Huffwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 per Howiee Temperatures- Dec:-0.5 to +0.5 Jan:+1 Feb:+1 Overall +0.5 to +1.0 Snowfall for DCA: 10-15" Analog years 1947,51,59,60 So-nowhere near the blowtorch call that proved so right last winter. Believes DCA will not have a snow event exceeding 4". So to clarify-- is the analog year the first or second half-- EG 47-48 or 46-47?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's as simple as this..... in winter's following a gvt shutdown, DCA has received above average snowfall 8 of 12 times. Below normal temps 9 of 12 times. It's because of the lack of hot air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 yeah...that's kind of obvious dude,, but thanks? Then what was your question to him implying?? I've talked in depth with HM about this exact issue which is why i jumped in to lend a hand..Excuse me for trying to assist lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 So to clarify-- is the analog year the first or second half-- EG 47-48 or 46-47?? all four winters had more snow in NYC if the years start in December...like 1947-48 and 1960-61...1951-52 was snowier than 1950-51 and 1959-60 was much snowier than 1958-59... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 all four winters had more snow in NYC if the years start in December...like 1947-48 and 1960-61...1951-52 was snowier than 1950-51 and 1959-60 was much snowier than 1958 Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Isn't this fairly standard?...for height and SST anomalies to have a symbiotic relationship and feed off each other? Indeed it is and it's resembling 2011, 2008 and 1999 strongly (just the N pac-Atlantic coupling). That's an ugly sign for winter fans but not entirely hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Just thought I would bump this back up to run alongside CWG outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Just thought I would bump this back up to run alongside CWG outlook. I still like Keith's outlook..and that he didn't stick his neck out....last year he went for a home run and mostly nailed it...I think his outlook this year conveys the extreme uncertainty and I think using restraint was a good way to go.....it is still early, but I like his December call as of now given the potentially cold start.....I stuck my neck out this year on temps, and I think it might have been a bad winter to do that, even though I may verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I still like Keith's outlook..and that he didn't stick his neck out....last year he went for a home run and mostly nailed it...I think his outlook this year conveys the extreme uncertainty and I think using restraint was a good way to go.....it is still early, but I like his December call as of now given the potentially cold start.....I stuck my neck out this year on temps, and I think it might have been a bad winter to do that, even though I may verify.... He and I are close on Dec, he went -0.5 to +0.5 and I went 0 to -1. it's Jan where we really diverge as I went -3 to -5 but added that I had some misgivings that Dec could be the really cold one although I though Jan was the more likely very cold candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 He and I are close on Dec, he went -0.5 to +0.5 and I went 0 to -1. it's Jan where we really diverge as I went -3 to -5 but added that I had some misgivings that Dec could be the really cold one although I though Jan was the more likely very cold candidate. Can I see your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Can I see your forecast? It's somewhere here or over at uswxforums.com but I cant remember where. I went 0 to -1 for Dec., -3 to -5 for Jan and 0 to +2 for Feb, -1 to -1.5 overall. 10-15" snowfall at DCA. I added that I felt strongly about Feb temps but that Dec and not Jan might be the very cold month but felt Jan was more likely very cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's somewhere here or over at uswxforums.com but I cant remember where. I went 0 to -1 for Dec., -3 to -5 for Jan and 0 to +2 for Feb, -1 to -1.5 overall. 10-15" snowfall at DCA. I added that I felt strongly about Feb temps but that Dec and not Jan might be the very cold month but felt Jan was more likely very cold one. Balls out call for Jan.. I give you props Howie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It's somewhere here or over at uswxforums.com but I cant remember where. I went 0 to -1 for Dec., -3 to -5 for Jan and 0 to +2 for Feb, -1 to -1.5 overall. 10-15" snowfall at DCA. I added that I felt strongly about Feb temps but that Dec and not Jan might be the very cold month but felt Jan was more likely very cold one. This could end up being a really good call for December. Around -0.7 today after today for the month. We will warm later this week but not sure after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 per Howiee Temperatures- Dec:-0.5 to +0.5 Jan:+1 Feb:+1 Overall +0.5 to +1.0 Snowfall for DCA: 10-15" Analog years 1947,51,59,60 So-nowhere near the blowtorch call that proved so right last winter. Believes DCA will not have a snow event exceeding 4". Monthlies: C-/D+, Overall temp: B-, Snow: TBD, but B- Overall grade: C/C+.....He's had better and worse, though this isn't one of his better....mediocre...much better than mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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