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iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013

HurricaneJosh

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ZackH

ZackH

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I have no more information on the actual surge event that has taken place, than anyone else so far. The encouraging thing, from the perspective of their personal safety, should be the probability (not certainty though) that the smaller size of the storm should've mitigated against the theoretically higher potential storm surge, for such an extreme wind speed right at landfall.

Moreover, it seems highly likely that interaction with land, combined with the wind flow coming from over land into their particular intercept locality, should mean that they were shielded from experiencing the highest winds.

That being said, I suspect they still likely encountered category four conditions and the prospect of a category five type surge, being enhanced by the funneling effect pushing up through the bay, into the city. Time will tell the story of what has in fact actually occurred there.

I'm just trying to be as objective and optimistic as possible about the effects they have and/or are experiencing. My thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are for all those who are being impacted by this very dangerous and destructive storm!

Edit: Keeping in mind that it only requires a storm surge exceeding 18 feet to be characterized as a category five storm surge. I am very skeptical to believe the city actually received a surge exceeding 20 feet. These smaller intense TCs don't typically generate the same enormous surge as the much larger ones, even though they may have much higher winds-all things considered. At least that's my hope for them, and those who live there.

It's really not that small of a storm... Especially for a cat 5.

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

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It's really not that small of a storm... Especially for a cat 5.

I understand your point, and share your concern. The only point I'm making is that the supposed radius of Hurricane force winds only extended 45 nm from the center and TS force winds no more than 130 nm. That's a relatively small storm.

Edit: key word here being "relatively."

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Ian

Ian

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Based on the last coordinates Josh gave, this is where google earth plots them. Max elevation between him and the water to the east is 26 ft.

 

google puts it about a block closer to the water, based on the hotel name at least (24-25' right at location) -- ehh, same basic spot i guess, other side of block.

https://maps.google.com/maps?oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ie=UTF-8&q=Hotel+Alejandro&fb=1&gl=us&hq=hotel+alejandro+tacloban&cid=0,0,17916305346913616499&ei=0258UsH6GK7h4APOmIDgAw&ved=0CP0BEPwSMA8

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151868299734597&set=a.403096644596.183425.52553204596&type=1&theater

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Diego

Diego

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By interpolating, looks like he was about 1/4 mile from the nearest part of the bay to him (to his SE).

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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Paterno street. Ha.
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David Reimer

David Reimer

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It's concerning that none of the chasers have checked in... Especially Jim Edds of ExtremeStorms who said on Twitter at 6am local time that he was going out to get some shots - "back in a bit"

Please correct me if someone who is on location has checked in lately...

 

I can speak from experience that data networks are offline, if not completely destroyed. No reason to fret or worry. They're experienced chasers and can handle themselves. If we haven't heard from them by this time tomorrow then you can worry. 

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LocoAko

LocoAko

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It's concerning that none of the chasers have checked in... Especially Jim Edds of ExtremeStorms who said on Twitter at 6am local time that he was going out to get some shots - "back in a bit"

Please correct me if someone who is on location has checked in lately...

 

This is typical after a hurricane, not to mention one this severe. I wouldn't worry too much yet. A lot of the infrastructure there including cell phone towers are damaged/destroyed, I'm sure. 

 

Edited: Reimer beat me to it. :lol:

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Tullioz

Tullioz

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I can speak from experience that data networks are offline, if not completely destroyed. No reason to fret or worry. They're experienced chasers and can handle themselves. If we haven't heard from them by this time tomorrow then you can worry. 

It could very well take even longer than that before they are able to make contact with anyone outside of that area.

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

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It could very well take even longer than that before they are able to make contact with anyone outside of that area.

I totally agree. It took me three days before I was able to contact my wife to let her know I survived "Katrina." I suspect they're fine, and just simply have no available communications, at this point in time.

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Tullioz

Tullioz

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Josh has big ones. It will make an interesting story. I think in a case like this there is a good argument to be made not to do it, but they seemed to have done everything as wisely as possible. Edds looked like he was closer to the water than they were. I'm not really sure where he was or if that was temporary etc tho. 

 

In many of these situations the aftermath can be as bad or worse for the local population. I hope one week of supplies etc is enough. Honestly, my specific knowledge of where they are is limited but speaking more broadly to disasters in the region. I am a little worried about him heh. Partly because the best at these things can end up too good for their own good it seems. 

The affects of this storm will be felt long after the storm has passed. Even years. There are still thousands of people in Mindanao who rely on outside food sources almost a year after Bopha and many are still living in makeshift structures with tarpaulin roofs. When you approach some of the smaller villages you can see hundreds of blue rooftops where rehabilitation has been slow. I feel really bad for those who had no choice but to ride things out on Samar Island. Many, mostly young children will die from diarrhea and dehydration. This was a big problem in Cateel and Baganga for several weeks following Bopha.

 

A weeks supply of food will not suffice in a case like this and if they are unable to get out of there in a few days they will be relying on handouts. They may be a little better off where they are located, but they will have no choice but to share what they currently have with others or risk having it taken. Much of the food that was available was likely lost in flooding and such and most livestock and food crops have in all likelihood been destroyed.

 

Relief efforts will be hampered by corruption and self serving politicians.  Everyone wants to be credited for being the hero. Even after the Earthquake in Bohol just last month one of the mayors turned away the Red Cross because he felt he could do a better job at distributing relief goods despite the decades of experience they have. This was also a problem following Bopha as much of the international aid was distributed to the families of the elite and the politicians families. Many of the relief goods were divided up and repackaged in cellophane bags with the politicians names on them so they would be remember in the coming elections. Then you have the NPA who will be confiscating some of the grass root attempts at distributing goods to the rural areas. Even convoys with military escorts were attacked and looted following Bopha. 

 

So as bad as things are immediately following the typhoon, they will get much worse before they get better. And for some of the very poor in that region, things unfortunately will never get better. 

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Cypress

Cypress

Posted
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Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

 

Tropical Cyclones Mapping  http://dma.jrc.it/map/?application=CYCLONES

Haiyan  http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventid=41058&episodeid=21&eventtype=TC

 

a plethora of reliable info & links

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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CNN just had a climate expert from Columbia University on right now and they tried their damnedest to bait him into blaming Haiyan on global warming, but he did a fantastic job of explaining the all of the aspects and uncertainties surrounding that.

 

Then the host of course cuts him off and before moving on says "we seem to be getting these 100 year storms every other year"...ughhh

 

Anyhow, hoping we hear from these chasers soon but I'd guess they are in the midst of helping people in dire need right now.

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