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October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

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Weeklies have real low height anomalies week 4 over AK. They do have a SW -NAO so it tries to help, but still seems mild. The rest of the CONUS is rather cool except for the extreme west.

 

The pattern configuration really isn't all that favorable to allow for colder anomalies or the coolest anomalies to slide into our region.  It may not be overly mild but it should still be at least seasonably mild.  

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The pattern configuration really isn't all that favorable to allow for colder anomalies or the coolest anomalies to slide into our region.  It may not be overly mild but it should still be at least seasonably mild.  

 

Well week 4 is not always accurate either, just stating what it shows. I do think we may cool off after mid month, but it may be more of a  muted chill since the true PV may be over on the other side of the pole.

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Euro ensembles still trying to hint a bit colder toward and after mid-month, but its still not overly convincing on the idea.Def would still hedge closer to normal for that period or even a bit above while its colder in the N plains.

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Euro ensembles still trying to hint a bit colder toward and after mid-month, but its still not overly convincing on the idea.Def would still hedge closer to normal for that period or even a bit above while its colder in the N plains.

 

Back to having big differences in the GEFS vs EC ensembles again. Look at the differences in AK.  Quick glance at the MJO and you can see why the GEFS is doing what it's doing.

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Interesting on the NCEP page...

"Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown."

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Interesting on the NCEP page...

"Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown."

 

But some places like MDL and Boulder will not have full staff. So the HRRR, RAP, ECMWF MOS, etc may not run properly or at all.

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