FallsLake Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I hope this is not the one time that it is exactly right 10 days out. I really don't want rain on Halloween, at least not between 6 and 8 pm. Same here. Two years back it poured between 6 and 8. My kids actually did well because everybody felt sorry for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Where does Larry Cosgrove see it getting cold again at on any of the models? I see the storm, not the cold. This is the overnight superensemble for Nov 1-7. It looks like there would be a cool down after the front (but with less impact in the SE), then a gradual moderating trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 6z GFS still showing rain for many across the SE on Halloween. If this holds up this would be a great job by the model to verify a stormy pattern at over 10 days out. **but I'm really hoping it's wrong or at least the timing is wrong. I'm not too worried about this yet, for our area anyway. The 6Z is a fast outlier. The 0Z, the 0Z Euro and the 0Z Canadian eh all bring the precip in after Halloween night. If they start to speed things up too, then I'd be more concerned. Robert has been talking about the potential for a storm in the Central/Eastern part of the US around Halloween. DT made a facebook post disagreeing with him about it. It does indeed look like there will be a storm around that time period, moving from somewhere around the midsouth to near the Lakes. It doesn't look like a terribly big deal for our area -- just some frontal rains/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Same here. Two years back it poured between 6 and 8. My kids actually did well because everybody felt sorry for them. Yes, I remember that well, because the local forecasters were saying the rain would be done before 6:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 You can see the cold pour in after the storm starts to depart. Run the loop http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=polar&cycle=20131024%2006%20UTC¶m=500_temp_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Well the 12z GFS still shows the wet weather for Halloween. It would actually be really wet across a good portion of SC and NC (late on the 31st). Of course this is 7 days out but it almost feels like we are doomed to have a wet Halloween. The one time you want the models to be wrong and they'll probably end up being dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Outside of the CLT region (which will likely be in the 27-29F range) this map echoes my thoughts on the forecast lows for Friday night quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Well the 12z GFS still shows the wet weather for Halloween. It would actually be really wet across a good portion of SC and NC (late on the 31st). Of course this is 7 days out but it almost feels like we are doomed to have a wet Halloween. The one time you want the models to be wrong and they'll probably end up being dead on. GFS still looks like the fast outlier. CMC shows sprinkles/drizzle and the Euro still looks dry. It may be hanging too much energy out in the SW for too long. I guess we will see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 GFS still looks like the fast outlier. CMC shows sprinkles/drizzle and the Euro still looks dry. It may be hanging too much energy out in the SW for too long. I guess we will see.... Man I sure hope so. One of the few days of the year I really enjoy walking through the neighborhood (with dry weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 If even halloween does get rained out its not like it can be postponed till the 1st. I'd imagine it would be hectic having to deal with getting little kids home from school, trying to do homework, feed them, and get ready for trick or treat and later getting them wind down from all the excitement to eventually get them in bed for school the following day. Yeah it maybe a bummer for them but life is not necessarily a cake walk and roses all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm not too worried about this yet, for our area anyway. The 6Z is a fast outlier. The 0Z, the 0Z Euro and the 0Z Canadian eh all bring the precip in after Halloween night. If they start to speed things up too, then I'd be more concerned. Robert has been talking about the potential for a storm in the Central/Eastern part of the US around Halloween. DT made a facebook post disagreeing with him about it. It does indeed look like there will be a storm around that time period, moving from somewhere around the midsouth to near the Lakes. It doesn't look like a terribly big deal for our area -- just some frontal rains/storms. and he just made this post: Wxrisk.com the THURSDAY Euro show the threat of possible SIGNIFICANT SEVERE Weather from NC to New England NOV 1 Like · · Share · 621 · 3 minutes ago · lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 A lot of talk about Halloween but I would really not trust any model right know past day 5. Just got in and looked at the Euro and what a turn around from Last nights run. Looks much more cooler and maybe another trough coming through the East. Learning a lot about these Tropical systems recurving and how it affects the pattern and how the models really have a low skill level forecasting the impacts of this. There is a great thread in the Philly subforum and one out in the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 and he just made this post: Wxrisk.com the THURSDAY Euro show the threat of possible SIGNIFICANT SEVERE Weather from NC to New England NOV 1 Like · · Share · 621 · 3 minutes ago · lolz. Lol wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 A lot of talk about Halloween but I would really not trust