Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It's getting ready for winter. GFS shows severe cold arriving the first week of Jan. second week, fourth week of Jan, second week of Feb, around Mach 1, 2nd week of March BULLETIN FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Early spring for Southeast. Lol Ya funny. Always pushes the col back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Beautiful ridge out West and trough in the East right through the end of the month. Looks like everything is progressing along for this next week and beyond. Looks like we could have a big shot of cold air right around Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It's getting ready for winter. GFS shows severe cold arriving the first week of Jan. second week, fourth week of Jan, second week of Feb, around Mach 1, 2nd week of March BULLETIN FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Early spring for Southeast. this is pretty awesome and true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Euro showing what the 00z GFS has been showing. The pattern the next two weeks looks pretty good if you like colder stormy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 First frost advisory of the season for Swain, Haywood, Graham, Northern Jackson, Macon, and Southern Jackson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 First frost advisory of the season for Swain, Haywood, Graham, Northern Jackson, Macon, and Southern Jackson.finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 finally! Lol ya but pretty much right at climo wise. Also looking at the GFS this morning the trough is sharper and that's exactly what we need to get the cold air and moisture in here to possibly see our first flakes of the season. Also this pattern that is setting up is a thing of beauty. Wow seems like we have not seen a pattern like this for about 2 years. Right through Halloween we are looking at an ideal pattern for a stormy cold pattern for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 So it looks like the end of next week will bring most of the board their first 30s of the season! So metal will probably see his first low in the 70s for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 So it looks like the end of next week will bring most of the board their first 30s of the season! So metal will probably see his first low in the 70s for the season? :lmao:I have a forecast low of 44 for Thursday morning. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Wow! some really cool/cold temps forecasted for next week. Current forecast for my area has highs in the low to mid 50s; with sunny skies. If the winds can go calm we would definitely be looking at a chance of at least a light freeze if not a hard freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Well been working alot so haven't had much time to post. But working on another .10" of rain and more to come today. Next couple weeks looks like prime setup for miller b rainstorms. Very well could finish out the month of Oct on a wet pattern with near to above ave rainfall. Finally glad to see 30s in the forecast. Even though not forecasted tomorrow night 30s seem possible along with wedsnesday morning. Then the temps go downhill to atleast sunday. Wow! some really cool/cold temps forecasted for next week. Current forecast for my area has highs in the low to mid 50s; with sunny skies. If the winds can go calm we would definitely be looking at a chance of at least a light freeze if not a hard freeze. Friday morning and Saturday morning are the days to watch. DPs are forecasted to be in the mid 20s both nights. So with near prefect conitions for radiational cooling a hard freeze(25-30degree) is more than likely. This time next week the official growing season will be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Well been working alot so haven't had much time to post. But working on another .10" of rain and more to come today. Next couple weeks looks like prime setup for miller b rainstorms. Very well could finish out the month of Oct on a wet pattern with near to above ave rainfall. Finally glad to see 30s in the forecast. Even though not forecasted tomorrow night 30s seem possible along with wedsnesday morning. Then the temps go downhill to atleast sunday. Friday morning and Saturday morning are the days to watch. DPs are forecasted to be in the mid 20s both nights. So with near prefect conitions for radiational cooling a hard freeze(25-30degree) is more than likely. This time next week the official growing season will be over. It's like clock work down here. Come Oct 20th, the cold air appears, way, way more years than not. Climo is an amazing, wonderful thing Hope you are right about the rain. I've eked out .3 over the last few days, and need lots more than that. I like how the GFS keeps pushing moisture up into strong Atlantic highs. I'd love to see a lot that in Jan. and Feb. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Well looking at the pattern and the GFS and the Euro the rest of the month is going to be downright cold for this time of the year. Again how I wish this pattern was in January because we would be rocking. Anyway the period on the Euro from know until the end of the 10 days looks below average with a low rotating along the bottom of the trough in the East. Would mean some nasty cold weather more much of the SE and possibly some snow in the mountains. This new low just showed up though. On the GFS it looks like right through Halloween we are going to see very cold air for this time of the year. We have several shots of reenforcing shots of cold air in the time period. What is amazing is how well the GFS and the Euro agree on this pattern right through the end of the month.Should be a fun couple of weeks because the NAO and the AO look to go very positive in the first of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Hope this pattern we are going to see the end of October can come back in January and February, but with lots of precip. Don't want to see any rain on Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It's like clock work down here. Come Oct 20th, the cold air appears, way, way more years than not. Climo is an amazing, wonderful thing Hope you are right about the rain. I've eked out .3 over the last few days, and need lots more than that. I like how the GFS keeps pushing moisture up into strong Atlantic highs. I'd love to see a lot that in Jan. and Feb. Tony Mother nature knows what she is doing. If climo has come and gone with no frost then I'd say be worried. One thing Ive notice is the STJ has been pretty active over the last week or so. IF that continues with the deep polar vortex that is suppose to develop in S. Canada then the miller b type storms should have no problem getting moisture. Well looking at the pattern and the GFS and the Euro the rest of the month is going to be downright cold for this time of the year. Again how I wish this pattern was in January because we would be rocking. Anyway the period on the Euro from know until the end of the 10 days looks below average with a low rotating along the bottom of the trough in the East. Would mean some nasty cold weather more much of the SE and possibly some snow in the mountains. This new low just showed up though. On the GFS it looks like right through Halloween we are going to see very cold air for this time of the year. We have several shots of reenforcing shots of cold air in the time period. What is amazing is how well the GFS and the Euro agree on this pattern right through the end of the month.Should be a fun couple of weeks because the NAO and the AO look to go very positive in the first of November. Dude look at the pattern. The pattern that is suppose to set up it will too hard to pinpoint what is going to happen 72 hours out let a known further with the amount of s/w engery rotating around the PV. All it takes is the right placement of a couple s/w and a miller b bomb will be going up the coast. But chillax some I'd say a high probablility that you and other mountain folks will have the first