Disc Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Loving this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Can only speak for my area but in the medium to long range models have shown wet only to back off as the time gets closer...don't recall it being the other way yet. Also not sure how normal this is in general...seems like the model recognizes the potential then obviously figures out the details later. This dry stretch rivals any of the past ones that I became famous for whining about years ago...honestly this may be the driest run since I moved to Leesburg in 04 I agree with what you said but I should have been clearer when I said long range models....I was referring to more the seasonal outlooks from the JAMSTEC & CFS2; I haven't seen the Euro monthlies or seasonal for our area proper so I don't know what it says; otoh, the models were showing heavy rain from this due to Karen and since that part has sort of fallen apart, it doesn't surprise me that the qpf has dropped so much to me, everything is falling in place "so far" with an 01/02 dry fall; if it wasn't for the dry air allowing night time lows to drop, that month would have scorched (not that there weren't other things to be more concerned about that month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Loving this weather. Are you high? It's kind of nice... compared to, say, the Nicaraguan jungle. Not quite as warm, but more humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 at least we have the honor of having the the warmest temps in the lower 48 along with FLA http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Slight risk added tomorrow NE MD up to western Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Models are pretty fast for tomorrow at this pt. Considering getting out the meh flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Models are pretty fast for tomorrow at this pt. Considering getting out the meh flag. at BWI, Euro a little better than a 1/2" of qpf, which is a little better than 0z fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 90 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Loving this weather. There's not enough hyperbole in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 My igloo is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 My igloo is melting. this time of year doesn't matter for you wait until winter when 750' asl makes all the difference between the cold rain I'll get and the mod snow you'll get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 at BWI, Euro a little better than a 1/2" of qpf, which is a little better than 0z fwiw dews are solid so we should get some rain but tropical moisture inflow is relatively minor at this pt. transitioning from a trop sys injecting itself into the conus trough to a 'strong' cold front rarely seems to give us super substantial rains. but 1/2" would be decent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 My a/c bill might be higher this month than July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 dews are solid so we should get some rain but tropical moisture inflow is relatively minor at this pt. transitioning from a trop sys injecting itself into the conus trough to a 'strong' cold front rarely seems to give us super substantial rains. but 1/2" would be decent.. the last one ended up over performing so maybe a general .75-1" if this does the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Absolute furnace outside. Had to go to Lowes today, so I walk in dripping wet with sweat and I see all the Christmas decorations on display. Only in the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 NAM still pretty early with the line. Still gives us some decent rain tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Over-under ...... 1/2 inch area wide. I'll go with the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 NAM still pretty early with the line. Still gives us some decent rain tho. 4km is NAM-wet. Around 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 18z NAM holds Karen remnants back like some of the models have done and sort of regenerates it off the SE coast maybe it'll come and get us after all if the block to the NE of us would relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 F this heat. Bring back fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 DCA got to 91 today. 35 on the year. One shy of avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Dulles missed by 1, but still 2 of 7 90+ in Oct all time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Dulles missed by 1, but still 2 of 7 90+ in Oct all time this year. Daily record at IAD today, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 18z GFS QPF looks like .5-.6 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 18z GFS QPF looks like .5-.6 area wide GFS looks like it wants to bring Karen's remnants back to us after 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 GFS looks like it wants to bring Karen's remnants back to us after 72 hrs Almost... looks like a small low that runs up the coast... no rain for us but Eastern Shore looks nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 F this heat. Bring back fall!agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 F this heat. Bring back fall! Amen. Our F prayers will be answered in about 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 0Z NAM says a general 3/4" cities N & W http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_039_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 0Z NAM says a general 3/4" cities N & W http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_039_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L It even clears precip out by end of rush hour per sim radar... pretty fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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