Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Obviously this should be worthy of a thread, the new 0z NAM is amazingly impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Another take on it. DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 0Z GGEM is further w with the snow...w SD is a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 546 AM MDT WED OCT 2 2013 ...STRONG FALL STORM TO BRING EARLY SNOW TO THE AREA... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION...RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SDZ024-028-029-WYZ054>058-022000- /O.CON.KUNR.WS.A.0008.131004T0000Z-131005T1200Z/ NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS- NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK- WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEAD...DEADWOOD...HILL CITY... MT RUSHMORE...CUSTER...GILLETTE...WRIGHT...MOORCROFT...HULETT... SUNDANCE...FOUR CORNERS...NEWCASTLE 546 AM MDT WED OCT 2 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT... CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. * MAIN HAZARD...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF SIX OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Snow fall totals off the 30/12z Nam are now greater than two feet for central SD according to Instant Weather Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Monster H7 jet on the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 4km NAM, which goes up to 60 hours, now starting to see over 12" for South Dakota, Nebraska, 24" in Black Hills, Laramie Mountain Range, Bighorns, southern Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Monster H7 jet on the 12Z NAM. when 45 knots happens in a situation like this, eastern Colorado gets 46 knot winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 when 45 knots happens in a situation like this, eastern Colorado gets 46 knot winds You mean coming down the slopes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 between all the output available on the 12z runs and what the trend has been, i'm thinking winter storm watches across all of SD near and west of the Missouri river right now, and maybe a special weather statement for southwestern and south-central north dakota. qpfs across the board are hinting as much as 1-2" liquid equivalent in central SD and 2-4" liquid equivalent in western SD. some areas above 4500-5000 ft, i wouldn't be surprised in 2+ foot accumulations, despite the time of year we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 You mean coming down the slopes? With boundary layer mixing, sometimes you can get wind gusts up to the wind speed at about 5000ft above ground. This may be true for any flat location. For us, 700mb is 5000ft above ground for the high plains. With mountain effects, I have sometimes experienced a few wind gusts above the 700mb wind of that day. (like 35mph, as opposed to 30mph) Now, of course, we may not have full mixing to 5000ft above ground on that day, and we may not have any specialized mountain effects right here. (There are always windy mountain passes that are going to have 50mph when the 700mb wind is 30mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 These systems are always tricky as moist convection is going to play a large role across the warm sector. I don't for one second remotely believe the NAM precip amounts in this neutral tilt wave configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The fiance and I bought our first house at 8,500' a couple months ago. We had our first snow this last Friday and have a Winter Storm Watch Thursday night through Friday for 6-12". This winter is going to be fun. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO1157 AM MDT WED OCT 2 2013...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERNFRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY....A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THISAFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAYNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THEMOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONTRANGE FOOTHILLS.COZ035-030200-/O.CON.KBOU.WS.A.0010.131004T0600Z-131005T0000Z/LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...NEDERLAND...RED FEATHER LAKES1157 AM MDT WED OCT 2 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUEON FRIDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.* WIND/VISIBILITY...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. VISIBILITIESWILL BE REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES DUE TO SNOWAND BLOWING SNOW.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOWPACKED. TRAVEL WILLBECOME HAZARDOUS WITH WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 These systems are always tricky as moist convection is going to play a large role across the warm sector. I don't for one second remotely believe the NAM precip amounts in this neutral tilt wave configuration. It's true 3-5" liquid equivalent is a little much for the cold sector. The GFS only has some spots of 2.5" with the cold sector, which is still pretty insane, considering that this could mean 25" of snow for higher elevations. The NAM and GFS seem to be disagreeing with total QPF for northern Colorado border. I guess it is to be expected with such a dynamic system, and the edge of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 0z NAM crushes the central and northern Black Hills with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 4km NAM FWIW (Pink areas represent 30"+) Awesome storm for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 record hit pending for early oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It certainly is one of the most amazing snow predictions that I have seen before October 15th, in areas that are not on a mountain. This is the 12z version of what was posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I was just looking at some of the camera around the Black Hills and northeast WY - there are quite a few leaves on the trees still! Going to see some significant tree damage from this snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Well, around here, the trees are pretty green still. The storm is starting to get going. I am seeing storm reports of 6-8" in western Montana already, even though not much is on the radar there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Just for sh*ts and giggles, the 18z NAM had over seventy six inches of snow for areas west of Rapid City 141 PM MDT THU OCT 3 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY. * TIMING...RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * MAIN HAZARD...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SNOW TO BRING NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES. * IMPACT...THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES BRANCHES THAT STILL CONTAIN FOLIAGE. POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Just for sh*ts and giggles, the 18z NAM had over seventy six inches of snow for areas west of Rapid City 96-108" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That blizzard warning for Rapid City is probably too low on snow accumulation, although with those winds it is going to be hell to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I firmly believe that we'll see at least a few reports of tundersnow in WY/SD. This system is really impressive to look at from a dynamics standpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That blizzard warning for Rapid City is probably too low on snow accumulation, although with those winds it is going to be hell to measure. I'll have to search for the Lead SD or Sturgis webcam for this one. I remember seeing some web cams from the Black Hills before. Very impressive drifts for Main St. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Here's a high quality webcam from Deadwood South Dakota. Looks great even on full screen. http://rapidcityjournal.com/webcams/deadwood/ Another high quality cam from Sturgis.. http://rapidcityjournal.com/webcams/sturgis-street/ EDIT: Think I just saw Al Swearengen walk by lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 NAM is out too lunch with 72"+ in BH! Would love to be camped out on a north facing slope near Deadwood or Lead for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Here's a high quality webcam from Deadwood South Dakota. Looks great even on full screen. http://rapidcityjournal.com/webcams/deadwood/ Another high quality cam from Sturgis.. http://rapidcityjournal.com/webcams/sturgis-street/ EDIT: Think I just saw Al Swearengen walk by lol. Sweet. Was looking for the Deadwood one. Another one in Spearfish. http://weather.weatherbug.com/SD/Deadwood-weather/weather-cams/local-cams.html?zcode=z6286&camera_id=SPRFH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Starting to see snow in the west-central Black Hills and over towards Devil's Tower in WY. Looks like down around Custer as well. Still 44° in Rapid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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