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October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

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Epic model fail occurring from 00z last night. Euro epic fail for NYC and Hudson Valley. GFS for ern and SE mass it appears. Euro was most egregious. Really bad. NAM did not have a clue until 18z today.

this might be the worst euro bust I've seen
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Totally sunny day lol..Some forecasts had rain all day today 24 hours ago

I don't know what we were thinking tossing the NAM for the ECM ;)

How are your temps looking today and tomorrow?

Looks like even the NAM was too cold...and if we were expecting a crisp fall feel, gotta wait till next week. Already in the 60s in a lot of areas at 10:30am.

This Afternoon: Partly sunny. Highs around 70. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

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For a model where we expect so much out of, that run belongs on the wall of shame.

imagine a bust on a MECS or HECS like that around here...the denial would be interesting, then the turn to anger and eventually acceptance of partly cloudy skies with BWI AND DCA getting the goods instead

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I don't know what we were thinking tossing the NAM for the ECM ;)

How are your temps looking today and tomorrow?

Looks like even the NAM was too cold...and if we were expecting a crisp fall feel, gotta wait till next week. Already in the 60s in a lot of areas at 10:30am.

This Afternoon: Partly sunny. Highs around 70. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Pure BS. You and I were basing it on being a rainy day. You thought it would be 65 and rainy lol
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Pure BS. You and I were basing it on being a rainy day. You thought it would be 65 and rainy lol

 

Haha did I?  I don't remember saying that.   It was a temp discussion, its not in the upper 40s, its in the mid 60s.  You don't think you'd be slamming AWT all over if it was 49F right now?

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LL took some to the woodshed here. Wow

 

Essentially the ECM got taken to the woodshed.  Those dry NAM runs with temps tickling 70F from HFD-CEF today seem spot on.

 

But even down in the areas where heavy rain is taking place, temps are upper 50s to low 60s.  It just isn't that cold of an airmass around here...especially when its 50F at 6,000ft on MWN.

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why do you do what he tells you on the other board here? Are you his puppet? He thought it would be raining today as everyone else did. He got nothing right

 

Except the temperatures ;)

 

So it may be right for the wrong reason, but I'm sure no one on here has ever claimed victory for a forecast that turned out to be correct even if for the wrong reason.  Although I don't remember anyone posting rainfall forecasts, just temperatures.

 

But anyway, there were two scenarios for today... heavy rain and chilly, or little if any rain and seasonably mild.  I still think with heavy rain you wouldn't be as cold as was being alluded too.  Dews are in the low to mid 50s right now in SNE, and if we saturated, the wet bulbs are upper 50s to near 60F (similar temps as what they are seeing in the heavy rain in PA).  So even if you were pouring right now its probably 57F or 58F instead of 65-70F right now.

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