MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Winds staying up less of a surprise than them going totally calm at IAD. The eastward extension of the warning was dumb IMO but LWX sucks when it comes to watches and warnings and predicting DC temps so whatever. I'm guessing what happens is that IAD gets some cold drainage, and it sets up an inversion where the winds decouple and go calm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Oh, I am. Haha good. Make sure to include your gridded verification stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Haha good. Make sure to include your gridded verification stats!My verification stats on hypersensitivity of NWS employees is about 90%. I'll send you my spreadsheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 My verification stats on hypersensitivity of NWS employees is about 90%. I'll send you my spreadsheet. Sorry, wrong answer. Congress wont get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm guessing what happens is that IAD gets some cold drainage, and it sets up an inversion where the winds decouple and go calm at the surface. IAD elevation.JPG Makes sense to me. I figured they were a lock but 29 beat my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Sorry, wrong answer. Congress wont get that.I don't really think they suck for issuing a freeze warning further east. I'm sure it verified somewhere. I will issue a written apology for msg board antics. Please don't hate me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Not sure what this 80F for Halloween talk is about. Certainly above normal and 70F is possible, but going to be cloudy and rainy most likely either way. The GFS yesterday had +14C 850s in the afternoon and the MOS was way above average at D7, so that's where the warm talk came from. I think 80 was just something that somebody threw out there for fun. The Euro and GFS are handling the plains/midwest storm a lot differently, which will affect our weather around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I don't really think they suck for issuing a freeze warning further east. I'm sure it verified somewhere. I will issue a written apology for msg board antics. Please don't hate me. No really, if you have a complaint...issue it. Make sure you can back it up with verification stats tho. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I don't really think they suck for issuing a freeze warning further east. I'm sure it verified somewhere. I will issue a written apology for msg board antics. Please don't hate me. Ft. Meade got down to 30. Belvoir was 28, lower than IAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 The GFS yesterday had +14C 850s in the afternoon and the MOS was way above average at D7, so that's where the warm talk came from. I think 80 was just something that somebody threw out there for fun. The Euro and GFS are handling the plains/midwest storm a lot differently, which will affect our weather around then. Yes they are. If the 0z Euro verified, I could see November 1st being near 80F south of DC if skies were sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 No really, if you have a complaint...issue it. Make sure you can back it up with verification stats tho. That's all I'm saying. I don't. I figured some spots east of the warning would hit freezing too. Though DC prob could have been excluded.. might as well get it out of the way for the season tho. However, the sensitivity thing is perhaps something the org should work on. Y'all are like the best fed organization but seem to freak out whenever anyone says anything that might be slightly negative about forecasts. I had a LWX forecaster yell at me on Twitter for complaining their svr polys were too big. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I don't. I figured some spots east of the warning would hit freezing too. Though DC prob could have been excluded.. might as well get it out of the way for the season tho. However, the sensitivity thing is perhaps something the org should work on. Y'all are like the best fed organization but seem to freak out whenever anyone says anything that might be slightly negative about forecasts. Nope not overly sensitive. We'd just like to see some stats to back up disparaging blanket statements. It's only fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 32.1* for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Nope not overly sensitive. We'd just like to see some stats to back up disparaging blanket statements. It's only fair.I'm assuming you know how to look at an ob map but maybe sequestration hit that training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'm assuming you know how to look at an ob map but maybe sequestration hit that training. I'll wait for the BOIverify numbers thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 I'll wait for the BOIverify numbers thanks. On