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October Banter and discussion


CoastalWx

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Must have been a strong fire to see it on radar at that distance.  I've found you need very strong updrafts and large chunks of ash, which by the accounts there have been in Quincy.  Grass fires are only seen well very close or with a W band radar or something. 

 

This was from a huge mill fire in Holyoke... (sorry about all the interference)

 

movie-Reflectivity-ParsonsMillFire.gif

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If there's not a little worry and concern creeping into your mind about winter then more power to you. It's not time to panic or go crazy, but a little worry should start to enter the conversation

Were you worried about not seeing heat and humidity this past summer when it was snowing on Memorial Day Weekend?

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that's a nasty storm up there on the euro. assuming the lowest levels are cold enough - which they likely are - that's probably a blizzard...with a lot of precip too. :lol:

 

 

Epic pattern for Northern Cascades over to Yellowstone too for snow. They are going to have an awesome snow pack there for so early in the season. They often get snow anyway this time of the year, but this is like 6-8 feet of snow in a week or less going back to middle of last week...perhaps more for the highest spots.

 

 

 

OP Euro also now going big +PNA ridge now at the end of its run in clown range. That would change up the middle-October look to much colder if it happened. Not biting though until ensembles start to support it.,...they hinted at a bit of retrogression at D13-15, but not the D8-10 range like the OP run has today at 12z.

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Their winter ended in mid-May and now they might see a substantial snow event on Oct 4-5th. :lol:

They get some phenomenal early and late season storms...the problem is the three months in mid-winter with the suppressed jet and arctic cold with ground blizzards. They can get very dry and boring for a good chunk of the winter, but very exciting in the transition seasons.

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They get some phenomenal early and late season storms...the problem is the three months in mid-winter with the suppressed jet and arctic cold with ground blizzards. They can get very dry and boring for a good chunk of the winter, but very exciting in the transition seasons.

 

It's toaster bath material mid-winter. I made the trip for Cornell hockey when they played NoDak in November of 2008, I couldn't imagine January.

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OP Euro also now going big +PNA ridge now at the end of its run in clown range. That would change up the middle-October look to much colder if it happened. Not biting though until ensembles start to support it.,...they hinted at a bit of retrogression at D13-15, but not the D8-10 range like the OP run has today at 12z.

Seems like GFS ens like the idea a bit as well after day 11 as an Aleutian low becomes the dominant feature and rips up heights downstream.

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Seems like GFS ens like the idea a bit as well after day 11 as an Aleutian low becomes the dominant feature and rips up heights downstream.

 

 

Yeah they are more bullish than EC ensembles for how soon they do it...but its possible that taking both into account would be hinting at a colder pattern after the first two weeks of October for us. The cold before that is limited to the northern plains and perhaps the GL.

 

12z GEFS are def a big shift versus the earlier runs. The 00z Euro ens showed a muted version of it but later in the period closer to D14-15. So its far out on that suite...we'll have to see how they look over the next several days.

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Yeah they are more bullish than EC ensembles for how soon they do it...but its possible that taking both into account would be hinting at a colder pattern after the first two weeks of October for us. The cold before that is limited to the northern plains and perhaps the GL.

 

12z GEFS are def a big shift versus the earlier runs. The 00z Euro ens showed a muted version of it but later in the period closer to D14-15. So its far out on that suite...we'll have to see how they look over the next several days.

 

You're right of course it's so far out we shouldn't get wrapped up in the details, but what it's not suggesting is any help from the Atlantic meaning even if the +PNA came to pass there's no guarantee we don't see something drop down and lift out west of us.   Pattern wise it would be a step up IMO as the amplification alone is a positive sign.

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From Blue Hill 

A large building fire broke in Quincy Center late

this morning and the black smoke could still be seen

early this afternoon to the ENE.  Visibility was

reduced to about 10 miles in that direction while

the mountains of southern New Hampshire could be

seen 60 to 70 to the northwest with just some light

distant haze.

 

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From Blue Hill 

A large building fire broke in Quincy Center late

this morning and the black smoke could still be seen

early this afternoon to the ENE.  Visibility was

reduced to about 10 miles in that direction while

the mountains of southern New Hampshire could be

seen 60 to 70 to the northwest with just some light

distant haze.

It was an Historic Masonic Temple.

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From Blue Hill 

A large building fire broke in Quincy Center late

this morning and the black smoke could still be seen

early this afternoon to the ENE.  Visibility was

reduced to about 10 miles in that direction while

the mountains of southern New Hampshire could be

seen 60 to 70 to the northwest with just some light

distant haze.

 

Ginxy did I not take you off the email list? I don't observe there anymore but I thought I did, unless you are getting that off bluehill.org.

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You're right of course it's so far out we shouldn't get wrapped up in the details, but what it's not suggesting is any help from the Atlantic meaning even if the +PNA came to pass there's no guarantee we don't see something drop down and lift out west of us. Pattern wise it would be a step up IMO as the amplification alone is a positive sign.

It looks as if the trough will initially remain well west of us with the strong +NAO pattern; the Atlantic is miserable for bringing cold into the East. Also, the PV is centered over the Asian Arctic/Siberia with the +EPO making Canada fairly mild. The Euro OP starts to change this at the end as ridging builds northward into Alaska which should begin a transition to colder in North America.

Anyone who thinks that October is going to finish below normal is nuts IMO. Sorry Blizz. We'll be at least +5 after the first 7-10 days and the cold is going to hit the Plains and Upper Midwest long before the East. Overall October looks warm, but that's not a bad thing for winter, at least in New England.

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