Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

he even trolls by text.   Only way that happens is if the storm misses way south.  I'd say 40's one day are a shot even down here...48/49  type stuff

That would be pretty early for BDR though not unprecedented. The earliest sub-50 high temp was 10/8/1988 with a high of 45, and 0.47 inches of rain. Second earliest is 10/10/1979 with a high of 44, 0.45 of liquid equivalent, and a trace of snowfall. In third place is 10/11/1951 with a high of 49. After that there are two occurrences on 10/15, one on 10/17 and 10/18, and two on 10/19. In the course of researching this, I discovered BDR's earliest snowfall which looks like 0.5 inches on 10/4/1987 with a high of 51 - surprised the earliest measureable was that early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Should be interesting to watch....the forecast up here in the mountains is for 65-70F all weekend without a cloud in the sky. The high isn't that cold, lol. I wonder if you guys at 20F colder if you're expecting 40s for highs.

Friday

Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds.

Friday Night

Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds.

Saturday

Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

You're too far west..Look farther east closer to high..and low dews

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That would be pretty early for BDR though not unprecedented. The earliest sub-50 high temp was 10/8/1988 with a high of 45, and 0.47 inches of rain. Second earliest is 10/10/1979 with a high of 44, 0.45 of liquid equivalent, and a trace of snowfall. In third place is 10/11/1951 with a high of 49. After that there are two occurrences on 10/15, one on 10/17 and 10/18, and two on 10/19. In the course of researching this, I discovered BDR's earliest snowfall which looks like 0.5 inch on 10/4/1987 with a high of 51 - surprised the earliest measureable was that early.

That storm set a lot of records...even closed the Mass Pike through the Berkshires and the NY State Thruway from ALB south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That storm set a lot of records...even closed the Mass Pike through the Berkshires and the NY State Thruway from ALB south.

 

 

That would have been a toaster bath for MPM and MRG...the west slope of Berks got destroyed while east of the crest the snow diminished rapidly to basically nothing once east of Worthington. Really sharp cutoff. Mitch's area got destroyed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z nam is much wetter especially for Coastal CT/RI

2-m temps aren't even close though to what you guys are talking about...maybe far coastal areas of CT.

Friday highs are 65-70 (even 70+ near BDL-CEF) on the NAM, which should excel in these situations)...

And Saturday is like 66-74F in CT...we'll have to see how that compares with cloudy and upper 40s...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The reason the nam is warmer is b/c it keeps most of the rain south....euro is wet all the way through Sunday AM and has much colder temps...bring in a stratiform rain in this setup and it's going to be chilly.  I'll take the Euro output over the NAM anyday

The euro has decent rains all the way up to S VT/NH. Ens mean is a little more south.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro 2m temps are much colder for Fri afternoon...u40s 18Z in MPM land.

 

Wow that's quite a difference...

 

 

Yeah not sure why freak is posting Nam nonsense lol

 

How many times this summer and earlier this fall have you posted that the EURO has lost its touch and we should be worried about its performance?  Its just another piece of guidance, but I forgot that we are now in the cold season so its time to ride whatever the colder model is.  My apologies, :lol:

 

It has 60s for you on Sat.

 

I could see Friday going colder than the American model suite, but Saturday looks decent for most spots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

welcome to winter 13_14 lol

 

Haha you love to taunt with that stuff... though there seems to be some satisfaction to getting more snow than locations north of you.  Similar to why some in the mid-Atlantic talk about 09-10 in a friendly rivalry way...it made it even better that New England was relatively screwed. 

 

If you get beat to the north, you are like, ah well that's climo.  But to beat the north (either in amounts or relative to normal), you get a more satisfying feel to a given winter, haha. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The November 1995 snow was after T-day...specifically 11/29/95....we had an event before that around 11/13 but it was wiped out by the Hudson Valley cutter on Nov 14-15, 1995. We then waited 2 weeks for that 11/29 snow event which covered the ground for good until late that winter (or for those spots that saw grass in the late Jan '96 torch)

 

Yeah I'm not sure why but my memory keeps wanting to bump that up in time for that November.  Maybe not all the snow from the 11/13 deal was wiped in the Merr. Valley or something.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FTL

Matt Noyes@MattNoyesNECN5m

Technical: ...at both 48 and 72 hours,GFS/ECMWF are leaving NAM in the dust for NE US precip forecasts. So...beware my RPM & NAM loving...

Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim.

If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim.

If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat?

Yes and that's not extreme if it's raining and or cloudy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha...for the record I have no idea which one will be right but was just posting what it had verbatim.

If I was forecasting, I'd go compromise but I'm usually middle of the road conservative when it comes to weather (highs in the 50s for Friday and 60s on Saturday in CT)...you tend to try to keep it interesting with the extremes, and since it's cold season, so you're probably thinking 40s on Friday and 50s on Sat?

 

Go big or go home, clearly it's better to pick one extreme or the other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes and that's not extreme if it's raining and or cloudy

 

I think you'd have to be raining steadily to stay in the 40s on Friday.  I think even with just clouds you'll get into the 50s.  But again we are talking highs, not saying you wouldn't be in the 40s for some portion of the day. 

 

Meh weather is boring and we are down to hashing out high temps again, lol.

 

And either way, we are both lower than the BOX forecast for your area...

 

Friday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday And Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the upper 40s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...