Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I will say that the GFS saw the wet pattern way out (past 10 days); and did not waver much. Once the euro caught on to the pattern it did present the better solution. I hear ya, but I'm going with Grit and say: ECMFWFCMF 1, GFS 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Weekend looking awfully nice, FWIW...lot of sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 Weekend looking awfully nice, FWIW...lot of sunshine I'm in favor of dry/nonstormy until after the leaves peak as it would almost certainly mean a better and longer peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Nice early fall look ahead ... maybe a warm November will reverse after Turkey Day and get us some cold when real winter gets here (been my histotic experience, anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Nice early fall look ahead ... maybe a warm November will reverse after Turkey Day and get us some cold when real winter gets here (been my histotic experience, anyway). 814temp.new.gif Scary looking at that image, but as you state I think this is what we need to set us up for a late November switch to a cold pattern. NAO has gone positive also supporting the warm prediction. Good thing about this time of year, a warm pattern will feel good; not hot as if this would have happened a month back, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 A +NAO, +AO, and -PNA coming up. Hopefully the pattern reverses as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Nice early fall look ahead ... maybe a warm November will reverse after Turkey Day and get us some cold when real winter gets here (been my histotic experience, anyway). 814temp.new.gif maybe this is a good sign. warm november and cold most of the winter. lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Those forecast are notoriously wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The pattern looks to be variable over the next couple of weeks, with a bias toward the warmer side. There are a couple of opportunities for rain: the first is this weekend, and the next (according to the GFS/CMC) is in 8-10 days. The Euro looks dry for the second event. There is a persistent SE/South Central ridge through the period. Regarding the longer range, I'm not sure I buy into the routing for warm now so that it gets cold by December. I don't know that what it does now has any bearing on what happens at the end of November. I understand the notion of wanting to get the warm out of the way now, but does the atmosphere really work that way? Statistically, if we have a warm early/mid November, does that lead to a cold December? And what about January and February? I honestly don't know. Last year, and the year before, we locked into a warm pattern that repeated, without much of a break, through the winter. The year before, we locked into a colder pattern that did the same thing. I know we tend to think that the pattern oscillates between warm/cold with a frequency of 2-6 weeks, but I'm not sure that's been true lately. The bottom line for me is I don't necessarily carry any hope that having a warmer pattern now gives us a better chance for cold later. Still, that said, since we're going to likely be a bit above average, I'm glad it's still Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I don't think it works that way either CR. Last year it was a cold end to October and cold November then it stayed warm until March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Looks like Halloween will be dry for most of us. Certainly welcome news for the kiddies. Not so for east TN. NWS mentioning isolated supercells. Models vary on the timing but the line looks to hit us between about 4 and 10pm. Not sure if the kids will be on the streets or in the mall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Not so for east TN. NWS mentioning isolated supercells. Models vary on the timing but the line looks to hit us between about 4 and 10pm. Not sure if the kids will be on the streets or in the mall at this point. Yeah, that's unfortunate for you guys. A couple years ago we got rained out. I took my son to the mall and got there early. By the time we left, it was a complete zoo. You could hardly even walk around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 I don't think it works that way either CR. Last year it was a cold end to October and cold November then it stayed warm until March. Well the theory would support what you said; cold November ---warm winter. (but) I'm with you guys by saying there's no proof of a correlation. If it was that simple others would have jumped on this a long ways back. But I will say from years of looking at the pattern (as a non-meteorologist), the winter pattern does seem to swing back and forth between warm to cold patterns ----Like a see-saw. Warm winters will have cold periods and cold winters will have warm periods. But this see-saw doesn't swing equally; there's usually one kid (NAO, PNA, AO) that's fatter than the other. So there's still swings back and forth but there's the other variable of how much one swing dominates the other. So only talking about swings, if we are swinging to the warm side now; we should swing to the cold side by the start of December. Our winter period is basically from early December to early March. If we can start cold, statistically we have a better chance of ending cold (if the swings are equal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like most of the trick or treaters will get a break and miss the rain for Halloween evening; however, numerous showers and storms will be in northwest Georgia and eastern Tennessee through the evening and overnight hours. There is a chance of scattered supercells that could cause some problems Halloween evening. This will be something to monitor Wednesday with model runs. I sure hope that the models show that the CAPE will be low; however, the 850 mb shear is modeled to be very high. This can cause supercells to develop. The heaviest rain will push into the mountains overnight, and now the models want to dissipate the rain as it progresses through North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. This will be an interesting trend to watch the next couple of model runs. The coastal locations could then get hit Friday Night into Saturday as another area of upper level voriticty rotates around the base of the trough, so a lot to watch the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like most of the trick or treaters will get a break and miss the rain for Halloween evening; however, numerous showers and storms will be in northwest Georgia and eastern Tennessee through the evening and overnight hours. There is a chance of scattered supercells that could cause some problems Halloween evening. This will be something to monitor Wednesday with model runs. I sure hope that the models show that the CAPE will be low; however, the 850 mb shear is modeled to be very high. This can cause supercells to develop. The heaviest rain will push into the mountains overnight, and now the models want to dissipate the rain as it progresses through North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. This will be an interesting trend to watch the next couple of model runs. The coastal locations could then get hit Friday Night into Saturday as another area of upper level voriticty rotates around the base of the trough, so a lot to watch the next couple of days. Pretty much SOP for the models as events gets closer the rain disiapates as the fronts leave Mtns. If I get time this weekend I'll post some pics of Lake Lucas (One of 2 watersheds for Asheboro Municipality). You'll think I took the picture a couple of years ago in the dead of summer. Probably walk 1/4 way out from shoreline on dry ground. All droughts