andyhb Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The 00z NAM is just brutal across nrn IA... Gotta love 0-3 km EHIs approaching 10 in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 TDS SE of Lincoln now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 and btw, TOG near Hickman headed towards Bennet SevereStudios @severestudios4m Confirmed tornado and up to 2" hail moving toward BENNET, NEB. Take cover now! (10:14pm CDT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 It's going to be one heck of a day in the Plains tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Weak TDS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Weak TDS: New report mentions a lot of tree debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Major couplet in behind now as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Houston, we have a problem to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Nice little hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Hail being shown on 1011 Lincoln's website http://www.1011now.com/home/headlines/Baseball-Sized-Hail-in-Wilber-226403161.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 and nebraska still going. 0308z_b.png and yea, i did see the 00z nam, and well, northern IA looks like definite, i-90 and south in MN still possible for big trouble. Jim take a look at this, a Marine layer off the lakes at the surface has cut the SB Cape off at the MN/IA border, nice easterly winds showing up, the rest of the column is still favorable and MU cape is elevated, if it doesn't dry out to much at the surface severe is still possible even as far north as MSP, just not Tornadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I could see that. not ruling out hail up here in the metro. but the nastiest of the nasty should be near i-90. as for NE, still ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Tight couplet south of Dorchester now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Eastern cell is cranking up again, large tornado with damage per Piotrowski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Big tornado doing damage with the east cell per Jeff Pitrowski, rain wrapped, major debris falling out of the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 TDS signature on the dual-pol correlation field, 0318z- right at the tornado report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Debris ball there near Palmyra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 House destroyed 1 mile south of Bennet in the new warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Looks nice on BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 0344 2 ENE PALMYRA OTOE NE 4071 9635 STILL DOING DAMAGE. (OAX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 First runs of the RAP are coming in concerning tomorrow and the threat appears to be centered further south than the NAM (at least around 20z), but the indices are just as impressive if not more so than the NAM. Dew points are likely overdone a bit though, but the instability/shear combo is still dangerous looking to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Timing seems a bit slower to me with some of the recent runs of various models. I actually like southeast SD, or northeast NE for a target at this point. Love the high theta-e funneling right into that area later tomorrow afternoon juxtaposed with extremely impressive shear profiles. I like the Yankton to Springfield South Dakota area the best at this point.. 00z 4km NAM cape at 23z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Wrapping up again near Weeping Water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 1106 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1103 PM TORNADO 1 WNW PALMYRA 40.71N 96.41W 10/03/2013 OTOE NE STORM CHASER Per 10/11 news, cbs affiliate out of lincoln: highway 2 closed by bennet b/c of debris and power lines down on the road. Homes destroyed and storm spotters searching by foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Just got a report of numerous ambulances headed into Bennet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 My old friend is still being run...Given the Marine layer this looks more likely to me. The moderate outlook IMO may be dropped entirely, or localized along the Missouri River near Omaha possibly as far north as Sioux Falls. hotlink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 looks like the line of storms from OMA to BIE is starting to line out now. probably more straightline winds and hail the rest of the night in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 My old friend is still being run...Given the Marine layer this looks more likely to me. The moderate outlook IMO may be dropped entirely, or localized along the Missouri River near Omaha possibly as far north as Sioux Falls. hotlink: A marine layer? Seriously? It's likely that the threat's going to be focused in IA given the growth of convection tonight, but to assert that the mdt is going to be dropped entirely or that there is a "marine layer" is simply asinine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 My old friend is still being run...Given the Marine layer this looks more likely to me. The moderate outlook IMO may be dropped entirely, or localized along the Missouri River near Omaha possibly as far north as Sioux Falls. hotlink: So the RUC is going to be right because of the "marine layer"? I strongly doubt the moderate risk will be dropped given the agreement of higher potential from every other (more reliable) piece of guidance...maybe from MN, but not entirely. Edit: I see Tony beat me to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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