Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Kinda early isn't Bob The only way to get an A grade is to study a lot first. Gun to head is no prolonged torch or freezer. Mixed temps averaging near normal for the djf period. Cold month Dec. 75%+/- climo snow. No compelling reason to be more bullish than that. My thoughts are really similar to KA, matt, orh, hm, etc. Lotta wait and see though. Ian looks to be the frontrunner with the weenie fanclub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 My full outlook is up: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/02/government-shutdown-winters-tend-to-be-cold-and-snowy-in-d-c/ The government sure does shut down a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It is pretty reasonable, though there are subjective factors and variables involved that can't really be measured...types of storms, cold, timing, size, how the burbs did, etc... Just wanted to let you know I changed the list slightly to add 61-62. I also took away 92-93 from the "w qbo-neutral" set since the shear stress wasn't clear-cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Nice writeup. I love this quote, sorta like a lot of posts on this forum: In closing, no meteorological reasoning behind a seasonal outlook was used here. The important thing is that you find a correlation, not reasoning. So, keep a lookout for the wholly bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Just wanted to let you know I changed the list slightly to add 61-62. I also took away 92-93 from the "w qbo-neutral" set since the shear stress wasn't clear-cut. at BWI, measurable snow every month NOV-MAR totaling 35.2" with only JAN a stinker at 2"; cold too! I'd take that in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I would suggest that those who proclaim "November calls the shots" engage in some actual long range forecasting themselves and see what the results are. For those observing this site for info I reject the idea that November is a big player-by then the dye is cast. I agree that when it comes November it is when the dye is cast it is not the month that calls the shots not anymore than October is. It makes sense to get the warm weather for October rather than November because sometimes the weather for Nov will last well into December and we don't want that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I agree that when it comes November it is when the dye is cast it is not the month that calls the shots not anymore than October is. It makes sense to get the warm weather for October rather than November because sometimes the weather for Nov will last well into December and we don't want that! Last year in Winchester, November was about 4.5 degrees under and Dec/Jan avg about 5 degrees over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Last year in Winchester, November was about 4.5 degrees under and Dec/Jan avg about 5 degrees over. Thar proves I guess nothing is written in stone! Feb and March were below normal although and I believe you received near normal snow for your area although the cities faired poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I would suggest that those who proclaim "November calls the shots" engage in some actual long range forecasting themselves and see what the results are. For those observing this site for info I reject the idea that November is a big player-by then the dye is cast. I think you are right to a large extent, but I do think November can be helpful for December temps....There have been years, like 2006 where you have a stable pattern in place and you know it will be hard to dislodge it very quickly....If you have a vortex locked up in the EPO region, especially north or west of AK, it is a pretty good bet it will be a stable feature for a while,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Just wanted to let you know I changed the list slightly to add 61-62. I also took away 92-93 from the "w qbo-neutral" set since the shear stress wasn't clear-cut. Thanks..As I mentioned I am not going to touch 57-70 simply because the ENSO state was so favorable for a southern stream during that stretch...doesn't mean those aren't good analogs, but they don't make sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 You know-to see people still post things about dart boards, 50/50, woooly bears in light of what has been revealed here over last 10 years is just plain ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I think you are right to a large extent, but I do think November can be helpful for December temps....There have been years, like 2006 where you have a stable pattern in place and you know it will be hard to dislodge it very quickly....If you have a vortex locked up in the EPO region, especially north or west of AK, it is a pretty good bet it will be a stable feature for a while,.... Yes. By November 15th/20th there is a good indication of what is ahead for next several weeks, maybe even a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Yes. By November 15th/20th there is a good indication of what is ahead for next several weeks, maybe even a month. I think that's what most people are referring to about november. Some second half of Nov patterns (as matt pointed out) can be a great tool for Dec predictions. Equating Nov to the predict and entire djf period is quite inaccurate though. Dec is a biggie for the entire winter period when there is an anomalous + or - AO. We've hashed that out at great length the last 3 years or so. I think one of the most important things I've learned about d10-15 on the models is that they can be used with skill for predicting how stubborn a pattern can be. When the flip remains in d10+ range then it's safe to assume that nothing is happening for quite a while and the models are premature in switching things. Kinda stating the obvious but there is skill when interpreting what the lr is showing. I've watched many "flips to a better pattern" get delayed 15 days or more. I've also