a serious note if you're not too offended to answer.. how do you verify a freeze warning? One spot in the county? Multiple? Does close count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 On a serious note if you're not too offended to answer.. how do you verify a freeze warning? One spot in the county? Multiple? Does close count? You're the one who seems offended. I'm just asking for you to be reasonable. Anyway, freeze warnings are verified with a discernible avg throughout the county. Many sources are used and a gridded weighting scheme is used for final verification of official fcsts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You're the one who seems offended. I'm just asking for you to be reasonable. Anyway, freeze warnings are verified with a discernible avg throughout the county. Many sources are used and a gridded weighting scheme is used for final verification of official fcsts. Not really offended.. just wx board 'outrage.' They're just temperatures... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 : MAX MIN :ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN : : FIRST-ORDER AND CLIMATE SITES BWI : BALT-WASH MARSHALL : 53 / 36 / 0.00 CHO : CHARLOTTESVILLE APT : 53 / 31 / 0.00 DCA : REAGAN NATL AIRPORT : 54 / 38 / 0.00 DMH : BALTIMORE INR HARBOR: 55 / 40 / 0.00 HGR : HAGERSTOWN RGNL APT : 48 / 35 / 0.00 IAD : DULLES INTL AIRPORT : 52 / 29 / 0.00 MRB : EASTERN WV RGNL APT : 49 / 29 / 0.00 : : CLIMATE AND COOP NETWORK AUTOMATED SITES CHAV2: MONTICELLO CRN : 50 / 34 / 0.00 RSTM2: REISTERSTOWN COOP : 48 / 34 / 0.00 : : AWOS AND MILITARY SITES :/PRECIP DATA MAY BE INCOMPLETE OR UNAVAILABLE/ 2W6 : ST MARYS CO RGNL APT: 52 / 32 / ADW : ANDREWS AFB : 53 / 38 / 0.00 CBE : CUMBERLAND RGNL APT : 45 / 36 / CGS : COLLEGE PARK AIRPORT: 53 / 34 / CJR : CULPEPER RGNL APT : 57 / 30 / DAA : DAVISON ARMY AIRFLD : 53 / 28 / 0.00 DMW : CARROLL CO RGNL APT : 48 / 36 / EZF : SHANNON APT/FREDBURG: 53 / 31 / 0.01 FDK : FREDERICK MUN APT : 50 / 34 / FME : TIPTON APT/FT MEADE : 54 / 30 / GAI : GAITHERSBURG AIRPORT: 48 / 32 / 0.00 HEF : MANASSAS RGNL APT : 54 / 28 / M HWY : WARRENTON-FAUQUIER : 57 / 27 / 0.00 JYO : LEESBURG EXEC APT : 52 / 36 / LUA : LURAY CAVERNS APT : 54 / 32 / NAK : ANNAPOLIS NAVAL ACAD: 52 / 38 / 0.00 NHK : PATUXENT RIVER NAS : 55 / 34 / 0.00 NUI : WEBSTER NAVAL APT : 55 / 36 / 0.00 NYG : QUANTICO MARINE BASE: 54 / 33 / 0.00 OKV : WINCHESTER RGNL APT : 50 / 32 / 0.00 OMH : ORANGE CO AIRPORT : 59 / 32 / RMN : STAFFORD RGNL APT : 53 / 28 / 0.00 SHD : SHENANDOAH RGNL APT : 48 / 25 / 0.00 W99 : GRANT COUNTY APT : 51 / 30 / 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 You're the one who seems offended. I'm just asking for you to be reasonable. Anyway, freeze warnings are verified with a discernible avg throughout the county. Many sources are used and a gridded weighting scheme is used for final verification of official fcsts. when can you verify to us that the freeze warning was justifiable for the LWX area? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 when can you verify to us that the freeze warning was justifiable for the LWX area? thanks. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Big fail for JYO. Would have figured they'd get a 22 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 What a grab-bag of temperatures you posted there, MNTransplant. 28F at Manassas but 35F at Hagerstown? Obviously little local effects like IAD's cold bowl and calm winds were what made the difference last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 What? sorry, guess i wasn't speaking english. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 also its freaking cold out with the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 My low was 36 and my peppers survived. I will cover them tonight to keep them going another week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 also its freaking cold out with the wind cold wind is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 sorry, guess i wasn't speaking english. Guess not. You want me to second guess a warning issued by an LWX forecaster? Sorry, not gonna do it. I wasn't there. Yeah I imagine some counties will not verify in their CWFA. That doesn't mean the warning was unjustified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yes they are. If the 0z Euro verified, I could see November 1st being near 80F south of DC if skies were sunny. I brought up 80 in jest....it appears that it will be warmer so I ran with it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 What a grab-bag of temperatures you posted there, MNTransplant. 28F at Manassas but 35F at Hagerstown? Obviously little local effects like IAD's cold bowl and calm winds were what made the difference last night. my 187 elevation finally paid off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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