heavy_wx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 6hr projection off the mesoanalysis ***time sensitive*** of the effective sig tor and 0-3km CAPE surface vorticity Pretty strong signals torward Western IA of any supercell having a very good potential of a strong tornado associated with them around 21 to 23z. Yes, low-level shear values forecast by the RAP are quite impressive; >300 m2s-2 0-1 km SRH over eastern Iowa at 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I think most of SPC's concerns remain focused on convective evolution. For instance, RAP remains hesitant on destabilization in the Missouri River area, more bullish further east. The round of supercells the HRRR develops this evening around the MIssouri River do not backbuild enough to tap the extreme instability further south. Of course the parameters are such that the supercells to the east will rotate as well -- but overall I think there's still quite a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I'm mid-way between Iowa City and Davenport and the sky is brightening quickly. SCT to the south. A few TCU on the horizon in that direction too, but relatively small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 My research shows that on Oct.14, 1966 twelve tornadoes hit IA including an F-5 at Belmond. Blizzard warnings were out for CO and WY and 4 inches of snow later fell in the Sioux City area. IA certainly has a record of powerful storms in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I'm liking how Karen has so much more media coverage than the severe wx/blizzard combined even though the latter has the highest impact ceiling by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Rapid recovery well underway now across ern NE and wrn IA. It's only a matter of when, not if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Hanging in west Omaha - ready to move north and west to meet the arc of storms that look like they will form in the next 2 to 3 hours. looking like just north of Grand Island is where the triple point is setting up expect initiation in 1 to 2 hours to the northeast of that area, then quickly move northeast. Satellite trends are really holding that boundary further south than any of the models except maybe the RAP have shown. I think far northeast Nebraska, southern MN, northwest Iowa may be too far north. The further south that boundary stays the more ominous it becomes for Omaha metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 I think most of SPC's concerns remain focused on convective evolution. For instance, RAP remains hesitant on destabilization in the Missouri River area, more bullish further east. The round of supercells the HRRR develops this evening around the MIssouri River do not backbuild enough to tap the extreme instability further south. Of course the parameters are such that the supercells to the east will rotate as well -- but overall I think there's still quite a lot of uncertainty. Shouldn't be any questions by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Still in Council Bluff, but getting ready to head north on I-29 a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Heading west on I-80, just passed Iowa City. Will likely keep this heading for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Rapid recovery well underway now across ern NE and wrn IA. It's only a matter of when, not if. Yep, temperatures in SE NE have jumped between 4-7 degrees in the past hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 My research shows that on Oct.14, 1966 twelve tornadoes hit IA including an F-5 at Belmond. Blizzard warnings were out for CO and WY and 4 inches of snow later fell in the Sioux City area. IA certainly has a record of powerful storms in October. Yeah I have been thinking about that event for the past few days. Though the Belmond tornado probably would be rated EF3/EF4 by today's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yeah I have been thinking about that event for the past few days. Though the Belmond tornado probably would be rated EF3/EF4 by today's standards. It would likely be EF4...but still...it was pretty devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Going to sit in Missouri Valley for a little while. A little worried about the road network and river crossings in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Mesoscale discussion out for ne KS, eastern Nebraska, nw MO and on into IA with Omaha smack dab in the middle. 80% prob of tor watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Heading north to sit in Missouri City...probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 These colors on the HRRR's updraft helicity scale are new to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I may venture out west of Oklahoma City a bit later this afternoon. The past few runs of the HRRR have been consistent in showing a discrete supercell (tail-end charlie) moving towards the OKC metro from the west/southwest this evening. At least that would prove entertaining for structure shots and maybe some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 These colors on the HRRR's updraft helicity scale are new to me... I know you're not all that surprised though, environment is primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looks like we might soon have some svr warned hailers w/nw of Des Moines area if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Clarinda, red oak, creston Iowa area all good spots i think. And this area from somewhere around ottumwa or just northeast of there if the warm front lights up later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The storm west of Des Moines got interesting in a hurry. Has some weak rotation, and appears to be intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looks like we might soon have some svr warned hailers w/nw of Des Moines area if trends continue. That storm is putting out some loud thunder. I can hear it booming and it's a good 25-30 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 I know you're not all that surprised though, environment is primed. Oh not at all...just don't even remember seeing those high of values off the HRRR before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 The storm west of Des Moines got interesting in a hurry. Has some weak rotation, and appears to be intensifying. Tight aloft and appears to be descending... Look's like we're starting with the warm front this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0128 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NEB/NERN KS/SWRN AND CENTRAL IA/NWRNMOCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 041828Z - 042030ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...ONGOING EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE MID MOVALLEY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE RISK. WWISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SEVEREPOTENTIAL -- INCLUDING THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES -- EVOLVES.DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THEWAY OF SURFACE-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOWOVER CENTRAL NEB AND ASSOCIATED/ATTENDANT COLD/WARM FRONTS. AN 18ZRAOB FROM TOP INDICATES THAT CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGHHEATING/MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE INVERSION WITH TIME --AIDED BY ASCENT INVOF THE SURFACE SYSTEM.ATTM...GREATEST RISK FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST OVERSERN NEB AND NERN KS -- I.E. JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW --SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AS HEATING OF THE MOISTBOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SUPPORTS MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOWINTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVERATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL ONSET OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.ORGANIZATION WILL BE AIDED BY A FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDFIELD FEATURING FLOW THAT VEERS MARKEDLY WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLYNEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSSFAR SERN NEB AND THE NRN TIER OF NWRN MO COUNTIES. ALONG WITH ANEVENTUAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...THE RISKFOR A FEW TORNADOES IS ALSO APPARENT -- PARTICULARLY WITH STORMSDEVELOPING IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE WARMFRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Oh not at all...just don't even remember seeing those high of values off the HRRR before... And it's been several runs in a row in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Rotation really tightening hard aloft now near Dallas Center...should probably see the first TOR of the day shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looks like perhaps some weakly rotating storms in NC IL as well, where there the WF is draped. (null) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Rotation really tightening hard aloft now near Dallas Center...should probably see the first TOR of the day shortly. Looks like it may head right at the DMX 88D, or just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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