seen the opposite when our "great pattern" is going away and winter cancels start flying just to have the great pattern last much longer than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I think that's what most people are referring to about november. Some second half of Nov patterns (as matt pointed out) can be a great tool for Dec predictions. Equating Nov to the predict and entire djf period is quite inaccurate though. Dec is a biggie for the entire winter period when there is an anomalous + or - AO. We've hashed that out at great length the last 3 years or so. I think one of the most important things I've learned about d10-15 on the models is that they can be used with skill for predicting how stubborn a pattern can be. When the flip remains in d10+ range then it's safe to assume that nothing is happening for quite a while and the models are premature in switching things. Kinda stating the obvious but there is skill when interpreting what the lr is showing. I've watched many "flips to a better pattern" get delayed 15 days or more. I've also seen the opposite when our "great pattern" is going away and winter cancels start flying just to have the great pattern last much longer than originally thought. Exhibit A: Winter of 2001/2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Thanks..As I mentioned I am not going to touch 57-70 simply because the ENSO state was so favorable for a southern stream during that stretch...doesn't mean those aren't good analogs, but they don't make sense to me Yeah, I wouldn't use them in a temperature composite for the CONUS / East Coast either, in a raw-sense. I don't like how the global circulation seems so retracted poleward and the + height anomalies are coupling to the SST anomalies in the N PAC / Atlantic. Modeling has this continuing for the next 1-2 weeks, easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Yeah, I wouldn't use them in a temperature composite for the CONUS / East Coast either, in a raw-sense. I don't like how the global circulation seems so retracted poleward and the + height anomalies are coupling to the SST anomalies in the N PAC / Atlantic. Modeling has this continuing for the next 1-2 weeks, easy. Isn't this fairly standard?...for height and SST anomalies to have a symbiotic relationship and feed off each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Isn't this fairly standard?...for height and SST anomalies to have a symbiotic relationship and feed off each other? He's saying he doesnt like it for what it might imply heading into the cold season here. (bad for cold/snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 He's saying he doesnt like it for what it might imply heading into the cold season here. (bad for cold/snow) yeah...that's kind of obvious dude,, but thanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 Cool with periods of warm.. 5-15" is my call for one of the 3 airports, which may or may not be in the DC area, but could include Leesburg or Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 79-80 type winter gets everyone south of DCA banned for life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 79-80 type winter gets everyone south of DCA banned for life thats not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 79-80 type winter gets everyone south of DCA banned for life Southern sliders galore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Southern sliders galore? Yeah, was just joking-- it's not analog that's on the table. I think VAB had 3 storms over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Yeah, was just joking-- it's not analog that's on the table. I think VAB had 3 storms over a foot. remember that winter like it was last year after PDII, watching that early March, 1980 storm crush them was tough to take, but I did get around 4 or 5" out of it (memory fades when I want to forget storms like that one!), so it wasn't a complete loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 remember that winter like it was last year after PDII, watching that early March, 1980 storm crush them was tough to take, but I did get around 4 or 5" out of it (memory fades when I want to forget storms like that one!), so it wasn't a complete loss Yeah, I was in New Castle, DE, I think we had 4 inches and my Dad telling me 2 feet in NC. Down here in LYH-- It was a 30 inch winter with 10 inches in early Jan, 8 in early March and 3-4 3-5 inch events added in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Yeah, I was in New Castle, DE, I think we had 4 inches and my Dad telling me 2 feet in NC. Down here in LYH-- It was a 30 inch winter with 10 inches in early Jan, 8 in early March and 3-4 3-5 inch events added in. on top of getting whiffed by the storm that night, I was watching this game and remember wanting to strangle someone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_ACC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 on top of getting whiffed by the storm that night, I was watching this game and remember wanting to strangle someone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_ACC_Men%27s_Basketball_Tournament Was Gminski on that Duke team? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 It's as simple as this..... in winter's following a gvt shutdown, DCA has received above average snowfall 8 of 12 times. Below normal temps 9 of 12 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Was Gminski on that Duke team? yes, that pri*k; only Buck Williams was able to stop him when Gminski was at Duke, but not every game; I think Williams did OK that night but neither was dominant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's as simple as this..... in winter's following a gvt shutdown, DCA has received above average snowfall 8 of 12 times. Below normal temps 9 of 12 times. That's an awesome stat! Wonder if it has anything to do with snowballs in hell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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