KA Winter Forecast 2013-2014

[Ji]

per Howiee

Temperatures-

Dec:-0.5 to +0.5

Jan:+1

Feb:+1

Overall +0.5 to +1.0

Snowfall for DCA: 10-15"

Analog years 1947,51,59,60

So-nowhere near the blowtorch call that proved so right last winter. Believes DCA will not have a snow event exceeding 4".

[aldie 22]

That works

[Ji]

If dca can get 10-15....ya that works

[Deck Pic]

nice outlook...not dissimilar from my early thoughts, though I think the snow call may be a little high

[HM]

nice outlook...not dissimilar from my early thoughts, though I think the snow call may be a little high

 

If we were to define a snowy winter by both DCA and BWI being above normal in the same season, here is a list of snowy / non-snowy neutral winters, since 1950, I came up with:

 

Snowy:

59-60

60-61

66-67

78-79

81-82

 

Not snowy:

80-81

89-90

90-91

93-94

96-97

01-02

03-04

12-13

 

Close-calls:

61-62

62-63

79-80

85-86

92-93

 

How does this information look to you? Is it a reasonable assessment? I may have missed some years and I didn't do anything for winter before 1950.

 

 

If you want a list of +QBO neutral/winters (first group is snowy, second is not):

 

59-60

61-62*

66-67

78-79

85-86*

 

80-81

90-91

93-94

[Deck Pic]

If we were to define a snowy winter by both DCA and BWI being above normal in the same season, here is a list of snowy / non-snowy neutral winters, since 1950, I came up with:

 

Snowy:

59-60

60-61

66-67

78-79

81-82

 

Not snowy:

80-81

89-90

90-91

93-94

96-97

01-02

03-04

12-13

 

Close-calls:

62-63

79-80

85-86

92-93

 

How does this information look to you? Is it a reasonable assessment? I may have missed some years and I didn't do anything for winter before 1950.

 

 

If you want a list of +QBO neutral/winters (first group is snowy, second is not):

 

59-60

66-67

78-79

85-86*

92-93*

 

80-81

90-91

93-94

 

It is pretty reasonable, though there are subjective factors and variables involved that can't really be measured...types of storms, cold, timing, size, how the burbs did, etc...

 

I know you mentioned we can't assume neutral after nina applies, but I am pretty much eliminating any of those good winters as analogs...they all occurred after ninos or in warm enso periods... the period of 1957-1970 is pretty much off the table for me...as is 1976-83 (+PDO as well of course).....

 

I mentioned in the other thread that the big wildcard for me is cold....with some variation, it is a very safe bet that we will have median or below snow this winter...we know the storm track will be to our north and west...at least cold gives us some options...front thump, clippers, OV low, dummy end of miller B, threading the needle when we have a PNA spike, perfectly timed phase, some perfectly placed cutoff........we'll probably get a split flow pattern at some point which can generate its own quasi southern stream...

 

but it is pretty much a certainty in my opinion, that during the core climo producing window of winter, we won't have a southern stream, unless we get some miracle nino...

[HM]

It is pretty reasonable, though there are subjective factors and variables involved that can't really be measured...types of storms, cold, timing, size, how the burbs did, etc...

 

I know you mentioned we can't assume neutral after nina applies, but I am pretty much eliminating any of those good winters as analogs...they all occurred after ninos or in warm enso periods... the period of 1957-1970 is pretty much off the table for me...as is 1976-83 (+PDO as well of course).....

 

I mentioned in the other thread that the big wildcard for me is cold....with some variation, it is a very safe bet that we will have median or below snow this winter...we know the storm track will be to our north and west...at least cold gives us some options...front thump, clippers, OV low, dummy end of miller B, threading the needle when we have a PNA spike, perfectly timed phase, some perfectly placed cutoff........we'll probably get a split flow pattern at some point which can generate its own quasi southern stream...

 

but it is pretty much a certainty in my opinion, that during the core climo producing window of winter, we won't have a southern stream, unless we get some miracle nino...

