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October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

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I think we do get some moisture up into the southern zones on Friday but it does not look like a washout by any means.  Saturday/Sunday look like one of those drizzly type days with onshore flow but it's weak.

 

At first dry air gets entrained in, but you may be right and eventual maritime moisture makes its way in, especially south. It's close. 

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Wow. Wait til you guys get a look at the Sri Lankan ensembles.

They often suffer of convective feedback but they do have their strengths, their tsunami outlook coupled with the DP on mount Washington is a great combination to predict winter temperatures in Denver.
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Wow. Wait til you guys get a look at the Sri Lankan ensembles.

 

go on...... 

 

 

on a more serious note, if you check the recent op euro forecasts vs. the verifications it seems there is a tendency to amplify the jet more in the progs, whereas the analyses end up more cutoff, at least in the Atlantic and to a lesser extent on the continent.  It hasn't been the case as much off the west coast, in fact the opposite even. 

 

If the trough that will form out there next week cuts off and the jet snaps back north that would be a very good sign for cold weather later in the month.  If we do end up amplified I think the pattern change could be delayed some. 

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GGEM ensembles are really cold in the long range...they would almost certainly have a pattern that would threaten the first flakes for some in the Oct 20-25 period...however, they are colder than both the GEFS and EC ensembles. They all agree on cooling us down, but the magnitude differs.

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The first recurve did the trick changing up what modeling had this week, last week. Looks like Danas finishes the changes. Couple of warm days then it's back to at or below normal. Guess its time to light the pilots on the heat. Going to hold out as long as possible. No kids to worry about.

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Hows this weekend looking for SNE?

 

I've heard everthing from rain and cloudy weather to sunshine for Saturday-Monday.

depends...the further Northeast you are the better.  Friday looks like the wettest day for most.   12z GFS has .50-1.00 of rain with the most being down this way

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We're really only 22 days away from fair game.    We've had some fluky October flakes and one bomb with increased frequency over the last 5 years, but that aside, for me it is just about November 1 through April 15 for us here, with obviously dimmed potential at either end of that date range.  

 

I hate April ... different discussion.  March snows are futile to me, but since some of the biggest historic bombs have occurred in that month, you have to give a special shout out there.   I have also seen some impressive Novembers enough to include the pre Turkey day period after Halloween. 

 

I think this particular November has a chance to over-perform looking at the balance of long range teleconnector tendencies, combined with timing the global circulation appeal

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my buddy and I saw aurora last night... It wasn't as vivid as this to the unaided eye, but it you could still make it out faintly.  This was a camera shot with open exposure: 

 

attachicon.gifaurora.jpg

 

Very cool!  Lots of folks up this way saw it as well. I'm seeing lots of pics on social media today regarding the aurora overnight.

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We're really only 22 days away from fair game.    We've had some fluky October flakes and one bomb with increased frequency over the last 5 years, but that aside, for me it is just about November 1 through April 15 for us here, with obviously dimmed potential at either end of that date range.  

 

I hate April ... different discussion.  March snows are futile to me, but since some of the biggest historic bombs have occurred in that month, you have to give a special shout out there.   I have also seen some impressive Novembers enough to include the pre Turkey day period after Halloween. 

 

I think this particular November has a chance to over-perform looking at the balance of long range teleconnector tendencies, combined with timing the global circulation appeal

 

The great thing about November is that average snowfall is so low, all it takes is one event to over-perform, ha ha.

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