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October 2013 Obs/Disc.


thunderman

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What ya thinking for Monday afternoon?  Heavy chance of meh?

 

12z NAM is decent, but prob way overdone on SBCAPE... 12z GFS lil lower with SBCAPE but still 1000+

 

looks like there may be some risk for iso tornadoes/gusts mainly just east of the apps thru VA up into this area during the afternoon. 

 

post-1615-0-85080900-1381005379_thumb.pn

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I am really interested in having solar panels installed when I get a house...how many do you need to make it effective versus the initial up front cost is my main question.  How many do you have on your property?

We have a town home so we were limited to 27 panels. But are projected to generate 82% of our household power at peak season, summer. We were able to take advantages of several grants. One through Solarize Frederick, one through the stste ( subject to availibity) and a federal tax credit. It cut the cost of our system by about 45%, with a return on envestment of just 6 years in.

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NWS Sterling is part of a test bed for Emergency Response Meteorologist program.  This was one of their initiatives...it goes out to a lot of the OEM staff too and is quite beneficial.

Do you have a "public" link to where they publish these? I tried looking on their website earlier but couldn't find one.

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88F today.  I know it's probably been hotter before, but this is the worst stretch of October weather in my memory.  It's absolutely putrid.

terrible for October, but at least it's early in the month vs. the last week

which reminds me, end of October and early 1974 was probably more horrendous anomaly wise than this heat

temps made it into the low 80's in NOV; I was in high school in an old building (come to think of it, if it was new in 1974 it would be considered old now!) and they couldn't get the steam radiator heating system to shut off all the way so we were dying even with the windows open

as for this year, I just keep reminding myself 10/95 was +5 at BWI

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terrible for October, but at least it's early in the month vs. the last week

which reminds me, end of October and early 1974 was probably more horrendous anomaly wise than this heat

temps made it into the low 80's in NOV; I was in high school in an old building (come to think of it, if it was new in 1974 it would be considered old now!) and they couldn't get the steam radiator heating system to shut off all the way so we were dying even with the windows open

as for this year, I just keep reminding myself 10/95 was +5 at BWI

 

Sounds bad.  Fortunately, I was too young to remember 1974.

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If several of the long range models are correct, our nemesis this winter will be qpf more than temps or storm tracks.

Can only speak for my area but in the medium to long range models have shown wet only to back off as the time gets closer...don't recall it being the other way yet. Also not sure how normal this is in general...seems like the model recognizes the potential then obviously figures out the details later. This dry stretch rivals any of the past ones that I became famous for whining about years ago...honestly this may be the driest run since I moved to Leesburg in 04

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