 

Thanks for the response and I agree, overall, with your winter thoughts here. I thought it was pretty cool how the "snowy vs. non-snowy" look at the DC-BWI corridor seems to have a decadal variability there. I don't think that is a fluke either in the data set. 

 

So from this perspective, you can see why 2013-14 is kind of a new thing, yet again, for us. A neutral ENSO / +QBO combination has been quite rare, not occurring since the early 1990s. Throw in the unusual "close-call El Nino" last autumn (heck even the weak solar cycle) and this becomes uncharted territory. lol

[Deck Pic]

Thanks for the response and I agree, overall, with your winter thoughts here. I thought it was pretty cool how the "snowy vs. non-snowy" look at the DC-BWI corridor seems to have a decadal variability there. I don't think that is a fluke either in the data set. 

 

So from this perspective, you can see why 2013-14 is kind of a new thing, yet again, for us. A neutral ENSO / +QBO combination has been quite rare, not occurring since the early 1990s. Throw in the unusual "close-call El Nino" last autumn (heck even the weak solar cycle) and this becomes uncharted territory. lol

 

i hope we don't have 90-91 again 

[mitchnick]

i hope we don't have 90-91 again 

80-81 is far from a gem too

[Deck Pic]

80-81 is far from a gem too

 

Here are my winters in Annandale, VA, about 12 miles west of DCA at 300'.....80-81 was awful, 89-90 was surprisingly good....

 

80-81 - 4"

81-82 - 30"

82-83 - 35"

83-84 - 15"

84-85 - 10"

85-86 - 17"

86-87 - 35"

87-88 - 20"

88-89 - 10"

89-90 - 25"

[Ian]

i hope we don't have 90-91 again

That's one of my analogs

[Ian]

8" of snow would be so huge these days

[ORH_wxman]

That's one of my analogs

 

 

I would be surprised if we got an AO as positive as that winter in our current regime. If the sun wakes up though in the next month or two, I'd be more scared...high solar during neutrals have produced some putrid results before. Sample size isn't great admittedly, but it does make some sense from a physical standpoint.

[Eskimo Joe]

Sounds like a Meh Climo winter forecast with nickle and dime storms.

[Huffwx]

I would be surprised if we got an AO as positive as that winter in our current regime. If the sun wakes up though in the next month or two, I'd be more scared...high solar during neutrals have produced some putrid results before. Sample size isn't great admittedly, but it does make some sense from a physical standpoint.

 

 

Was my senior year of HS. Had one good 4-5 inch event in early Jan that was a "surprise" and another messy 2-3 incher that flipped to rain. That was it. (New Castle, Delaware, 20 miles SW of Philly)

[WinterWxLuvr]

Jan 1, 1990 to Dec 1, 1992 was about as bad of a stretch of winter weather as I can remember.

[uncle W]

1981-82 is a good analog but October 2013 is starting off quite warm...October 1981 was quite cool...I won't toss it yet but it's crumbled into a ball and it's in my hand...There have been some great and terrible winters with early October heat...One of those years was 1995...

[mitchnick]

1981-82 is a good analog but October 2013 is starting off quite warm...October 1981 was quite cool...I won't toss it yet but it's crumbled into a ball and it's in my hand...There have been some great and terrible winters with early October heat...One of those years was 1995...

yep Unc, I posted in the Oct. thread earlier today that 10/95 was +5 degrees at BWI

unless it's an Oct., 1976, our winters don't show their hand in October

otoh, November is usually a different story

[uncle W]

yep Unc, I posted in the Oct. thread earlier today that 10/95 was +5 degrees at BWI

unless it's an Oct., 1976, our winters don't show their hand in October

otoh, November is usually a different story

October 1947 and 1995 were very warm in NYC...They both had a cold November and are the top two snowiest winters on record for us...winters with a warm October and cold November had a KU snowstorm that winter...

NYC's snowiest winters...Oct-Nov departure and winters departure...

season......Oct......Nov......Dec-Feb...

