Stebo Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Going to pass pretty close to the radar site, decently populated in that part of the state North of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looking at the visible satellite, almost looks like things are about to pop in eastern NE. Surprised the SPC didn't shift the tornado probs a wee bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Heading west towards Columbus, NE. CU field is looking agitated on vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Tornado Watch for eastern Nebraska and western edge of Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Everyone stay safe! URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA EASTERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 70/30 Tor. Incredible for this area. Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (70%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (50%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (90%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 34kft southwest of Columbus NE near Silver Creek. Looks like initiation has in fact initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Just passed through Missouri Valley, IA and crossed into NE... heading towards initiating cells but looks like they are still struggling just a bit to really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Some CIN to overcome, but RAP says it happens over the next few hours. Satellite loop looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Sitting just north of Fremont, NE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I think the next two hours are going to light up over eastern NE and NW KS, then gradually into SW third of IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Explosive growth with the storm just north of Columbus last few scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Impressive development underway now in ern NE...cells are already rotating aloft and are shaped like kidney beans...full steam ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Explosive growth with the storm just north of Columbus last few scans. 40kft tops now showing up and already look nice on BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 the cell that ignited near OLU and is headed towards OFK and LCG. but it looks like the main line has yet to fill in between OLU and BIE. probably the last of the cap has yet to break. probably another 60 mins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Some Quarters about to fall 6 miles SE of Madison NE. The storm will move toward Stanton by 410 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Im getting a little skeptical, unless it's a nighttime deal like that storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Im getting a little skeptical, unless it's a nighttime deal like that storm yesterday. Seriously? It's just starting. The cell at the intersect of Madison, Stanton, and Platte Counties already has a pendant and a developing circulation. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Was just gonna say, storms are already firing now. They are maturing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 19z HRRR holds the best off until after 7, and then a fairly healthy squall line crosses most of Iowa. I just have big time doubts about widespread tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yah... don't know how you can be skeptical... the Madison storm is starting to mature... watching it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 19z HRRR holds the best off until after 7, and then a fairly healthy squall line crosses most of Iowa. I just have big time doubts about widespread tornadoes. Models have a spin up time necessary for the first few hours they run. Given that we're inside that time range, it's time to stop using them and actually look at what's really happening, and what's happening is the likely beginning of a tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 One storm doesn't sell an outbreak and I'm not saying it won't happen, but I've been watching the sky here for hours as well as radar and satellite trends. Sure, a few storms and probably a squall line after, but we're not seeing many supercells at all. Maybe it's just my mind being stuck in New England, as this is the first time I'm actually out in a legit threat. Just stating my opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Approaching the mentioned Madison/Stanton storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 This is why living and dying by a Hi-Res model is dangerous... especially while nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 so, any visual on-the-ground pics from west of LNK out there? looks like a convergence-line is trying to do something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Low and mid level SRH continues to increase and spread eastward into IA from Nebraska. Whatever forms is gonna spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 This is why living and dying by a Hi-Res model is dangerous... especially while nowcasting.I'm not living or dying by any model. In fact, I've mainly been focusing on parameters all day and barely paid attention to simulated radar minute details. Since there was some concern about my opinion, I simply cited a model run. Didn't say it was set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 I'm not living or dying by any model. In fact, I've mainly been focusing on parameters all day and barely paid attention to simulated radar minute details. Since there was some concern about my opinion, I simply cited a model run. Didn't say it was set in stone. You supplied no other reasoning and have no other reasoning you back up your assertion. We already have several cells maturing and several more in their incipient stages in an environment that is honestly primed for strong-violent tornado activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 You supplied no other reasoning and have no other reasoning you back up your assertion. We already have several cells maturing and several more in their incipient stages in an environment that is honestly primed for strong-violent tornado activity.Okay, we'll see if we get numerous strong-violent tornadoes tonight. I hope you're right. Perhaps I just need a breather, 1200 miles driven on no sleep, maybe my mind is just playing tricks on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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