IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z GFS tracks future Karin from the Gulf straight up the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 October 2006 and 2009 certainly led to very snowier winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Will you relax. It goes to show you the increased thermal gradient developing. Thanks to tropics and southward sinking Polar jet which is expected with snowpack increase over Siberia. It's not just the developing terrestrial thermo gradient in Siberia either... the persistent warm pool in the N Pac has led to fast flow in that region for most of last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not just the developing terrestrial thermo gradient in Siberia either... the persistent warm pool in the N Pac has led to fast flow in that region for most of last month. That -PDO isn't going anywhere either. It can be a great pattern for us in winter though as long as we have some cross-polar in NW Canada/AK...that pac jet slams into a ridge...and can even undercut it sometimes which leads to split flow. That can be a very cold/snowy pattern. As usual, the key is the EPO region. Its why we stare at it so much in November/December. We don't want a strong vortex there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wasn't the winter following Oct 2006 Mild and snowless until late January when the pattern became stormy and cold? 2009-2010 had some snow but we missed the big storms to the south of us in the Mid Atlantic region region, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 It's not just the developing terrestrial thermo gradient in Siberia either... the persistent warm pool in the N Pac has led to fast flow in that region for most of last month. Yep, and that jet should get another boost again too. We just had a 200kt jet there last week which is quite strong for this time of year...even with an extrop transitioning storm aiding it. The vortex up there is definitely enhancing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wasn't the winter following Oct 2006 Mild and snowless until late January when the pattern became stormy and cold? 2009-2010 had some snow but we missed the big storms to the south of us in the Mid Atlantic region region, right? Correct. '06-'07 did flip to extremely cold at the end of January 2007 and stayed that way for 6 weeks. '09-'10 had tremendous blocking and was a very cold winter over most of the CONUS (16th coldest on record actually)...but we got stuck in the extreme blocking nuances to miss several storms and the heart of the cold stayed west and south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wasn't the winter following Oct 2006 Mild and snowless until late January when the pattern became stormy and cold? 2009-2010 had some snow but we missed the big storms to the south of us in the Mid Atlantic region region, right? Which is why people shouldn't worry about some low anomalies near AK on 10/2. I'm sure Powderfreak wasn't thinking one of the worst NNE winters ever to happen a few months after October 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Yeah, the winter of 2009-2010 had so much potential to be a great one in new england, but it was just okay. The biggest disappointment to me was that early Feb 2010 storm that was poorly forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Which is why people shouldn't worry about some low anomalies near AK on 10/2. I'm sure Powderfreak wasn't thinking one of the worst NNE winters ever to happen a few months after October 2009. '05-'06 was horrific up in NNE too after they got hammered with 2 different snow events late in October 2005. '07 was an all out torch and the snowfall was epic for CNE/NNE that winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Thank God this link works. This should save life and property. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/ Al gore is running it out of his basement ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Wanna bet you get into the 78-81 ranges? Few drinks/sodas at GTG Swing and a miss. You were close though. 70.8/59 at 1:20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 And getting back to the Siberia snow, the pattern IMHO looks great for the building of snowpack down even to 55N or so at the very least. The SAI equatorward of 60N is what is really important heading through October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 And getting back to the Siberia snow, the pattern IMHO looks great for the building of snowpack down even to 55N or so at the very least. The SAI equatorward of 60N is what is really important heading through October. Ignorance at work here.......what is SAI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Al gore is running it out of his basement ........... Global Warming is suspended until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 Ignorance at work here.......what is SAI? Ignorance at work here.......what is SAI? Ignorance at work here.......what is SAI? Sorry, it means the Snow Advance Index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 80 here, 77 at BDR-definitely coming in under what was forecast yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Is there a website for people with terrible memories tracking good, bad, and ugly winters in terms of snowfall for New England, New Hampshire, or just for skiiers? Sometimes people post analogous October observations regarding recent winters but I've got no memory for that sort of thing and would love to have a bookmark that I can look up with observations or snowfall numbers by year. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Is there a website for people with terrible memories tracking good, bad, and ugly winters in terms of snowfall for New England, New Hampshire, or just for skiiers? Sometimes people post analogous October observations regarding recent winters but I've got no memory for that sort of thing and would love to have a bookmark that I can look up with observations or snowfall numbers by year. Thanks best resource I have found is www.ORH_wxman.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 best resource I have found is www.ORH_wxman.com lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 best resource I have found is www.ORH_wxman.com Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It would be funny if we got Kevin's 20-40 days of HHH starting on October 2nd. lol, Dews in the 60s, feeling nice and muggy out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 lol, Dews in the 60s, feeling nice and muggy out there! Dews nearing 60F up here...70/58 currently and feels humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 best resource I have found is www.ORH_wxman.com Too bad he's preoccupied with a wedding and all, as if that were more important than snow stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Impressive -PNAP construct to the flow on the 12z oper. Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Is there a website for people with terrible memories tracking good, bad, and ugly winters in terms of snowfall for New England, New Hampshire, or just for skiiers? Sometimes people post analogous October observations regarding recent winters but I've got no memory for that sort of thing and would love to have a bookmark that I can look up with observations or snowfall numbers by year. Thanks For your backyard in terms of snowfall, back through the last couple decades, I'd rank the following winters as: 2012-2013: Above average 2011-2012: Well below average 2010-2011: Above average 2009-2010: Below average 2008-2009: Above average 2007-2008: Well above average 2006-2007: Below average 2005-2006: Near average to slightly below average 2004-2005: Well above average 2003-2004: Slightly below average 2002-2003: Above average 2001-2002: Well below average 2000-2001: Well above average 1999-2000: Well below average 1998-1999: Well below average 1997-1998: Below average 1996-1997: Slightly below average 1995-1996: Well above average 1994-1995: Well below average 1993-1994: Above average 1992-1993: Well above average 1991-1992: Well below average 1990-1991: Well below average That is just total snowfall...doesn't say anything about temps. Though most of the good years were colder. But years like last year can be the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That is a toasty Euro run...outdoor activities galore. Break out the bananna hammocks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Thanks very much! (Above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Feels like an early fall day, albeit on the humid side. 69.8/59 off a high of 71.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Feels like an early fall day, albeit on the humid side. 69.8/59 off a high of 71.0 Early fall acting like early fall? Although it's way above normal, the sun just doesn't have the oomph. 80 feels like July 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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