cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Hasn't been too much to talk about for quite some time around the sub. Looks like we have a pretty interesting storm on the way for later this week. Most of the models have agreed potent storm system should wrap up over the MW by Friday, with even some snow potential in parts of Minnesota. On the front side it looks like a pretty decent shot for severe, including the potential for tornadoes could occur on Friday afternoon... This from SPC this morning... THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON FRI/D5 NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SRN MN...IA...WI...AND NRN IL...WITH A LESSER THREAT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS FAR SW AS OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST VEERING WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COEXIST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. IN THIS SCENARIO...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A SQUALL LINE AS THE STRONGEST FORCING SURGES EWD. FOR SRN AREAS...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE AS STEEP...AND FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGLY LINEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yay our first fall storm to track. Everyone fired up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 12z GFS says chase in IA on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Looks pretty awesome! I expect it to track near DLL and into the U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I like the potential locally for Saturday, Friday does look like it has the higher ceiling currently but Saturday could be a decent day especially now that the GFS has slowed up about 6-10 hours with a later frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I almost forgot what a good severe weather setup looks like but this one seems to have many of the ingredients. Certainly something worthy of tracking in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 12z GFS looks pretty good with the front timing, after 1pm for IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 12z GFS says chase in IA on Friday. Yes it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yes it does... So does the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 EURO really dumping in the cold air into western Lakes. Snow for far northwestern portions of our subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Someone will get snow out of it, but most likely somewhere near Winnipeg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Someone will get snow out of it, but most likely somewhere near Winnipeg. Wouldn't be surprised if places like Kenora or International Falls picked up several inches of wet snow, especially if the defo band comes in at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 International Falls, Minnesota Earliest Measurable Snow: Sept. 14, 1964 Looks like they are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 International Falls, Minnesota Earliest Measurable Snow: Sept. 14, 1964 Looks like they are due. Ironically the crappy winter of 06-07 was the earliest snow on record here in SE Michigan, Oct 12th 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 18z GFS showing a big blow up of storms Friday night with the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 GFS still looking decent for severe this weekend. Iowa's looking like a potential late season chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Looks like the drought area around DLL will get a good soaking. 1-1.5" for N IL, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 ..FRIDAY D4: NEB...IA...MN...WIMODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ASEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON FRI/D4 ANYWHERE FROM FAR ERN NEB INTOIA...SRN MN...AND SWRN WI.THE WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ONFRIDAY/D4...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB/IABORDER FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT.BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 65-68 F WILL ALREADY BE INPLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...E OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONTTRAILING S FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND S OF A WARM/STATIONARY FRONTWHICH WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI.DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATESWILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP AMOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILLFAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...ANDVERY LARGE HAIL. A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULDLEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCHAS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 looks good for the QC crew on west although I'd suspect any future timing changes will be towards a slower evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 looks good for the QC crew on west although I'd suspect any future timing changes will be towards a slower evolution. The trends do keep slowing things down. If this holds off until Saturday for the best day, there's an increasing possibility that I'll head out there. I'll need a full day for travel (Friday would be ideal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Snow? IN THE WRAP AROUND FLOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUESTO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE GFS AND GEM. I KEPT THE FORECASTRAIN BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE GFS AND GEM FOR ANY SHIFTSTOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND IF THIS HAPPENS...PERHAPS ADD SNOWTO THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING WIDESPREADRAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLYSUNDAY. That is from La Crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Snow? That is from La Crosse Fantasy, the models have been trending warmer, not colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I'm really liking the looks of things from Iowa into southern Wisconsin, but we still have many more model runs to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 12z NAM with good severe on Friday in IA/IL/MN/WI and snow in ND. And does anyone know why instantweathermaps.com isn't loading images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 12z NAM with good severe on Friday in IA/IL/MN/WI and snow in ND. And does anyone know why instantweathermaps.com isn't loading images? Now there and into Southern MB would be where any snow would fall with this one, even then the temps look marginal at best until you get into Canada. I noticed that instant was down a few days ago, don't know what is up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Anyone who remembers looking at the projections and the reality of the 2010 Octobomb, how does this severe threat compare? I believe the primary threat for that one was in the Eastern Great Lakes (Michigan, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio), but there was an early morning Tornado Warning for a storm in Racine County that I believe was confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Anyone who remembers looking at the projections and the reality of the 2010 Octobomb, how does this severe threat compare? I believe the primary threat for that one was in the Eastern Great Lakes (Michigan, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio), but there was an early morning Tornado Warning for a storm in Racine County that I believe was confirmed. This one is not nearly as intense with the surface low and winds aloft are weaker. But what this one lacks in shear (compared to Octobomb) it makes up for in instability as progs look pretty good in that regard. Octobomb was very unusual in that the tornado outbreak really got going during the early morning hours of the 26th, which is pretty hard to do in this region of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 This one is not nearly as intense with the surface low and winds aloft are weaker. But what this one lacks in shear (compared to Octobomb) it makes up for in instability as progs look pretty good in that regard. Octobomb was very unusual in that the tornado outbreak really got going during the early morning hours of the 26th, which is pretty hard to do in this region of the country. Yeah, it is tough to draw distinct comparisons of the two. The problem is most of the major October outbreaks occurred with systems that were sub 990mb lows, this one is only forecast to get down to 995mb roughly. However this is earlier in the month than those events and this time around we are looking at widespread dewpoints in the mid 60s for the region with temps in some places in the low to mid 80s. I would probably compare this more to a strong spring time system than a fall one. I will note though, last night's CIPS analog for 120hrs. the top analog was the 10/18/07 event which was a pretty significant event here in MI and for the Ohio Valley. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Snow? That is from La Crosse I think if it does snow, it will come in the form of graupel snow. The cold, unstable air mass will probably set off rain and snow showers across the region - if it's cold enough. I believe it happened last October around here one day. Edit: Looks like a soaker for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Wahoo something to track, and a chance at severe around these parts taboot. Been able to pull some pretty nice soundings off the GFS, turning looks great for some warm front action on Saturday in ON. Also liking the progged 65 dewpoints We'll see how the models progress throughout the week of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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