October 2013 pattern and discussion

[FallsLake]

For you Georgia / SC folks check out the temps from the GFS for hour 39 and 60.

 

Select GFS and time 6z (should be latest as of posting)

 

http://www.twisterdata.com

[FallsLake]

NAO now looking to stay mostly negative over the next few weeks.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

[DCMetroWinston]

Some forecasts have highs in the 50s for the Triad on Wednesday.

[NCsandhills]

Shoot, even way down here it always-warm Fayetteville the forecast high is 62.  Pretty hardcore.  Can't wait.  However, the forecast is for tomorrow (Tuesday), not Wednesday...

 

whoa, we're fc to be cooler than GSO? ...and AVL...CLT, RDU...same fc high as Boone...am I trippin son??

[griteater]

12z GFS has the cold air damming configuration east of the Apps for a solid week beginning tonight

 

 

GSP on the coastal storm...

 

LOW PRES OVER THE SE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT
WILL PUSH ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. THE MAJORITY OF THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS KEEP THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM CONFINED TO
MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN CMC AND A FAIR CHUNK
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROW A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION WESTWARD INTO
THE PIEDMONT TUE NIGHT/WED. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION GIVEN THE HEALTHY PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR TODAY OF THE
WAVE THAT BECOMES THE COASTAL SYSTEM. DESPITE LEANING TOWARD THE
WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...THE BL TO 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN NRLY
ENOUGH AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN AND NOT
ALLOW MUCH OF ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WOULD BE IF ANY BANDED SHOWERS
COULD WRAP BACK INTO THE CLT AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A SMALLER THAN GUIDANCE DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TO THE OUTER BANKS ON
THU...MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO WRAP BACK WWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.
ANY ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ON THU AFTN...BUT LESS SO THAN ON WED.

[Met1985]

NAO now looking to stay mostly negative over the next few weeks.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Yep good signs from the NAO heading into the winter months. Know if we can just get the PNA to cooperate.

[Met1985]

12z GFS has the cold air damming configuration east of the Apps for a solid week beginning tonight

 

 

GSP on the coastal storm...

 

LOW PRES OVER THE SE COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT

WILL PUSH ATLANTIC AND TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INLAND ACROSS THE

COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. THE MAJORITY OF THE 12Z

MODEL RUNS KEEP THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM CONFINED TO

MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN CMC AND A FAIR CHUNK

OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROW A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION WESTWARD INTO

THE PIEDMONT TUE NIGHT/WED. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE

SOLUTION GIVEN THE HEALTHY PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR TODAY OF THE

WAVE THAT BECOMES THE COASTAL SYSTEM. DESPITE LEANING TOWARD THE

WETTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...THE BL TO 850 MB FLOW WILL REMAIN NRLY

ENOUGH AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM TO KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN AND NOT

ALLOW MUCH OF ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH

WED NIGHT. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WOULD BE IF ANY BANDED SHOWERS

COULD WRAP BACK INTO THE CLT AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO

FEATURE A SMALLER THAN GUIDANCE DIURNAL RANGE ON TEMPS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE COAST TO THE OUTER BANKS ON

THU...MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO WRAP BACK WWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT.

ANY ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE

TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ON THU AFTN...BUT LESS SO THAN ON WED.

Yep looks like a solid week of beautiful fall temps for most in the SE. A nice change from the past couple of weeks.

[DCMetroWinston]

Oh, if we can get this type of longterm cold air damning after Thanksgiving!

[Met1985]

Oh, if we can get this type of longterm cold air damning after Thanksgiving!

Meh Not a big fan of cold air damning here were I live but if we can get a pattern similar to this heading from December to January I think we can get a few good snowstorms around here. Looking forward to upslope snow starting sometime.

[eyewall]

You can bet there will be a coastal storm along with this CAD event. After all it is just about time for the Shakori Hills festival

[1300m]

You can bet there will be a coastal storm along with this CAD event. After all it is just about time for the Shakori Hills festival

 

If this were mid December, this would be a very interesting (although probably marginal) setup in NC. It would primarily depend on just how cold/dry the source region was, and how much was advected in on the cold front.

[Cold Rain]

Lol at the LR GFS mega trough. 850 0C line gets to the NC/SC boarder. It's not unrealistic, but it'll probably be replaced by a ridge tomorrow.

Also, lol at the NAM's and CMC's qpf maps. Why do they suck so bad?

[Met1985]

Lol at the LR GFS mega trough. 850 0C line gets to the NC/SC boarder. It's not unrealistic, but it'll probably be replaced by a ridge tomorrow.

Also, lol at the NAM's and CMC's qpf maps. Why do they suck so bad?

Ya Cold Rain you would think so but the LR GFS has been hammering away about a change after mid month and also a lot of other Mets of the board keep say around the 20th of this month things may start to really cool down. I can see this especially since it looks like the NAO is going to dip to negative and may stay there which is great looking going forward. Also to note the Siberian snow cover is doing great so far and looks to really expand the next week or do even further into North America. Just looking at the Euro you can see it is at LR but wow it is really packing a punch at the end of it run. It has been going back and forth from trough to a jumbled up mess of a pattern.

[Met1985]

Just took a peek at the GFS latest run and with a ridge out West and good blocking I can see something like that really happening but it is 300 hours away. Also just to note that would be a perfect set up for our first upslope snowfall for the mountains also. But I do really expect thing to start really cooling down after mid month but not sure if that will work. We really need the Pac to relax.

[FLweather]

As unrealistic as the GFS looks climo wise that would be about the time for many average first frost/freezes in the piedmont of NC. I guess that would be something to watch for over the next 10 days or so.

