snowman21 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 he even trolls by text. Only way that happens is if the storm misses way south. I'd say 40's one day are a shot even down here...48/49 type stuff That would be pretty early for BDR though not unprecedented. The earliest sub-50 high temp was 10/8/1988 with a high of 45, and 0.47 inches of rain. Second earliest is 10/10/1979 with a high of 44, 0.45 of liquid equivalent, and a trace of snowfall. In third place is 10/11/1951 with a high of 49. After that there are two occurrences on 10/15, one on 10/17 and 10/18, and two on 10/19. In the course of researching this, I discovered BDR's earliest snowfall which looks like 0.5 inches on 10/4/1987 with a high of 51 - surprised the earliest measureable was that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Should be interesting to watch....the forecast up here in the mountains is for 65-70F all weekend without a cloud in the sky. The high isn't that cold, lol. I wonder if you guys at 20F colder if you're expecting 40s for highs. Friday Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds. Friday Night Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. Saturday Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. You're too far west..Look farther east closer to high..and low dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Joe texted me and thinks it'll be 65 all weekend shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 That would be pretty early for BDR though not unprecedented. The earliest sub-50 high temp was 10/8/1988 with a high of 45, and 0.47 inches of rain. Second earliest is 10/10/1979 with a high of 44, 0.45 of liquid equivalent, and a trace of snowfall. In third place is 10/11/1951 with a high of 49. After that there are two occurrences on 10/15, one on 10/17 and 10/18, and two on 10/19. In the course of researching this, I discovered BDR's earliest snowfall which looks like 0.5 inch on 10/4/1987 with a high of 51 - surprised the earliest measureable was that early. That storm set a lot of records...even closed the Mass Pike through the Berkshires and the NY State Thruway from ALB south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 You're too far west..Look farther east closer to high..and low dews It certainly is dry...I've got 65/29 right now (dew has been as low as 28F today) with 20-30% RH. This may actually be the first dews in the 20s for me this season today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 56/42 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro ensembles are definitely trending colder..esp near and after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It certainly is dry...I've got 65/29 right now (dew has been as low as 28F today) with 20-30% RH. This may actually be the first dews in the 20s for me this season today. Yeah you guys are torching up there away from NE winds. High was only 58.6 here today and it's now 56.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 That storm set a lot of records...even closed the Mass Pike through the Berkshires and the NY State Thruway from ALB south. That would have been a toaster bath for MPM and MRG...the west slope of Berks got destroyed while east of the crest the snow diminished rapidly to basically nothing once east of Worthington. Really sharp cutoff. Mitch's area got destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 18z nam is much wetter especially for Coastal CT/RI 2-m temps aren't even close though to what you guys are talking about...maybe far coastal areas of CT. Friday highs are 65-70 (even 70+ near BDL-CEF) on the NAM, which should excel in these situations)... And Saturday is like 66-74F in CT...we'll have to see how that compares with cloudy and upper 40s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Gradient like, Pretty chilly look over NNE on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 2m temps are much colder for Fri afternoon...u40s 18Z in MPM land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The reason the nam is warmer is b/c it keeps most of the rain south....euro is wet all the way through Sunday AM and has much colder temps...bring in a stratiform rain in this setup and it's going to be chilly. I'll take the Euro output over the NAM anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 2m temps are much colder for Fri afternoon...u40s 18Z in MPM land.Yeah not sure why freak is posting Nam nonsense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 2m temps are much colder for Fri afternoon...u40s 18Z in MPM land.Would love thatI think it gets muted with the next run but maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yeah not sure why freak is posting Nam nonsense lolIt has 60s for you on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The reason the nam is warmer is b/c it keeps most of the rain south....euro is wet all the way through Sunday AM and has much colder temps...bring in a stratiform rain in this setup and it's going to be chilly. I'll take the Euro output over the NAM anydayThe euro has decent rains all the way up to S VT/NH. Ens mean is a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It has 60s for you on Sat.we're talking Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Euro 2m temps are much colder for Fri afternoon...u40s 18Z in MPM land. Wow that's quite a difference... Yeah not sure why freak is posting Nam nonsense lol How many times this summer and earlier this fall have you posted that the EURO has lost its touch and we should be worried about its performance? Its just another piece of guidance, but I forgot that we are now in the cold season so its time to ride whatever the colder model is. My apologies, It has 60s for you on Sat. I could see Friday going colder than the American model suite, but Saturday looks decent for most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Would love 48 and cloudy Saturday. Deep fall feel It has 60s for you on Sat. we're talking Fri Sorry about the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Sorry about the confusion.Lol...beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Sunny and low 60's here as the precip looks to stay pretty much south of herewelcome to winter 13_14 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 welcome to winter 13_14 lol Haha you love to taunt with that stuff... though there seems to be some satisfaction to getting more snow than locations north of you. Similar to why some in the mid-Atlantic talk about 09-10 in a friendly rivalry way...it made it even better that New England was relatively screwed. If you get beat to the north, you are like, ah well that's climo. But to beat the north (either in amounts or relative to normal), you get a more satisfying feel to a given winter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The November 1995 snow was after T-day...specifically 11/29/95....we had an event before that around 11/13 but it was wiped out by the Hudson Valley cutter on Nov 14-15, 1995. We then waited 2 weeks for that 11/29 snow event which covered the ground for good until late that winter (or for those spots that saw grass in the late Jan '96 torch) Yeah I'm not sure why but my memory keeps wanting to bump that up in time for that November. Maybe not all the snow from the 11/13 deal was wiped in the Merr. Valley or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Sorry about the confusion. FTL Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN5m Technical: ...at both 48 and 72 hours,GFS/ECMWF are leaving NAM in the dust for NE US precip forecasts. So...beware my RPM & NAM loving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 FTL Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN5m Technical: ...at both 48 and 72 hours,GFS/ECMWF are leaving NAM in the dust for NE US precip forecasts. So...beware my RPM & NAM loving... Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim. If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim. If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat? Yes and that's not extreme if it's raining and or cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim. If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat? Go big or go home, clearly it's better to pick one extreme or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yes and that's not extreme if it's raining and or cloudy I think you'd have to be raining steadily to stay in the 40s on Friday. I think even with just clouds you'll get into the 50s. But again we are talking highs, not saying you wouldn't be in the 40s for some portion of the day. Meh weather is boring and we are down to hashing out high temps again, lol. And either way, we are both lower than the BOX forecast for your area... Friday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Saturday And Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Go big or go home, clearly it's better to pick one extreme or the other.Ive noticed you've taken to trolling me perpetually. I wonder if you'll do it all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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