October 2013 pattern and discussion

[DaculaWeather]

YES! Thanks Larry! That is good stuff there!

[DaculaWeather]

Larry, since it's looking more and more like a neutral year, how would that change in of these numbers? It seems like I remember another one of your post that talked about that also.

[Met1985]

Man, the 0z GFS was cold. 6z wasn't overly warm. Looks like the GFS is sniffing out a major pattern change. Interestingly, it does seem that cold and snow in late October have not been an indicator of a subsequent cold winter here in NE TN. I am not "all in" on this going East. Strong possibility it could come down the front range of the Rockies. Either way, winter in the northern plains is here early.

With the NAO tanking like it has I would be very surprised not to see at least one large cold shot in the Eastern US. Euro started showing what the GFS has been showing off and on for a couple of days know especially if that ridge develops in the West. The blocking coming in though shows signs of a big cool down coming in. Hey like you said get the snow pack building out West then bring it East through the rest of the Season.

[GaWx]

Larry, since it's looking more and more like a neutral year, how would that change in of these numbers? It seems like I remember another one of your post that talked about that also.

 

 I'm not aware of a comprehensive writeup on neutral ENSO. It will largely be dependent on the PDO/NAO-AO combo. As far as I can best tell, neutrals are generally all over the map although neutral positive may have a slight cold edge over neutral negative. There were two quite cold neutral positive ENSO winters for sure: 1884-5 and 1935-6.

 

For 1935-6, PDO was +1.5, NAO was -2.0, and AO was -2.4.

 

 20 of the 26 +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters were NOT weak Nino’s. Only 4 of those 20 that were +PDO/-NAO/-AO and that weren’t weak Nino’s (20%) were within the 11 coldest. So, whereas it helps a lot to have the +PDO/-NAO/-AO combo, regardless of ENSO, the combo has done by far the best with weak El Nino.

 

 I put the odds of a weak Nino by this winter (per ONI definition) to be well under 5%. Basically, it is too late barring some extremely anomalous, sudden rise in 3.4. The better chances would be for a weak Nina although neutral would easily be favored.

 

 It appears that any El Nino, if there is going to be one anytime soon, would need to wait til spring at the earliest to be fully in effect.

[dsaur]

 I'm not aware of a comprehensive writeup on neutral ENSO. It will largely be dependent on the PDO/NAO-AO combo. As far as I can best tell, neutrals are generally all over the map although neutral positive may have a slight cold edge over neutral negative. There were two quite cold neutral positive ENSO winters for sure: 1884-5 and 1935-6.

 

For 1935-6, PDO was +1.5, NAO was -2.0, and AO was -2.4.

 

 20 of the 26 +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters were NOT weak Nino’s. Only 4 of those 20 that were +PDO/-NAO/-AO and that weren’t weak Nino’s (20%) were within the 11 coldest. So, whereas it helps a lot to have the +PDO/-NAO/-AO combo, regardless of ENSO, the combo has done by far the best with weak El Nino.

 

 I put the odds of a weak Nino by this winter (per ONI definition) to be well under 5%. Basically, it is to late barring some extremely anomalous, sudden rise in 3.4. The better chances would be for a weak Nina although neutral would easily be favored.

 

 It appears that any El Nino, if there is going to be one anytime soon, would need to wait til spring at the earliest to be fully in effect.

As per usual I'm more worried about wet, than cold.  It always gets cold in winter, and having it very cold only helps if there is enough rain to make it more than a very dry cold.  So what does your magic abacus say about my chances of at least a normal winter rain fall after an exceedingly dry fall preceded by a wet spring, and so so  summer?  I'll always take extra moisture, and some timing, over bitter cold, as far as ip/sn are concerned,  and take my chances when it's hovering around 33, and hope for some low td's to beat out the waa   Then let the blast of cold air come in after.  Without rain, it's just bitter cold, and heat bills with no redeeming quality, unless you love cold like I do.  But then I separate my love of cold from my love of sleet, as it gets cold every winter, and without rain and timing, it's just more sleetless cold, like so many winters in most of Ga.                   Moleless Tony

