HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hey, guys,Since I decided to pull the trigger and actually go on a chase-- I'm in the Taipei Airport as I type this-- I thought I should start a thread. This actually looks to be not just one chase, but a series of chases-- as the GFS and Euro are suggesting that three distinct typhoons will threaten the region in the next couple of weeks. The timing is good for me workwise, so if the threats actually materialize, let's just say I'll probably use up all my 2013 vacation time here. The first threat on deck is FITOW-- a large, loose cyclone that's slooooowly getting its act together down in the Philippine Sea. The models make it quite strong and bring it up through the Okinawa Islands in about 60 hours-- so in a few minutes I'm hopping on a short flight to OKA to meet up with James Reynolds. Tonight we'll strategize about which of the little islands in the chain has the highest likelihood of getting raked-- and then we'll head there tomorrow. (Island chasing-- just what I always said I wouldn't do. Lolz. ) There's a good chance FITOW's core will slip between OKA and MMY and we'll miss it-- but one thing going for us is that this ain't no microcane-- it's a big, loose chinacane that'll probably have a large eye and RMW as it approaches.More soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Good luck Josh! Can't wait to see what you catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Hunter Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I made it to Okinawa, easy hop from Hong Kong. Will be heading to airport soon to meet Josh and my friend Mark who often joins me on these mad adventures. Fitow looking like it's bursting some very deep convection, can't be far off becoming a typhoon! I found a cool website to track their flight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Josh - Good luck chasin them chinacanes! Fitow looks to finally be intensifying now with an eye forming. The system right after Fitow looks to have two issues - 1) Lots of dry air/subsidence in the wake of Fitow 2) It is forecast to move so fast to the NW that it won't have much time to intensify. The 3rd system indicated by the models e. of the Philippines by next week has lots of potential and time to intensify. There are strong indications in the Euro/GFS ensemble MJO forecasts that the 3rd system will likely be the last typhoon in the series. With the MJO forecast to swing into phase 7 by ~Oct 13, the focus will likely shift to the Atlantic. I wouldn't recommend using up all your vacation in the WPac , because the MJO trend mentioned above, climo for +AMO years since 1995, plus the fact that the W. Carib/Gulf have been relatively favorable for development all season despite the sickly dry air covering the MDR, all favor a good chance of a W. Caribbean hurricane after Oct 15. Hey, guys,Since I decided to pull the trigger and actually go on a chase-- I'm in the Taipei Airport as I type this-- I thought I should start a thread. This actually looks to be not just one chase, but a series of chases-- as the GFS and Euro are suggesting that three distinct typhoons will threaten the region in the next couple of weeks. The timing is good for me workwise, so if the threats actually materialize, let's just say I'll probably use up all my 2013 vacation time here. The first threat on deck is FITOW-- a large, loose cyclone that's slooooowly getting its act together down in the Philippine Sea. The models make it quite strong and bring it up through the Okinawa Islands in about 60 hours-- so in a few minutes I'm hopping on a short flight to OKA to meet up with James Reynolds. Tonight we'll strategize about which of the little islands in the chain has the highest likelihood of getting raked-- and then we'll head there tomorrow. (Island chasing-- just what I always said I wouldn't do. Lolz. ) There's a good chance FITOW's core will slip between OKA and MMY and we'll miss it-- but one thing going for us is that this ain't no microcane-- it's a big, loose chinacane that'll probably have a large eye and RMW as it approaches.More soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Josh - Good luck chasin them chinacanes! Fitow looks to finally be intensifying now with an eye forming. The system right after Fitow looks to have two issues - 1) Lots of dry air/subsidence in the wake of Fitow 2) It is forecast to move so fast to the NW that it won't have much time to intensify. While I agree that 97W will have some subsidence to deal with, its much smaller in areal extent compared to Fitow. If the vertical wind shear remains low (and its forecasted to do so at this time) then the small size of the system might actually put it at an advantage compared to Fitow since the inflow could be more confined to the safely moistened air underneath the cirrus canopy. That's partially why these small systems are more prone to rapid intensity changes (other than inertia) since you don't need a large area of favorable conditions (low shear, high vertically deep RH, OHC) to allow for RI to take place. Fitow you need these conditions over an exceptionally large area, and as Fitow is discovering, the dry air to the north is not doing it any favors (despite what I said earlier this week!). The third system is also a high confidence forecast for genesis since its another one of these Monsoon Depression type disturbances (very large) which are typically modeled reasonably well for genesis (intensity is another story!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wait, your where?! Where have I been!