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iCyclone Typhoon Chasing Expedition - Fall 2013


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Eh... I'd wait for another confirmation source with that one.

I'd wait for confirmation period during the middle of an event like this... Who knows what's for real when you have such limited communication available... I don't know if he's the same source as the person above...have no problem with Sibley though... He posts a lot of "breaking news" but it's not usually fantastical. I know there are some who aren't too keen on him but I've never had issue.

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Josh has big ones. It will make an interesting story. I think in a case like this there is a good argument to be made not to do it, but they seemed to have done everything as wisely as possible. Edds looked like he was closer to the water than they were. I'm not really sure where he was or if that was temporary etc tho. 

 

In many of these situations the aftermath can be as bad or worse for the local population. I hope one week of supplies etc is enough. Honestly, my specific knowledge of where they are is limited but speaking more broadly to disasters in the region. I am a little worried about him heh. Partly because the best at these things can end up too good for their own good it seems. 

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I'd wait for confirmation period during the middle of an event like this... Who knows what's for real when you have such limited communication available... I don't know if he's the same source as the person above...have no problem with Sibley though... He posts a lot of "breaking news" but it's not usually fantastical. I know there are some who aren't too keen on him but I've never had issue.

 

I haven't followed him in over two years, but before that point I wouldn't trust a thing. Still, his report is probably accurate (or will be proven accurate with time). Someone got one heck of a surge. 

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Based on the last coordinates Josh gave, this is where google earth plots them. Max elevation between him and the water to the east is 26 ft.

I questioned the 15 foot surge estimates put out prior. The configuration of that bay they were at the point of and the angle of LF look to me like huge surge up into that area.

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I questioned the 15 foot surge estimates put out prior. The configuration of that bay they were at the point of and the angle of LF look to me like huge surge up into that area.

Yeah based on the storm track and the configuration of the Leyte Gulf and the San Pedro Bay, I could see how a ton of water could get squeezed up into Tacloban.

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I questioned the 15 foot surge estimates put out prior. The configuration of that bay they were at the point of and the angle of LF look to me like huge surge up into that area.

But the wind was offshore until passage, and as the storm was booking to the west at over 20 MPH; there wasn't a whole lot of time to pile the water into that bay (San Pedro), perhaps the surge was enhanced by a seiche effect.

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I have no more information on the actual surge event that has taken place, than anyone else so far. The encouraging thing, from the perspective of their personal safety, should be the probability (not certainty though) that the smaller size of the storm should've mitigated against the theoretically higher potential storm surge, for such an extreme wind speed right at landfall.

Moreover, it seems highly likely that interaction with land, combined with the wind flow coming from over land into their particular intercept locality, should mean that they were shielded from experiencing the highest winds.

That being said, I suspect they still likely encountered category four conditions and the prospect of a category five type surge, being enhanced by the funneling effect pushing up through the bay, into the city. Time will tell the story of what has in fact actually occurred there.

I'm just trying to be as objective and optimistic as possible about the effects they have and/or are experiencing. My thoughts and most heartfelt prayers are for all those who are being impacted by this very dangerous and destructive storm!

Edit: Keeping in mind that it only requires a storm surge exceeding 18 feet to be characterized as a category five storm surge. I am very skeptical to believe the city actually received a surge exceeding 20 feet. These smaller intense TCs don't typically generate the same enormous surge as the much larger ones, even though they may have much higher winds-all things considered. At least that's my hope for them, and those who live there.

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