[GaWx]

As per usual I'm more worried about wet, than cold.  It always gets cold in winter, and having it very cold only helps if there is enough rain to make it more than a very dry cold.  So what does your magic abacus say about my chances of at least a normal winter rain fall after an exceedingly dry fall preceded by a wet spring, and so so  summer?  I'll always take extra moisture, and some timing, over bitter cold, as far as ip/sn are concerned,  and take my chances when it's hovering around 33, and hope for some low td's to beat out the waa   Then let the blast of cold air come in after.  Without rain, it's just bitter cold, and heat bills with no redeeming quality, unless you love cold like I do.  But then I separate my love of cold from my love of sleet, as it gets cold every winter, and without rain and timing, it's just more sleetless cold, like so many winters in most of Ga.                   Moleless Tony

 

Tony,

 Before I forget, still none of your moles here. :( I've still got ice cream and liquor ready for those partying critters.

 

 The problem is that by the time one applies the constraints you mentioned, there is essentially no dataset left to analyze. You might as well assume near normal rainfall for now. Neutral ENSO probably favors near normal rainfall fwiw.

 

 However, check out this analysis that I posted 9/30/13 in Wilkes' 2013-14 winter outlook thread regarding wintrs following back to back KATL winters with only a T of S/IP. I think you'll be happy to see it. Here it is:

 

"Folks,

 Prior to 2011-12/2012-13, KATL hadn't had back to back seasons of a trace or less of S/IP since 1973-4/1974-5. Here are all of the back to back trace seasons as well as the subsequent seasons since records started in 1879:

A. 1915-16/1916-17: 1917-18, a neutral negative ENSO winter, had a whopping 8.0" of S/IP, which is the 8th snowiest/sleetiest on record since 1879-80! This included a 4.9" major snow/sleet (much of it sleet) 12/11-13. There also was a major ZR 1/21! This was the 12th coldest DJF on record. This was easily a top 10 winter for Atlanta weenies!

B. 1943-44/1944-45: 1945-46, a weak La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP as well as a major ZR 12/24-25 for Santa! DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

C. 1948-49/1949-50: 1950-51, a weak La Nina, had only a T of S/IP. This was the only instance on record with three seasons in a row with only a T. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

D. The subsequent season, 1951-52, a weak El Nino, had a major S/IP of 3.9" on 2/26. DJF averaged above normal temperaturewise.

E. 1955-56/1956-7: 1957-58, a strong El Nino, had a significant S/IP of 2.7" on 2/15. DJF averaged below normal temperaturewise.

F. 1973-74/1974-75: 1975-76, a strong La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

Summary: For the six KATL following back to back T of S/IP seasons, there were an impressive 4 major winter storms vs. an expected value of about 3 in 6 seasons. Getting 2 major ZR's in 6 seasons beat the average somewhat. Getting an average of 2.6" S/IP for these six seasons beat the longterm average of ~2.0". Winterstormwise, I'd say that 4 of the 6 (2 of 3) would have been considered really good seasons. Meat Loaf surely would have been content. Perhaps this is somewhat encouraging for 2013-14!"

[Wow]

Latter half of Oct looking cold... GFS hinting as widespread morning temps in the 30's during next couple of weeks.

 

[Wow]

GFS trending stronger w/ the +PNA.

 

Man, would I love to see this PNA stay a predominant feature through the winter season.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=18z&param=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=174&loop=trend

[Wow]

Chilly halloween

 

[Carvers Gap]

Snowpack in central Canada should get a boost with the cold shot portrayed by the Euro and GFS.  That means, as we all know, cold gets here more quickly and not as modified.  Setting up for somebody in the lower 48 to have a cold start to winter.  Sure looks like it will be cold in the last part of October.  This does not look like a transient shot of cold either.  Europe and Asia have had some brutal cold the past two winters...makes me wonder if we are not due a turn just to balance things out.