1946-47...+4.8.....+2.8.....-0.7

1947-48...+6.7......-3.5.....-5.5

1948-49....-0.2.....+4.7....+3.0

1955-56...+2.9......-3.4.....-2.8

1957-58....-0.7.....+1.7.....-2-2

1959-60...+2.9......-1.9....+0.7

1960-61...+1.2.....+2.0.....-3.8

1963-64...+4.9.....+2.7.....-2.2

1966-67....-0.7.....+1.2.....-1.4

1968-69...+3.6......-0.8.....-2.6

1977-78....-2.0......-0.4.....-5.2

1978-79....-2.0.....+0.1.....-2.8

1982-83...+1.6.....+2.7....+2.4

1992-93....-2.4......-1.2....+0.4

1993-94....-0.9.....+1.1.....-4.3

1995-96...+4.7......-4.1.....-3.2

2000-01...+0.1......-2.4.....-2.0

2002-03....-1.7......-1.7.....-4.3

2003-04....-1.8.....+2.3.....-3.1

2004-05....-0.9.....+0.5.....-0.1

2005-06...+1.0.....+1.9....+1.8

2008-09....-1.8......-1.9.....-1.3

2009-10....-1.9.....+3.5.....-1.7

2010-11...+1.2.....+0.2.....-2.8

2012-13...+1.1......-3.8....+1.2

[clueless]

Sounds like a Meh Climo winter forecast with nickle and dime storms.

Better than the half-pence crap the last few winters have produced.

[easternsnowman]

November is the month that usually gives us an indication of the coming winter, we usually know by Thanksgiving where we are headed, never have been sold on October telling us about the upcoming winter..

[HM]

i hope we don't have 90-91 again

It keeps showing up and has shown up for a while as an analog. I think it will slowly lose its similarities as we move into winter...by how much is the question. The solar, stratospheric state then is not even close to analogous.

[uncle W]

It keeps showing up and has shown up for a while as an analog. I think it will slowly lose its similarities as we move into winter...by how much is the question. The solar, stratospheric state then is not even close to analogous.

Sept. 2013 had a similar temperature departure as Sept. 1990 across the nation...But 1990 had a very different Summer pattern...August was very wet and this year was hotter...enso wise 1990 was a +neutral while this year is a minus neutral as of now...I could think of worse analogs...NYC managed 25" of snow 1990-91 with well above average temperatures...

[Bob Chill]

Fair call imo. I don't think any of us have had any dissimilar expectations.

One thing about analogs this year is there aren't really any good ones and even the ones that are considered "good" have reasons to think they're "not so good".

There's a lot of bust potential temp wise in both directions. Imo- I have a feeling this winter will be made up of relatively short periods of warm and cold spread out pretty evenly. Unlike the last few where crap dominated endlessly early on and then flipped.

Below climo snow is a good call for sure. But nature can throw a dog a bone so if the snow call busts low then I wouldnt be all that surprised. If it busts high then I'm going to randomly break things for a couple months.

In addition to the God awful Pac for the first 6 weeks, the nao was also particularly unfriendly last winter. Basically a non-factor door to door. If we can get some West based blocking then the door is wide open for modest events down here in the deep south. Unfortunately we won't have any idea if that happens until it basically happens.

[WEATHER53]

I would suggest that those who proclaim "November calls the shots" engage in some actual long range forecasting themselves and see what the results are. For those observing this site for info I reject the idea that November is a big player-by then the dye is cast.

[Ian]

My full outlook is up:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/02/government-shutdown-winters-tend-to-be-cold-and-snowy-in-d-c/

[ravensrule]

My full outlook is up:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/02/government-shutdown-winters-tend-to-be-cold-and-snowy-in-d-c/

Nice writeup. I love this quote, sorta like a lot of posts on this forum:

In closing, no meteorological reasoning behind a seasonal outlook was used here.

[uncle W]

My full outlook is up:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/02/government-shutdown-winters-tend-to-be-cold-and-snowy-in-d-c/

I thought we had more snow with Democratic Presidents?...nice artical...

[Bob Chill]

Good read Ian. You have equal chances at being right as everyone else.

I'm releasing my forecast on Feb 20th

[WinterWxLuvr]

Good read Ian. You have equal chances at being right as everyone else.

I'm releasing my forecast on Feb 20th

Kinda early isn't Bob