any model right know past day 5. Just got in and looked at the Euro and what a turn around from Last nights run. Looks much more cooler and maybe another trough setting up in the East. Learning a lot about these Tropical systems recurving and how it affects the pattern and how the models really have a low skill level forecasting the impacts of this. There is a great thread in the Philly subforum and one out in the main forum. The trough isn't going to set up. The AO will still be quite positive. The pattern isn't changing for the colder any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The trough isn't going to set up. The AO will still be quite positive. The pattern isn't changing for the colder any time soon. Yes your right just pointing out how unreliable the models are right know with so much change in the global pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yes your right just pointing out how unreliable the models are right know with so much change in the global pattern.We can all agree how unreliable the LR models are; but it has been interesting how persistent the GFS has been depicting a wet pattern for somebody in the SE. As of the 6z it still shows a wet Halloween for many (like me). Kind of funny, we usually track a storm hoping it will effect us. This is a rare time where I'm hoping it will miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 GFS still looks like the fast outlier. CMC shows sprinkles/drizzle and the Euro still looks dry. It may be hanging too much energy out in the SW for too long. I guess we will see.... Man I sure hope so. One of the few days of the year I really enjoy walking through the neighborhood (with dry weather). Hope so, too. Just stay dry long enough for the trick-or-treating to get done. I love Halloween and my kids going trick-or-treating and handing out the candy at the house. Also looks like we might have to look out for the potential of severe weather. Going to be interesting for sure. Meanwhile, NC got it's first snowfall last night! This at App State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The trough isn't going to set up. The AO will still be quite positive. The pattern isn't changing for the colder any time soon. There will be a reprieve for a week or so, but definitely not torching. Models in the past couple of days are showing another block building in the Pacific. AO/NAO hold + but I think that may change as we move into Nov as building heights from the Pacific move into the arctic and displace the PV toward NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 If KATL can drop to 32 tonight it will be the earliest fall freeze since 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 If KATL can drop to 32 tonight it will be the earliest fall freeze since 1965. That is going to be a close one! It'll probably just come down to if winds decouple an hour or so before sunrise. Latest lamp guidance has it stuck at 36 for four hours, which tells me there is definitely potential for it to take a plunge towards the 32 mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Really dry in the SE over the last 2 months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 From Ryan Hanrahan: Looks like the chill relaxes next week then more cool wx 11/1-11/10 as ridging over AK dislodges more Arctic cold. http://pic.twitter.com/2rdkHNC9LN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Not too bad though considering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 2 runs in a row of Euro showing this backdoor front mid next week. Would probably end up getting some CAD as a result of this if we end up with a lakes cutter track for next weeks storm. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE ECMWF DEPICTS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. THEN LATER IN THE WEEK...BOTH MODELS PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GFS ABOUT A DAY FASTER... PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS BY EARLY FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 GFS still a day faster (Halloween) than the Euro. It'll be interesting to see which is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 and he just made this post: Wxrisk.com the THURSDAY Euro show the threat of possible SIGNIFICANT SEVERE Weather from NC to New England NOV 1 Like · · Share · 621 · 3 minutes ago · lolz. He's so schizo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 He's so schizo. I still can't believe I was being accused of being the guy who was compared to this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 MSP had its first freeze on October 21, CLT on October 24. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 If KATL can drop to 32 tonight it will be the earliest fall freeze since 1965. Knowing how poorly KATL does with freezes that depend on good radiational cooling (850's are +2 to +3 C), I'm thinking only a very low chance for KATL to make it to 32...maybe 5%. That would require about a 24 degree drop from today's high. The past tells me to not expect it. However, 35 is quite impressive for sure. 35-36 sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1300m Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Knowing how poorly KATL does with freezes that depend on good radiational cooling (850's are +2 to +3 C), I'm thinking only a very low chance for KATL to make it to 32...maybe 5%. That would require about a 24 degree drop from today's high. The past tells me to not expect it. However, 35 is quite impressive for sure. 35-36 sounds reasonable. I feel confident ATL can get to at least 34 and if the winds decouple then 32 is totally possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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