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October 2013 Obs/Disc.


thunderman

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Frost advisory here...I'm scared

 

I'm tired of this 'easing into winter' business. The raking is becoming unbearable. I too, am scared. On another note, NWS keeps slowly bumping up the forecast for overnight lows Thur/Fri. Not that I'm complaining, but I think in some of the NW Burbs it's a mistake. People see '39' and don't think about covering plants.  

 

Not that I'm pro-plant or anything, I'm mostly indifferent when they aren't throwing leaves all over the place.

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Watching that 850 0c line ;)

Guess it will be a good start next week to see if GFS or NAM is too cold with temps and how MOS does... so we can get an early start as to which run to believe in

It's a trick - that's just what the models want you to do. It's precisely why if you don't look at them for a few days they immediately show a monster at 200+ hours. They lure you in with their siren song.

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So the snow word makes it into NWS Blacksburg's forecast discussion......

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...

MILDER MON NIGHT WITH SW FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY TUES WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURIGN
THE DAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE REGARDING DEPTH OF MOISTURE
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH DOWNSLOPE ON TUES...AND WHILE GENERALLY
DISCOUNTING THE WETTER 12Z NAM...THERE ARE JUST ENOUGH SREF MEMBERS
WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST LATE TUES
AND TUES EVENING TO WARRANT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS TO LOW CHC
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS
SOUTHEAST. EVEN IN WEST ANY PRECIP WILL ONLY RESULT IN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...BUT KEEPING POPS BELOW THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW
SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE A VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE AND COULD BE
THAT MANY AREAS ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS.

COOL DOWN AGAIN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR HIGHS TUES WITH INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION THOUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
CLEARING IF ANY TUES NIGHT BEFORE REINFORCING CLIPPER ARRIVES BY WED
MORNING WITH STRONGER COLD ADVECTION...GUSTIER WINDS...AND WHAT
LOOKS TO ME TO BE EVEN BETTER CHC OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AREAS. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS CLIPPER THEN IS COLD ENOUGH TO
TURN SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM WINTERPLACE TO WRN GREENBRIER...AND ALSO HIGHEST PEAKS OF FAR
SW VA. DAYTIME INSOLATION SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING FROM
STICKING...BUT BY LATE IN DAY AND WED EVENING IS BEST CHANCE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO HIGHEST ELEVATION WESTERN SLOPES. THIS
CLIPPER USHERS IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.


GENERALLY WENT WITH COOLER GUIDANCE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLIPPER
DURING THE COLD ADVECTION PERIODS. ALSO FASTER SOLUTIONS MOST LIKELY
TO VERIFY BEST IN THIS SITUATION...AND OF 12Z MODELS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN NAM.

&&

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