[dsaur]

Tony,

 Before I forget, still none of your moles here. :( I've still got ice cream and liquor ready for those partying critters.

 

 The problem is that by the time one applies the constraints you mentioned, there is essentially no dataset left to analyze. You might as well assume near normal rainfall for now. Neutral ENSO probably favors near normal rainfall fwiw.

 

 However, check out this analysis that I posted 9/30/13 in Wilkes' 2013-14 winter outlook thread regarding wintrs following back to back KATL winters with only a T of S/IP. I think you'll be happy to see it. Here it is:

 

"Folks,

 Prior to 2011-12/2012-13, KATL hadn't had back to back seasons of a trace or less of S/IP since 1973-4/1974-5. Here are all of the back to back trace seasons as well as the subsequent seasons since records started in 1879:

A. 1915-16/1916-17: 1917-18, a neutral negative ENSO winter, had a whopping 8.0" of S/IP, which is the 8th snowiest/sleetiest on record since 1879-80! This included a 4.9" major snow/sleet (much of it sleet) 12/11-13. There also was a major ZR 1/21! This was the 12th coldest DJF on record. This was easily a top 10 winter for Atlanta weenies!

B. 1943-44/1944-45: 1945-46, a weak La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP as well as a major ZR 12/24-25 for Santa! DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

C. 1948-49/1949-50: 1950-51, a weak La Nina, had only a T of S/IP. This was the only instance on record with three seasons in a row with only a T. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

D. The subsequent season, 1951-52, a weak El Nino, had a major S/IP of 3.9" on 2/26. DJF averaged above normal temperaturewise.

E. 1955-56/1956-7: 1957-58, a strong El Nino, had a significant S/IP of 2.7" on 2/15. DJF averaged below normal temperaturewise.

F. 1973-74/1974-75: 1975-76, a strong La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

Summary: For the six KATL following back to back T of S/IP seasons, there were an impressive 4 major winter storms vs. an expected value of about 3 in 6 seasons. Getting 2 major ZR's in 6 seasons beat the average somewhat. Getting an average of 2.6" S/IP for these six seasons beat the longterm average of ~2.0". Winterstormwise, I'd say that 4 of the 6 (2 of 3) would have been considered really good seasons. Meat Loaf surely would have been content. Perhaps this is somewhat encouraging for 2013-14!"

Thanks, Dr. FeelGood!  Climo hope for the calamitous, lol.  I'll gladly take normal in temps and precip. and the normal occurrence of ip/sn, over the last few years offerings, except for the exceedingly cold late Jan. early Feb stretch 3 winters back.  That was some righteous cold, even if it was dry, and I'll always welcome that kind of cold anomaly, even sans the precip.  I just remember  winters in the 60's when it was true cold, but oh, so, dry! I'll take 33 and rain, over 5 degrees and sunny like I saw back then...unless the pattern's set, then I just go with the flow, and enjoy the dry bitter, and quit Jonesing for sleet

   As as aside, I'm really enjoying these cad episodes continuing from the summer.  I could sure take a normal temp cad winter, with some gulf storms to play in the caa, or even just some Atlantic freezing drizzle...anything to make it seem more like winter, lol.   T

[buckeyefan1]

With the NAO tanking like it has I would be very surprised not to see at least one large cold shot in the Eastern US. Euro started showing what the GFS has been showing off and on for a couple of days know especially if that ridge develops in the West. The blocking coming in though shows signs of a big cool down coming in. Hey like you said get the snow pack building out West then bring it East through the rest of the Season.

I agree with this

 

Tony,

 Before I forget, still none of your moles here. :( I've still got ice cream and liquor ready for those partying critters.

 

 The problem is that by the time one applies the constraints you mentioned, there is essentially no dataset left to analyze. You might as well assume near normal rainfall for now. Neutral ENSO probably favors near normal rainfall fwiw.

