MDstorm Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Almost... looks like a small low that runs up the coast... no rain for us but Eastern Shore looks nasty Euro more generous with the precip for next weekend from DC north and eastward. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 00z NAM sounding at 15z at IAD and DCA are decent... 1000+ SBCAPE, 40kts 6km shear, 1km and 3km shear 200+ m2/s2 with a decent hodo and very low LCLs... could see some weak spinups in whatever storm develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Bullseye! (yes, that is a super tiny 15 right near DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Are you high? It's kind of nice... compared to, say, the Nicaraguan jungle. Not quite as warm, but more humid. It wasn't humid at all.. at least not down here. Had a nice breeze blowing all day and only reached the lower 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Bullseye! (yes, that is a super tiny 15 right near DCA) That's pretty impressive. Who knows maybe there will actually be a spinup somewhere locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I predict 12 tornado warnings and one report of low hanging scud confused as an ef3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I predict 12 tornado warnings and one report of low hanging scud confused as an ef3 I predict a tornado watch with one warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I predict a tornado watch with one warning Doubtful on the watch.. maybe NE of here but kinda doubtful there too. I'd guess a 2% somewhere over E PA/NJ maybe up into SNE, perhaps back to us but the timing seems off here. Guess we could slow it down a bit still but precip is already working into WV, so the midday arrival is probably pretty close. Could still get action then but not optimal and every little bit of help is needed heh. NAM does back precip in from the SE on Wed tho.. maybe we'll get some of that after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I predict a tornado watch with one warning I'm going with a pity meso discussion and no watch. 1 warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Doubtful on the watch.. maybe NE of here but kinda doubtful there too. I'd guess a 2% somewhere over E PA/NJ maybe up into SNE, perhaps back to us but the timing seems off here. Guess we could slow it down a bit still but precip is already working into WV, so the midday arrival is probably pretty close. Could still get action then but not optimal and every little bit of help is needed heh. NAM does back precip in from the SE on Wed tho.. maybe we'll get some of that after all. bastid great step-child of 1/25/00??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 bastid great step-child of 1/25/00??? high to the north keeping a storm from escaping might be a good sign for winter.. unless it's 90 degrees when it starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 high to the north keeping a storm from escaping might be a good sign for winter.. unless it's 90 degrees when it starts I thought the same thing sick minds think alike....well, sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 0z NAM and GFS agree on a general 3/4" qpf in the area for tomorrow (or should I say Round 1, hmmmm?) that doesn't happen very often http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 LOL at the GFS on 72 and 75..... torrential rains Wednesday evening and night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 LOL at the GFS on 72 and 75..... torrential rains Wednesday evening and night All the models have been moving that way; did you check out the 12Z Euro on Wunderground because it had it too with a slower evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 All the models have been moving that way; did you check out the 12Z Euro on Wunderground because it had it too with a slower evolution? I saw it... it just all looks weird... remnants of Karen I presume? Or its own new entity? GFS closing in on 2" like 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I saw it... it just all looks weird... remnants of Karen I presume? Or its own new entity? GFS closing in on 2" like 6 hrs 99 hrs. qpf totals off 0Z GFS....not bad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L p.s. Leesburg, when you wake up tomorrow morning, get some tissues ready before you click on that link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 99 hrs. qpf totals off 0Z GFS....not bad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L p.s. Leesburg, when you wake up tomorrow morning, get some tissues ready before you click on that link! 3"+... interesting... we need the rain, interesting evolution of it. Can we get some TS wind gusts to go with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty interesting, nice play by play warm-up for winter and yeah everything is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 All the models have been moving that way; did you check out the 12Z Euro on Wunderground because it had it too with a slower evolution? GFS (Wed/Thurs) vs. Euro (Sat/Sun). Let the games begin. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wet this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's nice to look at a radar with greens and yellows nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 99 hrs. qpf totals off 0Z GFS....not bad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=099ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_099_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L p.s. Leesburg, when you wake up tomorrow morning, get some tissues ready before you click on that link! Lol....6z Gfs already backtracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Drizzle already. Morning low at DCA around the normal high for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Lol....6z Gfs already backtracking Relax. Once the 12z GGEM comes out all will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Drizzle already. Morning low at DCA around the normal high for the day. "Horrid," "awful," "putrid," "terrible," "vile," "dreadful," no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Weather is a changing. A nice breeze, overcast, deer running around the yard, etc. Welcome back fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 MD issued... watch possible Prob of watch issuance is 60% Watches may be required by 13z or 14z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Nice little line pushing through Front Royal / Winchester...doesn't look like a lot of wind and certainly no lightning but rain seems nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.