HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Interesting-- from the JTWC's discussion: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED BETWEEN A SHARP WESTWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST REMAINS NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BIASED IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE STR, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 18Z shows a very sharp W turn and sticks firmly to the MMY solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 06Z shows a very sharp W turn and sticks firmly to the MMY solution. You mean the 18z GFS? That 12 time shift screwing you utc time too? But, to your question earlier, I think that Fitow will likely cross somewhere near or just N of MMY but likely not all the way to Naha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 You mean the 18z GFS? That 12 time shift screwing you utc time too? But, to your question earlier, I think that Fitow will likely cross somewhere near or just N of MMY but likely not all the way to Naha. Lolz, yeah. I meant 18Z. I fixed it. Thanks for the inputs-- going to talk with the guys now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Agree with wxmeddler about track. Actually the GFS had the Nward motion in its run...18z has a N motion the first 3 hours, then it changes more to the NW...which should be now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 It's not easy to track with that wobbly ragged eye...but it looks like there's a slight west component in the last couple of frames. Should be more confident in an hour or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Agreed, get on the next plane there. And Josh, on the E end of the island there is a narrow spit of land a good 10-15 meters above sea level with a well travled road that leads to a lighthouse. It looks like a popular tourist spot and the winds/view/wave action should be EPIC. Google Map link: http://goo.gl/maps/gJn95 Google Maps Street View Link: http://goo.gl/maps/SndiC I know that area well, I was there with Mark for typhoon Songda in 2011. It had peaked earlier as a cat. 5 and the waves were, as you can imagine, mind blowingly immense. Tough call this morning regarding whether to jump to Miyako, model consensus certainly suggests it's the right thing to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Agree with wxmeddler about track. Actually the GFS had the Nward motion in its run...18z has a N motion the first 3 hours, then it changes more to the NW...which should be now It's not easy to track with that wobbly ragged eye...but it looks like there's a slight west component in the last couple of frames. Should be more confident in an hour or 2 Thanks, Jorge! It's great to get an informed, objective viewpoint on this, because we were driving ourselves batsh*t crazy over breakfast trying ascertain whether a W turn was happening, or whether we were imagining it. Very interesting thing you pointed out-- that the GFS was showing the N motion. So, Jorge, do you think that hard left turn toward Miyako-jima looks plausible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yeah as Josh said thanks Jorge. I saw your post and thought it wasn't just us being crazy and wishing the westward turn haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Good morning James! (my name too, ) While probably not taking a westward turn right now, it definitely is slowing down. Which as all good TC chasers know, it's about ready to change direction. What are your flight options to MMY today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Good morning James! (my name too, ) While probably not taking a westward turn right now, it definitely is slowing down. Which as all good TC chasers know, it's about ready to change direction. What are your flight options to MMY today? Is it slowing down? If you are looking at the floaters you'll notice the timestamps from the earliest frames are closer to each other in time, so it gives the impression of slowing down. I still want to see a couple of more frames to be sure there's a definite westward component to the motion and not just some artifact of the wobbly, ragged eye. I still think there's a bit of westward motion now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Is it slowing down? If you are looking at the floaters you'll notice the timestamps from the earliest frames are closer to each other in time, so it gives the impression of slowing down. I still want to see a couple of more frames to be sure there's a definite westward component to the motion and not just some artifact of the wobbly, ragged eye. I still think there's a bit of westward motion now. Yeah, I noticed the frame rate increased with the visible scans but I think it is slowing just a tad. Need another hour or two to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yeah, I noticed the frame rate increased with the visible scans but I think it is slowing just a tad. Need another hour or two to confirm. I think you are right, it's not moving much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Btw, being slower than forecasted probably would increase the probabilities of a more leftward track...there's no doubt a ridge is going to eventually build, and it's a ridge that will stay put for a long time, hence all the W Moving cyclones the models are spitting. this means that the latitude gain will be mostly blocked, and the track will be dictated mostly by the orientation of said ridge...which looks like a it will allow a mostly WNW track...thinking about it, that's why some models show the sudden turn to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 0z GFS is just north of Miyako...much in line with my line of thoughts (and James' -wxmeddler- as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 0z GFS is just north of Miyako...much in line with my line of thoughts (and James' -wxmeddler- as well) Yeah, GFS takes it NNW rolling over to NW before WNW, the NNW trend lasts for another 12 hrs or so. I'm off to bed here, so good luck. You have my # if you need me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Hey, guys! We're in Miyako-jima (24.8N 125.3E). it's a tiny, isolated Japanese Island at . The 00Z GFS suggests the core of FITOW will be raking us hard late tomorrow night-- in about 30 hours. Hard to know what's going to happen, but this island seems our best bet-- at least for now. If it moves more N, we can always bail and fly back to OKA tonight. Full update soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Not staying for Karen seems an excellent move. Not the tightest core ever, but anything this side of the world this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 wow, looks like they really made the right call into miyakojima; this thing is really turning now... can't wait for them to get raked... Okinawa is starting to see some TS-force sustained; Miyako should start to see those winds as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 12z Euro and 12z GFS on top of each other...S eyewall for Miyakojima Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Japan is 9 hours ahead of UTC, so does that mean at least the beginning of the storm will be in the afternoon? Just thinking about video. One thing I have noticed before from Typhoon Hunter video, they seem to use underground powerlines more than we do in the US/Mexico, so the lighting is usually decent even for night time storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Eye looks to be warming/sharpening/contracting a bit on IR imagery. ADT is now supporting 100 kt per CIMSS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 looks like it took more of a northward jog in the past two hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 That eye is absolutely enormous. Fingers crossed that you guys get raked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Nice Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Starting to see posts on FB. Bed time soon, hoping awesome YouTubes tomorrow... https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 5, 2013 Author Share Posted October 5, 2013 Miyako-jima is getting really raked. Given the satellite imagery earlier today, I am astonished at the severity of it, and James is surprised, too. The wind is just screaming-- total eyewall conditions. You can't walk on streets that are parallel with the flow of the wind-- you'll get totally knocked down or blown across the intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Miyako-jima is getting really raked. Given the satellite imagery earlier today, I am astonished at the severity of it, and James is surprised, too. The wind is just screaming-- total eyewall conditions. You can't walk on streets that are parallel with the flow of the wind-- you'll get totally knocked down or blown across the intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Looks like Josh and James couldn't have picked a better spot. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.