flakes by the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Mother nature knows what she is doing. If climo has come and gone with no frost then I'd say be worried. One thing Ive notice is the STJ has been pretty active over the last week or so. IF that continues with the deep polar vortex that is suppose to develop in S. Canada then the miller b type storms should have no problem getting moisture. Dude look at the pattern. The pattern that is suppose to set up it will too hard to pinpoint what is going to happen 72 hours out let a known further with the amount of s/w engery rotating around the PV. All it takes is the right placement of a couple s/w and a miller b bomb will be going up the coast. But chillax some I'd say a high probablility that you and other mountain folks will have the first flakes by the 1st. Hey sorry if i am a bit excited about this upcoming pattern just because it is going to be our real first taste of fall/winter feel to it. Also just thought I would post what I was seeing on today's model runs because no one else had yet. If you feel like I am over posting then please let a mod know about your concerns. Yes there are a couple of chances for some high mountain snow for the mountains over the next 2 weeks but slim at best right know but the GFS and the Euro have been pretty consistent showing this favorable pattern for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 WGHP going with lows in the 20s next weekend in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Hey sorry if i am a bit excited about this upcoming pattern just because it is going to be our real first taste of fall/winter feel to it. Also just thought I would post what I was seeing on today's model runs because no one else had yet. If you feel like I am over posting then please let a mod know about your concerns. Yes there are a couple of chances for some high mountain snow for the mountains over the next 2 weeks but slim at best right know but the GFS and the Euro have been pretty consistent showing this favorable pattern for a while. My bad that wasnt my intentions by the post I made. But you're not the only one that is excited and very optimistic about this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 My bad that wasnt my intentions by the post I made. But you're not the only one that is excited and very optimistic about this coming winter. Hey no problem. I agree this might be a good sign for the upcoming winter but what sticks out at me is that we have not seen a two week pattern like this in over two years. Really wish this was in January but hey enjoy it while we can who knows what winter will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 From CPC today for Oct 25-29... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 WGHP going with lows in the 20s next weekend in the Triad. Yeah, well they also went for this for today. Lows will be in the lower 50's by morning, but temperatures will warm up nicely through the day, courtesy of a southwest breeze. Mostly cloudy skies stick around until the dinner hour, and highs will be in the lower 70's. Our rain chances will be quite low, around 20%, and that is mainly for the southern and eastern end of the Piedmont. We had 61 for an airport high with drizzle all day. Based on that, the 20s next weekend could be anywhere from the teens to the fifties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 WGHP was not alone in missing today's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Here comes Winter Weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 WGHP was not alone in missing today's forecast. I only mentioned them because that was who you quoted for your 20s statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 First frost/freeze for many still on. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 522 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-210930- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 522 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MANY AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE THE FIRST FROST AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Weather Channel is going with a high of 40 with rain and snow on Wednesday here in Boone. Not sure how I feel about this, nevertheless I couldn't be more excited for my first winter here in Boone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Weather Channel is going with a high of 40 with rain and snow on Wednesday here in Boone. Not sure how I feel about this, nevertheless I couldn't be more excited for my first winter here in Boone! I'm sure everybody up there has already informed you of this, but Raysweather is your best friend when it comes to weather for the high country. He manages the micro-climates of the high terrain much better than the big fellas like TWC and AccuWx. Anyway, he too is mentioning flurries or snow showers for Wednesday: http://booneweather.com/Forecast/Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 There is definitely a chance of a few snow showers/flurries in the mountains of North Carolina on Wednesday. It should be interesting to watch in the mid-week time frame. Then, cold air funnels in with our first frost and/or freeze possible by the end of next week. Lots of cold air, now only if we can get it to hang around through March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Bring it on!! SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 410 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073>076-211200- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG... NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD 410 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013 ...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING... A COOL DRY AIR MASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 36 OR 37 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THIS COLD COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF VERY LIGHT FROST. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT NORMALLY GETS FROST WHEN OTHERS DO NOT...YOU MAY WANT TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION TONIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FROST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER THIS WEEK. $$ North Wake County forecast --Thursday to Sunday ****Notice the low of 28 Friday night Thursday Sunny, with a high near 60. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. Friday Sunny, with a high near 57. Friday Night Clear, with a low around 28. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 57. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 35. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I'm not aware of a comprehensive writeup on neutral ENSO. It will largely be dependent on the PDO/NAO-AO combo. As far as I can best tell, neutrals are generally all over the map although neutral positive may have a slight cold edge over neutral negative. There were two quite cold neutral positive ENSO winters for sure: 1884-5 and 1935-6. For 1935-6, PDO was +1.5, NAO was -2.0, and AO was -2.4. 20 of the 26 +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters were NOT weak Nino’s. Only 4 of those 20 that were +PDO/-NAO/-AO and that weren’t weak Nino’s (20%) were within the 11 coldest. So, whereas it helps a lot to have the +PDO/-NAO/-AO combo, regardless of ENSO, the combo has done by far the best with weak El Nino. I put the odds of a weak Nino by this winter (per ONI definition) to be well under 5%. Basically, it is too late barring some extremely anomalous, sudden rise in 3.4. The better chances would be for a weak Nina although neutral would easily be favored. It appears that any El Nino, if there is going to be one anytime soon, would need to wait til spring at the earliest to be fully in effect. Larry, these are monthly snowfall accumulation maps from 1935/1936 that I posted some time ago at Easternuswx. Nearly thirty inches of snow fell that winter southeast of Charlotte. December 1935 January 1936 February 1936 March 1936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.