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hey Josh! I'm excited for you; glad that you finally gave this basin a chance lol... wish you the best of luck out there!!! bring back some hawt footage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Quick model run down: 0z Euro: Fitow is a perfect 3-point goal between Okinawa and Miyakojima...stronger winds around Naha, as expected, but below hurricane force as Fitow is well outside the RMW. Second cyclone is just north of Okinawa 06z GFS : Fitow is a Miyakojima direct hit (dead center)...next one is Okinawa and the third is Miyako islands once again. Consensus is probably near the worst case scenario for track...that is...north of Miyakojima, which would be in the weaker side, and probably outside the RMW. Obviously things will change, and any wobble is a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Quick model run down: 0z Euro: Fitow is a perfect 3-point goal between Okinawa and Miyakojima...stronger winds around Naha, as expected, but below hurricane force as Fitow is well outside the RMW. Second cyclone is just north of Okinawa 06z GFS : Fitow is a Miyakojima direct hit (dead center)...next one is Okinawa and the third is Miyako islands once again. Consensus is probably near the worst case scenario for track...that is...north of Miyakojima, which would be in the weaker side, and probably outside the RMW. Obviously things will change, and any wobble is a game changer. Yep! This post is Ike a summary of our discussion tonight! For FITOW, the GFS is awesome, the Euro sucks. What's really interesting is that the Euro is a bit of a N outlier now, so we're curious to see if the 00Z shifts S or not. Very excited about the possibilities after FITOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Quick model run down: 0z Euro: Fitow is a perfect 3-point goal between Okinawa and Miyakojima...stronger winds around Naha, as expected, but below hurricane force as Fitow is well outside the RMW. Second cyclone is just north of Okinawa 06z GFS : Fitow is a Miyakojima direct hit (dead center)...next one is Okinawa and the third is Miyako islands once again. Consensus is probably near the worst case scenario for track...that is...north of Miyakojima, which would be in the weaker side, and probably outside the RMW. Obviously things will change, and any wobble is a game changer. For what it's worth, a slow-moving wobbling Fitow appears to have meandered to the east of most of the guidance at the moment which may make it more susceptible to recurvature and a further north trajectory down the road. The good news is that the shear appears to have relaxed a bit and Fitow has become much more symmetric over the last few hours. Outflow pattern has already improved significantly and it probably won't be much longer before the core begins to respond and finally tighten up at least somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 For what it's worth, a slow-moving wobbling Fitow appears to have meandered to the east of most of the guidance at the moment which may make it more susceptible to recurvature and a further north trajectory down the road. The good news is that the shear appears to have relaxed a bit and Fitow has become much more symmetric over the last few hours. Outflow pattern has already improved significantly and it probably won't be much longer before the core begins to respond and finally tighten up at least somewhat. Could be, but trend is for a stronger ridge with each run...12z GFS is just south of Miyakojima....perfect scenario to experience the strongest part of the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Could be, but trend is for a stronger ridge with each run...12z GFS is just south of Miyakojima....perfect scenario to experience the strongest part of the eyewall. Right, all else equal, a rightward jog would most likely translate to a more northward track. But as the 12Z GFS analysis demonstrates, all else is not equal. Also notice that the 582 dam contour associated with the southern edge of the trough axis (near about Wenzhou) is lightly further north on the 12Z analysis than on the 6 h forecast from the 6Z GFS. So less troughing would also translate to less of a northerly pull and perhaps enough or more than enough to counter the track wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Good luck Josh! Can't wait to see what you catch Thanks, Martin! You chasing Karen? Josh - Good luck chasin them chinacanes! Fitow looks to finally be intensifying now with an eye forming. The system right after Fitow looks to have two issues - 1) Lots of dry air/subsidence in the wake of Fitow 2) It is forecast to move so fast to the NW that it won't have much time to intensify. The 3rd system indicated by the models e. of the Philippines by next week has lots of potential and time to intensify. There are strong indications in the Euro/GFS ensemble MJO forecasts that the 3rd system will likely be the last typhoon in the series. With the MJO forecast to swing into phase 7 by ~Oct 13, the focus will likely shift to the Atlantic. I wouldn't recommend using up all your vacation in the WPac , because the MJO trend mentioned above, climo for +AMO years since 1995, plus the fact that the W. Carib/Gulf have been relatively favorable for development all season despite the sickly dry air covering the MDR, all favor a good chance of a W. Caribbean hurricane after Oct 15. Thanks, Justin! You are so right-- I shouldn't get ahead of myself with all this. The Gulf and Caribbean remain my home turf-- can't forget that. How funny that I'll come back to North America with the MJO pulse-- like I'm actually chasing it and not the cyclones! Wait, your where?! Where have I been!?!?! Oh, hey! You've been busy-- didn't wanna bother you. Yeah, got so desperate I switched over to the dark side. Hey Josh! I'm excited for you; glad that you finally gave this basin a chance lol... wish you the best of luck out there!!! bring back some hawt footage... Aw, thanks, Patrick!! Appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 12 GFS sticks very firm to the Miyako solution-- even further W than that. