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October 3-5 early autumn storm


cyclone77

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
451 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL ROMEOVILLE 41.65N 88.09W
10/03/2013 E1.00 INCH WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER

AT RENWICK AND WEBER ROAD.

Nice little line of storms forming along the IN/IL border and more to the sw.  Could be an interesting evening.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  

821 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

CENTRAL DODGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...  

 

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  

 

* AT 818 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BEAVER DAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  

WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  

QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

JUNEAU DODGE AIRPORT AND JUNEAU AROUND 855 PM CDT.  

HORICON AROUND 900 PM CDT.  

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Day 2 slight...

STORM PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION

INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED OR DISCRETE SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES. GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME

ENHANCED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR

THE WARM FRONT/TRIPLE-POINT LOW IN SRN WI/NRN IL...A THREAT FOR

TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

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In my mind I've been writing Saturday off as just a squall line for days now, but after that snippet in the Day 2 I had to go look and wow.  I mean it's hardly classic, but both the GFS and the NAM show enough turning for supercells/tornadoes along the Cheddar Curtain, at least initially.  Probably by about 20z or so it's all congealed (and that's being optimistic) but in those first few hours things could be interesting.

 

Valpo is doing Relay For Life, outside, Saturday night, and the Met department has been planning our team for months, so chasing Saturday looks pretty unlikely.  But hey, at least we'll get rolled together outside!

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From a moisture/instability/shear/forcing/overall perspective, there are things to like and not like about Saturday and I think where it leaves us is with a potentially decent threat by October standards but one that is conditional on morning activity not overwhelming the setup.

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Ontario makes it into the slight risk area for Sunday. Main threats appear to be damaging winds. Wind profiles are mostly unidirection, with a really strong upper jet in place an a solid LLJ that moves in around 00Z. Will probably chase, thinking I'll get a photogenic shelf cloud out of this.

 

dg03r.gif

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Nice storms heading towards Milwaukee. No warnings on them though.

 

Edit: Warning now for Walworth County.

 

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
WIC127-051930-
/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0083.131005T1843Z-131005T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
143 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WALWORTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 138 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FONTANA-ON-GENEVA LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE GENEVA...ELKHORN...EAST TROY...COMO...SPRING PRAIRIE...
SPRINGFIELD...TIBBETS...ABELLS CORNERS AND TROY CENTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

 

 

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Flash Flood Watch just issued for my area.

 

 

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
322 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013


INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051-052-060-061-070-077-060330-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.A.0008.131006T0600Z-131007T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-HARDIN-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
BUTLER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...
KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...
BELLEFONTAINE...PIQUA...URBANA...EATON...DAYTON...HAMILTON...
CINCINNATI
322 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
AND OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN INDIANA...
DEARBORN...FAYETTE IN...FRANKLIN IN...OHIO...RIPLEY...
SWITZERLAND...UNION IN AND WAYNE. IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
BOONE...CAMPBELL...CARROLL...GALLATIN AND KENTON. IN OHIO...
AUGLAIZE...BUTLER...CHAMPAIGN...DARKE...HAMILTON...HARDIN...
LOGAN...MERCER...MIAMI...MONTGOMERY...PREBLE AND SHELBY.

* FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARD OUR REGION. A BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
RATES IN HEAVIER BANDS COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING
THIS TIME.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL END AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS
AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE
PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
OCCUR OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

 

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ILN AFD concerning flooding and severe.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
341 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE PLUME WELL AHEAD
OF THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM TEXAS/LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWAT
VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS HELPING TO MAKE THIS PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENT. 18Z OB FROM LOUISVILLE HAD THIS AREA OF RAIN PRODUCE
1.23 INCHES IN A ONE HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF OUR ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HI-RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE FIRST PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL APPROACH OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...IT WILL BE
DRAWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED OFF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THIS MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL
OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WEST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE VERY
MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INITIALLY
ON SUNDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH TAKES
NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY TO SPIN ACROSS IOWA...AND ONGOING DEEP
MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS
KEEPS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH AVERAGE QPF FORECASTS RANGING FROM
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PWAT VALUES NEARING 230
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW/MID LEVEL JET PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AREAS THAT WOULD
RECEIVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED THE 2.5 INCH FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS
BAND MOVES THROUGH. THE RESULT COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH A THREAT FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE FLASH
FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THIS THREAT AM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD
OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG ML
CAPE AT 15Z PER THE NAM ACROSS THE WEST...0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE
30KT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS.
WITH THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW LCLS ALSO
IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO.

ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT TAKES ITS TIME TO APPROACH THOSE
ZONES. THEREFORE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
CELLS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR ACROSS THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
NOT AS STRONG AS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER A NARROW RIBBON OF AN
INTERFACE OF STRONG SHEAR IN THE WEST COULD EXIST WITH MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR...SHOULD THIS CORRIDOR OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOP. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE SEVERE THREATS FOR OUR AREA TOMORROW
IN THE HWO.

THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE AS WELL AND BEGINS TO GET ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH
TO ITS NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EXITING
OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0318 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052018Z - 052215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRENDS

WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...APPROACHING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO QUASI-LINEAR

BANDS FROM NERN IL AND NWRN INDIANA SSWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY.

WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 35-45 KT SAMPLED BY THE INDIANAPOLIS VWP

WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS

ACROSS CNTRL INDIANA...WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR

FOR THE CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DESPITE RELATIVELY

MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE PBL -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S

TO AROUND 70F -- WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STUNTING SFC

DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AND PREVENTING STRONGER

BUOYANCY FROM ENSUING. REGARDLESS...LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES

WITH MORE INTENSE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS

THE AREA...AS THIS ACTIVITY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

HOURS.

..COHEN/HART.. 10/05/2013

 

 

post-4544-0-16776400-1381005109_thumb.gi

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Heads up Chicago

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

346 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

EASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

NORTH CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 343 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROMEOVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

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That storm near Chicago is moving due north, could make a run at Kenosha and Downtown Milwaukee, won't likely maintain its strength though.

 

Yeah it's pouring here again - this time with more lightning and thunder.

 

0.40" so far.

 

Looks like night here almost.

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