dendrite Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Still noone except Scooty with a clue about the rain today thru Saturday. Local stations in CT range from totally dry to soaking rain this afternoon thru Friday with showers lingering into SatWait...you want it dry but in the 40s for a fall feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Man close call Friday. I wonder how much even gets to nrn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Man close call Friday. I wonder how much even gets to nrn CT. NAM has 3.5 here, but nothing in the far NE corner of CT. Brick wall somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM has 3.5 here, but nothing in the far NE corner of CT. Brick wall somewhere Do not trust NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Do not trust NAM. Euro and Canadian have similar numbers. Euro and Canadian have had it all along, NAM finally came aboard last night at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 NAM has 3.5 here, but nothing in the far NE corner of CT. Brick wall somewhere Euro is just about the same though, EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Wait...you want it dry but in the 40s for a fall feel? Like a late November feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 October is a winter month after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 seasons as seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro and Canadian have similar numbers. Euro and Canadian have had it all along, NAM finally came aboard last night at 0z For SW CT sure, that spot looks to receive the most imo but once you move N & W of there #'s will drop off rapidly. Don't know about the 3"+ #'s either in SW CT, still think most of that stays S and offshore. 1-2" for Fairfield Cnty, my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 If this were winter, Will and I would launch ourselves off the steepest part of Wachusett mtn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If this were winter, Will and I would launch ourselves off the steepest part of Wachusett mtn. I'd go hang-gliding off the summit and then detach the harness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If you believe the 06Z GFS for 10/25-10/26, it's going to be winter over the East. I just am amazed that the natural gas marked rocketed bc of this crap. EDIT: I think the pattern favors cold over the East...but I'd be shocked if it were this extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If this were winter, Will and I would launch ourselves off the steepest part of Wachusett mtn. I'd go hang-gliding off the summit and then detach the harness Noted for later purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Rev maybe the cold could arrive in time to meet a phasing 98L near the benchmark. Hey its just banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If you believe the 06Z GFS for 10/25-10/26, it's going to be winter over the East. I just am amazed that the natural gas marked rocketed bc of this crap. EDIT: I think the pattern favors cold over the East...but I'd be shocked if it were this extreme. Euro ensembles were pretty impressive with the pattern for late this month with a big -EPO/+PNA oriented ridge (usually the most favorable type for cold). But yeah, its hard to predict most of the east being under 0C at 850 this far. It could easily be just a typical cool shot...esp since we are still early enough that the shorter wavelengths can do some weird stuff to muck up a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Euro ensembles were pretty impressive with the pattern for late this month with a big -EPO/+PNA oriented ridge (usually the most favorable type for cold). But yeah, its hard to predict most of the east being under 0C at 850 this far. It could easily be just a typical cool shot...esp since we are still early enough that the shorter wavelengths can do some weird stuff to muck up a pattern. How long do you see this pattern lasting? Does November look cold in the East based on what you're seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 How long do you see this pattern lasting? Does November look cold in the East based on what you're seeing? There's a good chance that November will start cold. Beyond that is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 How long do you see this pattern lasting? Does November look cold in the East based on what you're seeing? Wouldn't be surprised if November starts off chilly, but it's pretty much impossible to predict how long this regime will last for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Just beat me to it Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 If you believe the 06Z GFS for 10/25-10/26, it's going to be winter over the East. I just am amazed that the natural gas marked rocketed bc of this crap. EDIT: I think the pattern favors cold over the East...but I'd be shocked if it were this extreme. Hey the NG guys will jump on anything, myself I am locking this in, buying snow shovel futures as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 There's a good chance that November will start cold. Beyond that is anyone's guess. Weeklies should be interesting when they come out later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Weeklies on Monday were cold for late Oct and cold/coolish for first week of November....week 4 has low skill though so the latter has lower confidence. I usually likes to look at weeks 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 I'd go hang-gliding off the summit and then detach the harness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 2003-04 was really the last brutally cold winter, I definitely agree. I was a sophomore in high school at the time, and was living in Dobbs Ferry...we had three major clippers in that brutally cold January and one dropped nearly 8". I remember several nights approaching 0F in the suburbs with Central Park hovering in the upper single digits. December and January were absolutely epic, winter took a break in February, and then March came roaring back with two storms around the equinox, each of which dropped 6-7" in Dobbs Ferry. We finished around 55" for the winter, which was slightly less than 02-03 though the cold was more memorable. However, people often forget that January 2003 had a stiff arctic outbreak; it's dwarfed by memories of the XMAS surprise which dropped a foot at my place and then of course PDII, but that was a time when we were huddled outside the high school awaiting rides from parents because it was simply too cold to walk the mile home... Can someone post the dailies for Central Park from January 2003 and January 2004 to compare? There have been cold spells since then, of course, but nothing approaching the extreme level of Jan 2004. I think January 2005 does stand out for me as it froze the Hudson River almost completely in Westchester, which is rare. The problem with 2005 is that the cold wasn't sustained like in 02-03 or 03-04, as other parts of the winter torched. December 2004 stands out as a very bland month, but the January outbreak did produce this scene of the Hudson with the sun setting...ah, deep winter: dobbs2005cold.jpg Boston Common had 6" on May 10, 1977 so they've actually seen more than what you mentioned in May. 02-03 was a more impressive winter over all front to back, with Jan 03 being arctic cold, feb still being that way with the big snows obviously too. Jan 04 is without question the coldest month/stretch of weather in the Northeast for the 2000s though. I think Feb 07 is second on that list, followed by Jan 03/09/05, and then maybe Dec 2000 and Jan 2010? I think we had about 1.5-2" from that and the snow was falling at like 2F. I think there were a few jackpots down in NJ that were around 9-10" with not even 0.3" of qpf. Yeah that was memorable down here where I had 7 or 8" in the low-mid teens the night of the 14th to morning 15th... followed by a windy night that reach 0-1F for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Probably one of the very few winters where I was envious of NJ snow. Of course I also was 6 yrs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Interesting difference between the GFS and Euro., The GFS has a bloc of heavy rain over SE MA thanks to a band of higher 850mb theta-e air moving NW. So this in turn is creating stronger isentropic lift down there. No other model is doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 radar looks awful down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Think the euro is going to bust down here. Hard to believe. Radar is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Think the euro is going to bust down here. Hard to believe. Radar is awful didn't know the event was over. Relax. Save the bust calls for Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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