 

 However, check out this analysis that I posted 9/30/13 in Wilkes' 2013-14 winter outlook thread regarding wintrs following back to back KATL winters with only a T of S/IP. I think you'll be happy to see it. Here it is:

 

"Folks,

 Prior to 2011-12/2012-13, KATL hadn't had back to back seasons of a trace or less of S/IP since 1973-4/1974-5. Here are all of the back to back trace seasons as well as the subsequent seasons since records started in 1879:

A. 1915-16/1916-17: 1917-18, a neutral negative ENSO winter, had a whopping 8.0" of S/IP, which is the 8th snowiest/sleetiest on record since 1879-80! This included a 4.9" major snow/sleet (much of it sleet) 12/11-13. There also was a major ZR 1/21! This was the 12th coldest DJF on record. This was easily a top 10 winter for Atlanta weenies!

B. 1943-44/1944-45: 1945-46, a weak La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP as well as a major ZR 12/24-25 for Santa! DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

C. 1948-49/1949-50: 1950-51, a weak La Nina, had only a T of S/IP. This was the only instance on record with three seasons in a row with only a T. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

D. The subsequent season, 1951-52, a weak El Nino, had a major S/IP of 3.9" on 2/26. DJF averaged above normal temperaturewise.

E. 1955-56/1956-7: 1957-58, a strong El Nino, had a significant S/IP of 2.7" on 2/15. DJF averaged below normal temperaturewise.

F. 1973-74/1974-75: 1975-76, a strong La Nina, had 0.6" of S/IP. DJF averaged near normal temperaturewise.

Summary: For the six KATL following back to back T of S/IP seasons, there were an impressive 4 major winter storms vs. an expected value of about 3 in 6 seasons. Getting 2 major ZR's in 6 seasons beat the average somewhat. Getting an average of 2.6" S/IP for these six seasons beat the longterm average of ~2.0". Winterstormwise, I'd say that 4 of the 6 (2 of 3) would have been considered really good seasons. Meat Loaf surely would have been content. Perhaps this is somewhat encouraging for 2013-14!"

Awesome stuff Larry! Thanks!  

 

GFS trending stronger w/ the +PNA.

 

Man, would I love to see this PNA stay a predominant feature through the winter season.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=gfs&run_time=18z&param=500mbHGHT&map=NA&run_hour=174&loop=trend

+1

[Snowless in Carrollton]

So basically what Larry is saying is there is an extremely high chance that Atlanta gets more than a trace of snow or ice this winter.

[FallsLake]

Maybe some frost on the pumpkins next week?

 

RAH Long range discussion:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY... IN A VERY TIMELY TURN OF EVENTS...IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL MAY BE JUST AROUND THE CORNER. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION... AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NE ACROSS FLORIDA TO OFF THE SC COAST. THE WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED... WITH AT LEAST SOME RAIN POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE ZONES SAT-EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN HAS A MUCH MORE WINTER-LIKE LOOK FOR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE NW PIEDMONT BY MONDAY MORNING. PROJECTIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE FROST THRESHOLD FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF CHILLY AIR BY WED-THU. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FROST THREAT WITH THIS NEXT SHOT OF CHILLY AIR BY THU OR FRI... JUST ABOUT CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FROSTS OF THE SEASON IN THE PIEDMONT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
 

[Met1985]

Looks like we will see at least two shots of first cooler air then cold air as the Euro is really showing a strong push of much colder air that would give a lot of the upper south there first shot at frost next week. Looks like the first shot will be around the 20th then the second shot will be around the 24th and I would not be surprised with the second shot if the mountains saw some kind of snow falling in the favored upslope regions.

[Met1985]

Tonight's run of the GFS was the most impressive run yet for the cold shot next week. Very deep trough and even would bring some snow to the high elevations to WNC. The best thing is that we are getting into mid range with this know and the way the NAO has dropped off and really looks to stay negative for a while with the PNA really going positive this may trend colder as we get closer to this event.