[Met1985]

18z develops a  trough in the East under 200 hours so I think this is really something that can be watched. I would like to see the Euro grab hold of this idea but like a said the GFS has been honking at this a few days know.

[FranknRaleigh]

Exactly the setup that gives piedmont NC some awful ice storms in Jan/Feb.

[FLweather]

Thought the 12z lr gfs was funny?  Here is something to laugh as well

 

  http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/f348.gif

 

Interesting though as least 3 members have some kind of tropical entity in the caribbean,GOM from what is currently positioned near the Cape Verde Islands.

 

Lol at the LR GFS mega trough. 850 0C line gets to the NC/SC boarder. It's not unrealistic, but it'll probably be replaced by a ridge tomorrow.

Also, lol at the NAM's and CMC's qpf maps. Why do they suck so bad?

[Cold Rain]

Ya Cold Rain you would think so but the LR GFS has been hammering away about a change after mid month and also a lot of other Mets of the board keep say around the 20th of this month things may start to really cool down. I can see this especially since it looks like the NAO is going to dip to negative and may stay there which is great looking going forward. Also to note the Siberian snow cover is doing great so far and looks to really expand the next week or do even further into North America. Just looking at the Euro you can see it is at LR but wow it is really packing a punch at the end of it run. It has been going back and forth from trough to a jumbled up mess of a pattern.

Yeah, climo-wise, the pattern fits. It's just always fascinating how the GFS shows these massive cool-downs in the LR, only to have them be either non-existent or heavily muted by the time the predicted date arrives. This is just a little prep for winter mode, I suppose.

[Cold Rain]

Thought the 12z lr gfs was funny? Here is something to laugh as well

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/f348.gif

Interesting though as least 3 members have some kind of tropical entity in the caribbean,GOM from what is currently positioned near the Cape Verde Islands.

Nice! I'd give that a little less than a 0% chance of verifying, given the way this season has gone.

[metalicwx366]

Also, lol at the NAM's and CMC's qpf maps. Why do they suck so bad?

It won't be long before a 84 NAM image is posted showing torching surface temps and marginal 850mb temps with a thread created for it. Also ready for Memphis, Birmingham, and Atlanta to be buried in a 20inch snowstorm shown on the DGEX.

[WxJordan]

NAO appears to be going negative, PNA appears to be going positive... Just too bad its October instead of December. But, we could get a nice cool down next week with temperatures struggling this week to make it to average for many locations.

[Met1985]

Yeah, climo-wise, the pattern fits. It's just always fascinating how the GFS shows these massive cool-downs in the LR, only to have them be either non-existent or heavily muted by the time the predicted date arrives. This is just a little prep for winter mode, I suppose.

Ya I generally do not jump on patterns this far out but the GFS as of late has been hounding away at this type of setup and also the GFS was the first model to jump on this cold front crossing the country rather than shooting up into Canada. I am hoping the update the GFS got this year pays off at least to do a better job in the 240 hour range.

[metalicwx366]

Ya I generally do not jump on patterns this far out but the GFS as of late has been hounding away at this type of setup and also the GFS was the first model to jump on this cold front crossing the country rather than shooting up into Canada. I am hoping the update the GFS got this year pays off at least to do a better job in the 240 hour range.

Maybe the GFS does better with winter patterns and winter storms than the BS it pulled this hurricane season with that update. Hopefully we don't have as many false alarms.

[Met1985]

Don't look know but the EURO is right on board with the GFS with a pretty big trough developing next week. Going to be some interesting weather coming up.

[Cold Rain]

Don't look know but the EURO is right on board with the GFS with a pretty big trough developing next week. Going to be some interesting weather coming up.

 

They both send another storm through the Lakes.  But they also develop a pretty decent -NAO too.  Well see how things shake out, but overall, the weather looks pretty variable over the next couple of weeks.

[FallsLake]

They both send another storm through the Lakes.  But they also develop a pretty decent -NAO too.  Well see how things shake out, but overall, the weather looks pretty variable over the next couple of weeks.

The 12z GFS does show the pattern reacting to the -NAO in the LR with a big push of cold air into the eastern us.

 

Just for laughs... look at day 16. This would be very impressive for October:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[WxJordan]

Slightly above average for the extended period. It will be an awesome weekend for sure.

What worries me is the chance of a powerful cold front next week. It could cause some very strong thunderstorms and is definitely something to watch. If the cold front is as powerful as modeled, it would bring the coolest air of the season.

[Cold Rain]

Slightly above average for the extended period. It will be an awesome weekend for sure.

What worries me is the chance of a powerful cold front next week. It could cause some very strong thunderstorms and is definitely something to watch. If the cold front is as powerful as modeled, it would bring the coolest air of the season.

Cold front looks strong, but it looks like another situation where the main dynamics head off well to the north and west, which is probably a good thing. I agree that the extended looks a little above average. The other day, the extended looked colder, at least on the flip-flopper GFS.

[WxJordan]

Cold front looks strong, but it looks like another situation where the main dynamics head off well to the north and west, which is probably a good thing. I agree that the extended looks a little above average. The other day, the extended looked colder, at least on the flip-flopper GFS.

That would be the ideal situation, as shown in the EURO model with a weaker overall system. The 12z GFS was very strong with the front passing through with the trough tipping negative as it moved through the eastern United States. If everything materializes like the GFS shows (which it more than likely won't), then late next week will be chilly, but for now, cool mornings warm afternoons, slightly above average temperatures. A boring weather pattern for sure.