TugHillMatt Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I sure hope we don't get too much wind. The fall colors are really starting to look beautiful around here. Western Michigan is just gorgeous in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 The Euro is slowing down with the storm and is also somewhat weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Northern half of WI and MN are near peak this week, so if want to see the colors in those areas you better get there before this storm hits! Just saw this to on Henry M. page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Thank goodness we finally have something to discuss regionally, if not yet nationally. Parameters continue to look interesting with this system for affected areas of the Midwest. It's been so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Friday's setup looks a bit further west with today's runs. Following the Euro the heavies places the best chances for tornadoes out near the quad-state area of NE/IA/SD/MN. Saturday looks decent for northern/central IL into southern WI, and then points east by that night. Timing tweaks will obviously continue for at least the next day or two. Personally I was hoping Friday's setup would be a bit closer to home, as I could take that day off, but there's no getting out of work Sat so I can't go too far Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Friday's setup looks a bit further west with today's runs. Following the Euro the heavies places the best chances for tornadoes out near the quad-state area of NE/IA/SD/MN. Saturday looks decent for northern/central IL into southern WI, and then points east by that night. Timing tweaks will obviously continue for at least the next day or two. Personally I was hoping Friday's setup would be a bit closer to home, as I could take that day off, but there's no getting out of work Sat so I can't go too far Fri. Kind of figured that would happen, and Saturday would be the better day around the Western Lakes for any action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Problem is that on Saturday, trough is still deep but whole system is progged to occlude and become vertically stacked, which would likely weaken the wind fields and diminish the kinematic setup. Doesn't mean there won't be severe weather anywhere in the area, just a much lower ceiling than Friday's potential farther west. Given that the energy that will spur the trough won't make landfall in the PNW until tomorrow, further timing changes are likely until the system is sampled by the RAOB network. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I'd normally buy the Euro's slower and slightly weaker solution, but it's been kind of flaky at this time-frame lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Good to see you posting again RC! Not in our subforum, but interesting nonetheless. Snow forecasted to part of this storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Extremely impressive baroclinic zone on the 00z NAM for Friday afternoon. 90 in southeast Iowa and 30s in South Dakota with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If I had the money I'd drive to the Dakota's for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Just to test the waters, here's two maps of today's (old) 12z run of the UKMET that I made: The wind field is obviously rather busy, but if I increase the IJSKIP for 0 to 1, it loses too much detail. As for QPF, I generally mocked the NCEP color scheme up to a point before splitting off. I still have to fix the title, and I can zoom in to Iowa for the next suite (I'll probably still be up). What do you guys think? If I have time, I'll set it up so that a certain set of images auto-uploads to space on Valpo's server so that you can access it there. Edit: And the title should read "12 HR PRECIP", not 6. Argh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well, hello all. I hope everyone is well. I read here all the time but don't post too often. So it looks as we have our first real storm of the fall season upon us late this week into this weekend. After tonight's 00z runs, we continue to have a large discrepancy in surface low position by 00z Saturday (Friday evening). Take a look. 00z NAM surface low pressure position centered near Mankato, MN at 00z Saturday 00z GFS surface low pressure position center near Omaha, NE at 00z Saturday From my experience, I personally would side more with the GFS as it and the EURO are similar in surface low pressure track and position. The NAM tends to be inaccurate until less than 48 hours out from the event. Tomorrow night's 00z runs should help to better paint the severe weather picture as the system begins to be sampled as it comes onshore. Nonetheless, this early fall system has tornado potential with it. Let's take a look. Both the NAM and GFS show a large swath of 65+ dew point air with surface winds backed southeasterly along the northward surging warm front. NAM: GFS: Both models also show southwesterly winds in the lower levels approaching or exceeding 40 kts NAM: GFS: This gives us some very nice looking profiles from both models, just in different locations due to storm track NAM: Eau Claire, WI at 00z GFS: Near Marshalltown, IA at 00z With lapse rates looking steep, possibly near 8.0 C/KM the cold pocket aloft should provide moderate to strong instability upwards of 2,000 surface based CAPE. Despite location differences in the models and some mesoscale details to work out such as morning convection, I think it's safe to say that Friday holds a fairly significant severe weather potential including the potential for some tornadoes and looks to be our first severe weather action this fall. ~Connor~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 SPC continues strong wording for the potential of very large hail and at least a few tornadoes. Day 3 outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well. You don't see this everyday. Holy ****! EDIT: Sioux City Iowa goes from 86 here at 4pm to 38 by 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well. You don't see this everyday. Holy ****! I wonder where the low is. lol I do like the 57 to 86 within probably a county and a half, and of course the 60+ degree range across the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Well. You don't see this everyday. Holy ****! EDIT: Sioux City Iowa goes from 86 here at 4pm to 38 by 1am. Would be an interesting drive from DSM to Pierre, SD! Start off with shorts and end your trip with a winter coat on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Don't ask me why I have a love affair with the UKMET...because I don't know. Anyway... Per today's 12z run, central and southern Iowa looking pretty good. It's a shame I can't plot CAPE or Helicity here like I can with the American models. Edit: Oh yes, and once again that should be 12 HR PRECIP in the title, not 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Well The Weather Network has officially named this Winter Storm Atlas, so it must be legit... I find it funny that they are naming a 'winter storm' in early October... does any low that produces snowfall get a name now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 0z GFS precip in the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Well The Weather Network has officially named this Winter Storm Atlas, so it must be legit... I find it funny that they are naming a 'winter storm' in early October... does any low that produces snowfall get a name now? i'll ask my colleagues who still work up there at TWN about their policy about that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat on Saturday. Obviously Friday still looks to be the bigger day by all indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Warm frontal position is going to struggle to move northwards with this marine layer and now thunderstorms moving in. NAM tries to have it at 81° at 2pm here. This kind of rain will knock back the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I'm not sure what kind of rain we'll get out of this. There are scattered showers and storms around the area now, but all missing us. The Euro barely has anything falling until Saturday, and then only about 1/3 inch. The fropa timing doesn't look good for us either, severewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Doesn't look like much of an event for southern Ontario unfortunately. Hoping it delivers for some of you, especially those suffering drought conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hang in there Hawkeye, the RAP says you've got a lot more rain coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Doesn't look like much of an event for southern Ontario unfortunately. Hoping it delivers for some of you, especially those suffering drought conditions Agreed, models have really backed off since Tuesday. What were some pretty good wind profiles look to be further west now, and we are now stuck with an unfavourable veer-back-veer pattern which won't be very conducive to strong storms on Saturday. Might still get some decent thunder out of it all. Oh well, thought it was too good to be true for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 RAP looking more believable than the NAM, these warm fronts always struggle to get as far north as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Feels like August out there. 69/67 currently. Managed a couple of hundredths of rain. 2 day severe outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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