[NCSNOW]

Jack Frost is coming to town next week. May make a peek appearance out in the countryside Monday morning in NC (triad possible/ not likely), but should come calling by this time next week urban and rural areas in my neck of the woods. Climo-wise that's about average around October 20th.

[FallsLake]

Jack Frost is coming to town next week. May make a peek appearance out in the countryside Monday morning in NC (triad possible/ not likely), but should come calling by this time next week urban and rural areas in my neck of the woods. Climo-wise that's about average around October 20th.

RAH is still on board for the cold. They have now mentioned the chance of frost for some rural areas Sunday night with the first cool air mass then mentioned the chance of highs only in the 50s (sunny skys) by Wednesday with the second colder air mass.

 

RAD <last part of long range>

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: EXPECT GENERALLY COOL AND DRY

FALL-LIKE WEATHER IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN

DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ON A POLAR MID LEVEL VORTEX

OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC/JAMES BAY AND THE LARGE SCALE AMPLIFYING TROUGH

OVER EASTERN NOAM. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ARRIVING FROM THE

SW EARLY SUNDAY WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY... WITH A

FAIRLY FLAT SW FLOW ALOFT... SO EXPECT SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS

GENERATING MILKY SUNSHINE BUT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE COOL WITH THICKNESSES LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 20

M BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING AND 10 M BELOW NORMAL MONDAY

MORNING... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY AND MID 60S TO AROUND

70 MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS

GOING CALM... WE`LL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR... WITH

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S... WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN RURAL

AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF FROST ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR NE TUESDAY... WHILE ENERGY FROM

CANADA DROPPING SSE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFIES THE

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MISS AND OHIO VALLEY

BY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD NC FROM THE

NW... THIS ONE BEING MUCH STRONGER PROPELLED BY A MUCH COLDER AIR

MASS. WITH THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE HANGING UP ALONG THE GULF COAST...

THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE

ERN CAROLINAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE

CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS

WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE (TUESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY

EVENING)... WHICH EQUATES TO A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE ECMWF WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE

EARLIER TIMING IS PREFERRED... AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH WPC

GUIDANCE AS WELL. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE

FRONT... DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL GO

WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60-65 RANGE... ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE

CHARACTER OF THIS EXPECTED INCOMING AIR MASS... THERE IS A CHANCE WE

MAY SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY... AND THIS ASPECT OF THE

FORECAST WILL BE REFINED FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME

PERIOD AND AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. -GIH

-- End Changed Discussion --

[Wow]

Tonight's run of the GFS was the most impressive run yet for the cold shot next week. Very deep trough and even would bring some snow to the high elevations to WNC. The best thing is that we are getting into mid range with this know and the way the NAO has dropped off and really looks to stay negative for a while with the PNA really going positive this may trend colder as we get closer to this event.

Great pattern setting up indeed.  Sure wish it was December rather than October though!  GFS continues to harp on a western ridge. By the end of the run it is extending up into the Arctic and unleashing some dead-of-winter type stuff.  Temps at 2 am, 11/1:

 

 

Oh and there's a hurricane over Cuba, too. LOL

[DaculaWeather]

Great pattern setting up indeed.  Sure wish it was December rather than October though!  GFS continues to harp on a western ridge. By the end of the run it is extending up into the Arctic and unleashing some dead-of-winter type stuff.  Temps at 2 am, 11/1:

 

 

Oh and there's a hurricane over Cuba, too. LOL

LOL!!!! You mean finally? Wouldn't that be our luck. Now, I would take below freezing temps and 8" of precip though! :-)

[nrhardin]

We are definitely on the road to a nice autumn pattern. Nothing record breaking or anything, but right on time for our first frost/freeze here in NC. As others have mentioned we get a little taste of fall this weekend and then the next true cold front comes through the end of next week. A couple things to keep in mind about the second front -- the GFS is showing a better push of colder air than the Euro, but this still will be the coldest air of the season so far. The next thing to keep an eye on is whether or not a noreaster type low forms off the midatlantic/new england coast. the 00z GFS showed this feature but the 06z does not. If this low develops the resulting northerly flow would likely keep things a little too mixed for widespread frost/freeze across NC. The upside would be this flow would likely usher in cooler temps aloft and a better shot at upslope snow showers for the northern mountains. At least things are starting to get a little more interesting.