have their infant stages/genesis. Just hope this winter we can put a lid on this one over the next 90-120 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Well the theory would support what you said; cold November ---warm winter. (but) I'm with you guys by saying there's no proof of a correlation. If it was that simple others would have jumped on this a long ways back. But I will say from years of looking at the pattern (as a non-meteorologist), the winter pattern does seem to swing back and forth between warm to cold patterns ----Like a see-saw. Warm winters will have cold periods and cold winters will have warm periods. But this see-saw doesn't swing equally; there's usually one kid (NAO, PNA, AO) that's fatter than the other. So there's still swings back and forth but there's the other variable of how much one swing dominates the other. So only talking about swings, if we are swinging to the warm side now; we should swing to the cold side by the start of December. Our winter period is basically from early December to early March. If we can start cold, statistically we have a better chance of ending cold (if the swings are equal). I understand what you are saying.You are thinking if the pattern stays warm now, there will be a better chance of it swinging the other way as we get into the winter months. Unless the pattern swings one way and gets stuck. But even last year we had a few cold periods, the warm just dominated from December to March. Ended each of those months with +4 or higher I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I understand what you are saying.You are thinking if the pattern stays warm now, there will be a better chance of it swinging the other way as we get into the winter months. Unless the pattern swings one way and gets stuck. But even last year we had a few cold periods, the warm just dominated from December to March. Ended each of those months with +4 or higher I believe. It seems to get stuck more in December than in November. How many times have we started December warm and keep thinking a turn to cold air is just around the corner. We see phantom cold shots in the extended but they just keep getting pushed back or disappear. I could be totally off but I like the setup we're currently in. NAO in a positive mode for November(hopefully a swing to negative in early Dec) , northern hemisphere snow cover / sea ice looking good --helps AO, and as others have said the Pacific is not as bad as last year --maybe more positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I understand what you are saying.You are thinking if the pattern stays warm now, there will be a better chance of it swinging the other way as we get into the winter months. Unless the pattern swings one way and gets stuck. But even last year we had a few cold periods, the warm just dominated from December to March. Ended each of those months with +4 or higher I believe. It seems to get stuck more in December than in November. How many times have we started December warm and keep thinking a turn to cold air is just around the corner. We see phantom cold shots in the extended but they just keep getting pushed back or disappear. I could be totally off but I like the setup we're currently in. NAO in a positive mode for November(hopefully a swing to negative in early Dec) , northern hemisphere snow cover / sea ice looking good --helps AO, and as others have said the Pacific is not as bad as last year --maybe more positive PNA. I remember hearing a lot last year about it being like a rubber band, and that it had to snap back the other way eventually. In other words, if it is warmer than normal, it has to snap back to colder than normal down the road. But that never happened last winter. It just stayed warmer. And then in the 2011-2012 winter we had the cold, but no precip. Maybe this winter will be somewhere between the two and back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I remember hearing a lot last year about it being like a rubber band, and that it had to snap back the other way eventually. In other words, if it is warmer than normal, it has to snap back to colder than normal down the road. But that never happened last winter. It just stayed warmer. And then in the 2011-2012 winter we had the cold, but no precip. Maybe this winter will be somewhere between the two and back to normal. It snapped. Warm dry winter. Cool wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It snapped. Warm dry winter. Cool wet summer. Coldspring I think we got more snow in the spring then we did in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I'm reevaluating my outlook in the short to medium term. Moving to the pessimistic side. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Well, Meteostar is giving me .6 upcoming, and that's a piddling amount, but I sure hope I get all of it, lol. My track record down here over the last 7 years, or so, is fronts don't deliver. The season of my beloved gom low is soon to be here, and I hope for that elusive pattern change that gets me in the rain once again. Now, if a front could stall out over me, I'd be nice to them:) I long for a 3 day rain. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I remember hearing a lot last year about it being like a rubber band, and that it had to snap back the other way eventually. In other words, if it is warmer than normal, it has to snap back to colder than normal down the road. But that never happened last winter. It just stayed warmer. And then in the 2011-2012 winter we had the cold, but no precip. Maybe this winter will be somewhere between the two and back to normal. we actually had cold weather in the 11-12 winter ? Maybe in NC but certainly not in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Going to get very windy tonight. Wind advisory out for all the mountain counties for wind gust of 50 mph above 3500 feet. Also wow at the rain coming in also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Man there's currently a lot rain on radar over the Mississippi valley. Looks like close to a quarter of the country being affected. Selfishly it looks like most of central NC will stay dry tonight. Eastern Tenn -- SW through Alabama look to be the bull's-eye for the 6-8 pm timespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Man there's currently a lot rain on radar over the Mississippi valley. Looks like close to a quarter of the country being affected. Selfishly it looks like most of central NC will stay dry tonight. Eastern Tenn -- SW through Alabama look to be the bull's-eye for the 6-8 pm timespan. Yep looks like some beneficial rains coming. Hopefully dsaur rainshields broken so the poor fella can get some rain. Hows the foliage like down in Raleigh and eastern sections? After this storm and cool down this weekend leaves will be shot by this time next week here--- at peak or slightly past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Yep looks like some beneficial rains coming. Hopefully dsaur rainshields broken so the poor fella can get some rain. Hows the foliage like down in Raleigh and eastern sections? After this storm and cool down this weekend leaves will be shot by this time next week here--- at peak or slightly past. Still a lot of green and brown here, but the color is finally getting a bit more brilliant. I'm guessing peak in a couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Still a lot of green and brown here, but the color is finally getting a bit more brilliant. I'm guessing peak in a couple of weeks? Oh ok. I was jw because there is still a good difference between here and Durham that Ive noticed daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 It's peaking here in Hillsborough currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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