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 12Z Euro has shifted SW and is now closer to the GFS solution. The overall trend is toward Miyako.The models agree pretty well now on the location and timing of the cyclone's crossing. The key takeaway: near Miyako late Saturday night (Sunday morning):12Z GFS12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Yep, looks like Miyako Island will probably be the place to be! Good luck, Josh et al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Yep, looks like Miyako Island will probably be the place to be! Good luck, Josh et al. Hey, thanks, Mallow. Nice to see you floatin' in these threads-- I've missed ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hey, thanks, Mallow. Nice to see you floatin' in these threads-- I've missed ya. Going for the northern or the southern eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Going for the northern or the southern eyewall? Can't be so choosy with tiny islands spaced this far apart. It's about getting as close as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 And in a bizarre twist... Another typhoon should threaten the exact-same part of the Okinawa Island chain just 48 hr after FITOW passes through! Crazy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Yep, looks like Miyako Island will probably be the place to be! Good luck, Josh et al. Agreed, get on the next plane there. And Josh, on the E end of the island there is a narrow spit of land a good 10-15 meters above sea level with a well travled road that leads to a lighthouse. It looks like a popular tourist spot and the winds/view/wave action should be EPIC. Google Map link: http://goo.gl/maps/gJn95 Google Maps Street View Link: http://goo.gl/maps/SndiC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Agreed, get on the next plane there. And Josh, on the E end of the island there is a narrow spit of land a good 10-15 meters above sea level with a well travled road that leads to a lighthouse. It looks like a popular tourist spot and the winds/view/wave action should be EPIC. Thanks, James! I'll ask our James (Reynolds) about it. He's chased in Miyako-jima before and has gotten some good action there. He knows the turf like the back of his hand! So, James, you looked at the model trends and you agree, MMY? For whatever reason, the JMA still isn't sold on that solution. Their new advisory just came out and it doesn't seem to reflect the left trend I'm seeing in the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 And in a bizarre twist... Another typhoon should threaten the exact-same part of the Okinawa Island chain just 48 hr after FITOW passes through! Crazy: next_chinacane.png I think that's the real prize... Fitow will be a large and probably won't have a well organized inner core... 23W is a much different system though (much smaller in areal extent), and the environmental dry air surrounding the system should keep it from becoming too large. The convection has been bubbling for a few days now, and you can see how dry air has limited development thus far. However, shear has been on the decrease and the storm has a much more symmetrical outflow pattern, so dry air intrusions should become less of an issue. I think in terms of maximum wind speed, 23W has a higher celling than what Fitow will max out at (Cat 2 max wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 I think that's the real prize... Fitow will be a large and probably won't have a well organized inner core... 23W is a much different system though (much smaller in areal extent), and the environmental dry air surrounding the system should keep it from becoming too large. The convection has been bubbling for a few days now, and you can see how dry air has limited development thus far. However, shear has been on the decrease and the storm has a much more symmetrical outflow pattern, so dry air intrusions should become less of an issue. I think in terms of maximum wind speed, 23W has a higher celling than what Fitow will max out at (Cat 2 max wind) Yeah, although it's not central in my mind right now. I'm pretty excited about this thing after FITOW. I also noticed it will be moving pretty fast as it approaches. Re: FITOW's large size, I'm actually pretty cool with it-- it gives us a better opportunity to hit the core despite being confined to islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hmmm. The JTWC package just came out and they seem to have adjust the track NE a little, toward OKA. I'm puzzled by this, given that the 12Z Euro and GFS both shifted left. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hmmm. The JTWC package just came out and they seem to have adjust the track NE a little, toward OKA. I'm puzzled by this, given that the 12Z Euro and GFS both shifted left. Weird. Probably in response to the latest northward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 So, James, you looked at the model trends and you agree, MMY? For whatever reason, the JMA still isn't sold on that solution. Their new advisory just came out and it doesn't seem to reflect the left trend I'm seeing in the globals. I think the models that are taking this into N Taiwan and such are a bit mis-guided in how they are handling the size and depth of this system. I feel that Fitow isn't just going to be pushed over left by the building ridge, it's going to take its time in the left turn (ie. GFS/Euro). It wouldn't completely surprise me if it got towards Ishigaki, but I am betting against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Probably in response to the latest northward jog. Bingo. I think you're right, and it occurred to me after I posted that it might have to do with initial motion. If this keeps up and that turn is delayed, it would nail OKA pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 I think the models that are taking this into N Taiwan and such are a bit mis-guided in how they are handling the size and depth of this system. I feel that Fitow isn't just going to be pushed over left by the building ridge, it's going to take its time in the left turn (ie. GFS/Euro). It wouldn't completely surprise me if it got towards Ishigaki, but I am betting against it. But you think more Miyako than Naha? The models are suggesting Miyako, the JTWC is suggesting Naha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wow-- it's actually bumping a little E of due N and is basically back to 130E again! If this continues, that's got to really increased the threat to OKA. I was sure we'd be getting on a plane to MMY this morning; now I'm not so sure-- not with this continued, stubborn N motion. Gotta talk about it with the guys when they wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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