[Wow]

Some true cross polar flow showing up on the GFS. No Atlantic blocking so it's progressive, but definitely going to feel more like winter.

 

[Isopycnic]

Some fool on facebook said this about southern New England... winter is a comin'

 

Kevin Wood I could see highs in the 30's to near 40 in the hills if things break right. Lows well down into 20's. And if things really really break right snow is possible. But for now just know it's going to get cold middle of next week and beyond

[dsaur]

Man, oh, man, it's sure nice to see the 0 line edging into Ga. on the Gfs.   And later, a huge, big honking cad high and a gulf low responding to it in the long range.  This map is so much better than a summer map, lol.  Why, doesn't Goofy throw up maps like this in July?  Because it wouldn't happen?  Hell, it ain't gonna happen now either, but it just makes you feel good   Come on, you know it does!!  Today's 12z just makes you feel good in a way no summer map could, lol, even though you know if won't happen that way. Go Big Goofy!!  T

[WxJordan]

Well, looks like we finally begin to cool things off a little bit for the upcoming week, and it will also be exciting across many locations in the southeast. First, this front will provide some cooler air to many areas for the weekend, with just a few showers in eastern areas from NC to GA.

 

Then, early next week, heavy rain is possible in eastern NC / eastern SC / and eastern GA with the next front coming through.

 

After this, many areas may see the first frost of the season outside of the mountains, where frost is possible this weekend. Wild week of weather coming up next week, should be fun!

[jburns]

Well, looks like we finally begin to cool things off a little bit for the upcoming week, and it will also be exciting across many locations in the southeast. First, this front will provide some cooler air to many areas for the weekend, with just a few showers in eastern areas from NC to GA.

 

Then, early next week, heavy rain is possible in eastern NC / eastern SC / and eastern GA with the next front coming through.

 

After this, many areas may see the first frost of the season outside of the mountains, where frost is possible this weekend. Wild week of weather coming up next week, should be fun!

 

To each his own but, a little rain down east and some frost in the west, doesn't meet my definition of wild weather.  I'll go with, seasonal.  

[Met1985]

Well, looks like we finally begin to cool things off a little bit for the upcoming week, and it will also be exciting across many locations in the southeast. First, this front will provide some cooler air to many areas for the weekend, with just a few showers in eastern areas from NC to GA.

 

Then, early next week, heavy rain is possible in eastern NC / eastern SC / and eastern GA with the next front coming through.

 

After this, many areas may see the first frost of the season outside of the mountains, where frost is possible this weekend. Wild week of weather coming up next week, should be fun!

Ya the Euro is back to really driving the cold further south as well. Going to be nice getting that chill in the air.

[metalicwx366]

Ya the Euro is back to really driving the cold further south as well. Going to be nice getting that chill in the air.

I finally see the cold in the 7 day forecast.

[Met1985]

Euro is very impressive. Brings down the trough sharper and further south. The GFS seems to have lost its bearings. Yesterday was showing the brunt of the cold air getting in here on the 23th but know shows the brunt of the cold air getting in here around the 25th.

[jburns]

Euro is very impressive. Brings down the trough sharper and further south. The GFS seems to have lost its bearings. Yesterday was showing the brunt of the cold air getting in here on the 23th but know shows the brunt of the cold air getting in here around the 25th.

 

 

It's getting ready for winter.

 

GFS shows severe cold arriving the first week of Jan.   second week,   fourth week of Jan,   second week of Feb,  around Mach 1, 2nd week of March

 

 

BULLETIN FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:  Early spring for Southeast.