Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 at this point, just did a hand-plot of the models for comparison (with the 12z euro to come) for T+36 to T+84, and the Canadian global is the slowest of the progression eastwards at all levels with the low center coming out of southern Colorado while the NAM is the fastest with the system's progression east-northeastwards. GFS stuck in the middle. the euro yet to come. it looks like the risk area for severe is getting nailed down as from what I am seeing the models have a consensus there. but it's all a timing issue now. canadian global extends the severe threat another 12-24 hours for this region and the western great lakes (and as well as the snow threat into the dakotas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SPC is putting out a 15% hail/wind risk for tomorrow (Thursday). Any bets on if tomorrow will have 20 hail/wind reports? Is there a significant chance for a tornado tomorrow? Or will it be one of those 2% tornado days, with no tornadoes? I will go with under 20 total hail/wind tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SPC is putting out a 15% hail/wind risk for tomorrow (Thursday). Any bets on if tomorrow will have 20 hail/wind reports? Is there a significant chance for a tornado tomorrow? Or will it be one of those 2% tornado days, with no tornadoes? I will go with under 20 total hail/wind tomorrow i'd say first look, i'd say within 2-3 on either side for that 20 reports mark. as for the tornado risk, i would say 2% on the 06z d1, but the chances may be upped for the 13z and 16z updates based on the 12z analyses. the day 2 and day 3 outlooks will be wholly dependent on the 12Z analyses tomorrow, so they can judge the speed of the upper low coming out of the cascades and the central/northern US rockies and have a fully-observed disturbance inside the sensing network, making the models more unified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 the euro is now actually doing something like the canadian, with a slightly increased eastward pace. it'll be interesting to see what happens when the forward speed of this system gets unified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Is it just me, or does the position of the H5 jet at 00Z Saturday concern some that it may actually inhibit convective development along I-35, near the IA/MN border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Not sure I agree entirely on the 12z Canadian. It still has the H5 low centered at Cheyenne by 00z Sat and the surface low is in south-central NE. Also, verbatim, no warm sector QPF by that time. It's hard to imagine a cap bust Friday -- the extreme slow end of the guidance envelope would have to win out. If we're converging on something close to the 12z GFS, that may be the most ominous scenario, putting OMA-DMX in play with late afternoon initiation likely. What I meant was that the 12z Canadian (and Euro too) both sped up, perhaps correcting the fact that those models were even further west just last night, while the American suite was more to the east, into or approaching Iowa by 00z Saturday. With that said, I'm tentatively planning to make the trip out there on Friday, assuming the forecasts hold. It's going to be a long drive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The NAM continues to come in a bit farther west...With the 18z showing a 994mb SLP near YKN 21z Fri...with quick occlusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The NAM continues to come in a bit farther west...With the 18z showing a 994mb SLP near YKN 21z Fri...with quick occlusion. Looks quite impressive near the IA/MN border, slightly further NW than the previous runs. Stronger winds aloft and a low-level jet of 50+ knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The NAM continues to come in a bit farther west...With the 18z showing a 994mb SLP near YKN 21z Fri...with quick occlusion. All I can think looking at 21z soundings from this run is fast-moving SigTors NW IA/SW MN, perhaps extreme SE SD/NE NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 All I can think looking at 21z soundings from this run is fast-moving SigTors NW IA/SW MN, perhaps extreme SE SD/NE NE. Storm motion looks like it's up near 50 knots, even higher to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 All I can think looking at 21z soundings from this run is fast-moving SigTors NW IA/SW MN, perhaps extreme SE SD/NE NE. Instability is widespread 2500 to over 3000 J/kg in that region at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I don't want to be overdramatic, but I'm struggling to think of when I've seen forecast soundings this good since April 27. Right now, the ceiling certainly looks like the most impressive event for this region since 2010-06-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Here's KSHL 18z NAM at 21z Friday: http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace1.cgi?model=META&fcsthr=051&STATIONID=KSHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wow at that sounding, that might be one of the best soundings for that region that I have seen in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 I don't want to be overdramatic, but I'm struggling to think of when I've seen forecast soundings this good since April 27. Right now, the ceiling certainly looks like the most impressive event for this region since 2010-06-17. You haven't seen a sounding like that since then. The event I keep picturing is 3/29/98, the Comfrey and St. Peter >1 mi wide wedges, only the parameter space is even more impressive. The ceiling for this event is terrifying IMO, especially for an area where this kind of threat is out of season right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 If you're not familiar with the 3/29/98 event I referenced in the last post, you MUST read this page and look at the maps from that day: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=1998mar29wxpattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If you're not familiar with the 3/29/98 event I referenced in the last post, you MUST read this page and look at the maps from that day: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=1998mar29wxpattern Here's a composite loop from the Midwest that day. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=1998&month=3&day=29&hour=12&minute=50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Obviously the potential is sky high on Friday but I am strictly showing this to show the very impressive CAA after 0z Friday evening looking only at 850mb temps at KFSD off the 18z NAM. The 850mb temps drop 18 degrees in 3 hours. I can't remember ever seeing something like that. Also, here is sig tor off our COD page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If you're not familiar with the 3/29/98 event I referenced in the last post, you MUST read this page and look at the maps from that day: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=1998mar29wxpattern Comfrey F4 tornado around max intensity near Lake Hanska (huge)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If you're not familiar with the 3/29/98 event I referenced in the last post, you MUST read this page and look at the maps from that day: I'm very familiar with this day...many friends and relatives of mine lost houses and property to that long track tornado, the comfrey, Nicollet to st. Peter line has been somewhat of a mini tornado alley in the last 25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 for what it's worth- already a few high-moisture storms on the moisture axis in Nebraska. Hail reports, flash floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Slayton, MN: Windom, MN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Those are some obscene skew-t's for southern Minnesota! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That Slayton sounding is absolutely ridiculous. This setup probably holds some of the most impressive potential for this region in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That Slayton sounding is absolutely ridiculous. One thing I took note of almost immediately was the sky-high 0-3 km CAPEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 NAM thru 48hr looks slightly further north and more convective precip along warm front at IA/MN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It's def a bit further north and west, getting scattered convection in the warm sector early near 18z from KS up into southern IA and then newer storms around 21z in central IA as well as stuff close to the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Pulling some nasty looking skew-t's/wind profiles via COD's site from the 00z NAM at 21z Friday in N IA and S MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 *IMO* This tornado ingredient map from the SREF pretty much sums up the general threat zone very nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 This tornado ingredient map from the SREF pretty much sums up the general threat zone very nicely: image.jpg Lol, every time I see those posted, the first word (or more appropriately, question) that immediately enters my head afterwards is "Why?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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