Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I wonder if it's a comcast issue? It's all devices so I can't entirely blame ios7. go 10.0.0.1 in your browser. Pw is password user is admin you can check you comcast connection that way if you have a newer gateway

Thank you! Nice to be able to check all the sites my daughter is visiting without surreptitiously looking while she's away from device...lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't foliage look better against a bright blue fall-like sky?

This pic would have been nicer I think with a blue sky background...

foliage.JPG

Bright light washes out the color...especially for photos. The better times to bring out the saturation of color in the leaves is in lower light (cloudy days) plus early morning and late afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Foliage is dropping fast...we are losing like a few hundred feet of elevation's worth of foliage every couple days now.

I'm standing at 850ft in the valley, looking up to a molehill foothill of the Spine. The top of the hill is 2,200ft and you can see the foliage line is almost down to 1500ft. Above 1500-1700ft it is essentially November/stick season, while we are enjoying the last of the leaves down at 700-1500ft elevations.

Those leaves should come down in the 1" of rain forecast Monday night with FROPA. Then it's stick season at all elevations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Foliage is dropping fast...we are losing like a few hundred feet of elevation's worth of foliage every couple days now.

I'm standing at 850ft in the valley, looking up to a molehill foothill of the Spine. The top of the hill is 2,200ft and you can see the foliage line is almost down to 1500ft. Above 1500-1700ft it is essentially November/stick season, while we are enjoying the last of the leaves down at 700-1500ft elevations.

Those leaves should come down in the 1" of rain forecast Monday night with FROPA. Then it's stick season at all elevations.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

I'd be more worried about that wind field tomorrow afternoon and evening. Everyone's going to lose a lot of leaves late tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I didn't look this morning at anything but I highly doubt a fropa this afternoon based on how things looked last night at 11.

 

If it is warm-f in discussion there was no hope of that during today.  None.  

 

+PP remains(ed) N of New England with wedge in place, and mid level flow paralleling the front = zippo chance for warm frontal passage.  Topographical and climate arguments not even included... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it is warm-f in discussion there was no hope of that during today.  None.  

 

+PP remains(ed) N of New England with wedge in place, and mid level flow paralleling the front = zippo chance for warm frontal passage.  Topographical and climate arguments not even included... 

 

Yeah - there was only one person calling for bermuda blues and a warm, dry afternoon. 

 

Tomorrow may be a bit fun - let's hope for some action because it has been so boring lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The middle range is interesting to me...

 

There is a nice ridge with perhaps +1.5 type SD departures slowly progressing through the East.   Looking at that alone might incline one to think an utter blowtorch warm spell would flood in after brief CAA event in the late short range.

 

But...some weak stranded mid level energy in the vicinity of the Bahamas or thereabouts creates a kind of low-pressure block in the lower troposphere, such that,

 

1) there could be some kind of hybrid spin up perhaps.  Some of the models, including the zealous CMC have really been hammering that possibility in recent days/cycles, and that includes the more conservative Euro. Who knows what will come of that ... but...

 

2) the block is not allowing the high pressure passing seaward from New England to get underneath our latitude enough to really promote a SW conveyor of continental warmth.  

 

It may keep things cooler relative to the appeal of the 500mb height orientation for one.  But, it does actually create a period of easterlies and numerical instability into the SW Atlantic Basin, where there is still plenty of oceanic heat content should something get going.   Interesting.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah - there was only one person calling for bermuda blues and a warm, dry afternoon. 

 

Tomorrow may be a bit fun - let's hope for some action because it has been so boring lately.

 

Concur -- my god. 

 

anyway, that's funny because I was looking BUFKIT's indices for Orange and Westfield..  I gotta say, that looks kind of interesting.  TT's or only in the mid 40s, but... Helicity goes nuts in the late afternoon.  There's like 50kts of mid level SW flow rolling over the top of 30kt BL jet from the SSE. 

 

Also, the LCLs drill down to less than 1,200 feet!   I could almost see some of those low-cape, high mechanical -type mesos embedded in that.  Don't have to have huge SBCAPE to get one of those Quabin Res type funnels up underneath a weak/moderate bounded rotation

 

Those scenarios are notoriously difficult to ferret out.  It's just whenever low LCL's combine with good mechanics, it kind of creates a non-standard severe model where the more typical rules don't apply.   I don't think that type of set-up is scienced enough, btw, but that's just me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup...  Btw, in my estimation this might be the best forcing for lift we have seen spring, summer and autumn.  

 

 

BUT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.  OVERALL SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-TOPPED ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWS. EVEN MODESTLY SUSTAINED /PERHAPS EVEN NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING/ EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Yup...  Btw, in my estimation this might be the best forcing for lift we have seen spring, summer and autumn.  

 

 

BUT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED BUOYANCY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A MARKED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.  OVERALL SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE LOW-TOPPED ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE BOWS. EVEN MODESTLY SUSTAINED /PERHAPS EVEN NON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING/ EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS MAY CAUSE CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.

 

Who is this for? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Certainly no torch anywhere to be seen. The folks from Jersey and other areas in SNE yelling for a massive warm Oct are in deep doo doo

 

Burlington is +7.3F through the first 5 days and tomorrow will only add to that (+15F on the high and probably +10 on the low). Then for the next week there's zero below normal air anywhere. Our climos are falling rapidly. Normal high at BTV is now 61F and low is 42F.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Burlington is +7.3F through the first 5 days and tomorrow will only add to that (+15F on the high and probably +10 on the low). Then for the next week there's zero below normal air anywhere. Our climos are falling rapidly. Normal high at BTV is now 61F and low is 42F.

 

This is a tough time of year for him. He doesn't know whether to bang the drum for deep, deep winter or high, high dews.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Burlington is +7.3F through the first 5 days and tomorrow will only add to that (+15F on the high and probably +10 on the low). Then for the next week there's zero below normal air anywhere. Our climos are falling rapidly. Normal high at BTV is now 61F and low is 42F.

its cold in my house, not sure about what climo says but no torch today
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...