Bob Chill Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 CMC and EURO look cool 9 to 10 days out... ridge in the west and trough in the east as well GFS pokes the ridge between the hudson and aleution vortices all the way into the arctic circle. Decent -nao placement as well. Even hints at letting some energy slide under it. Not a perfect split flow or anything but i would be on fire if I saw this in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Discuss Freeze contest over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Discuss Freeze contest over 1-3" for the 'burbs, drizzle for DCA. Think most everyone outside of DC does get a freeze before the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 1-3" for the 'burbs, drizzle for DCA. Think most everyone outside of DC does get a freeze before the end of October. I'm thinkin the same on the freeze. GFS hinted at good cool shot post mid month about 2 weeks ago but then backed off during the heatwave. PNA tooks it's good ole time to relax but I think there's consensus that the lw pattern over the US is going to flip opposites. Pretty fat surface high depicted on the gfs. We'll need that + calm winds + clear skies to get BWI. I think IAD is close to a lock. DCA will obviously need 2 pattern flips after to get it taken care of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Today is like a 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Discuss discuss.JPG Freeze contest over discuss1.JPG Chilly. Reality is that we just have to fight through cold shots between now and the end of November because they're more of an annoyance (IMO) than anything. And if you add rain to the mix...urgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Chilly. Reality is that we just have to fight through cold shots between now and the end of November because they're more of an annoyance (IMO) than anything. And if you add rain to the mix...urgh. This. Ian, today is more like a 15. Just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Saw a sizeable fireball in the sky driving from New Windsor to Westminster in Carroll County around 8:20 - 8:30. Was about 70 degree angle traveling SE to NW. Pretty cool to witness. Like to report a VERY LARGE burning orb high in the sky that is lighting up the entire area, first visible around noon today thru the high clouds and fog and seems to be drifting slowly to the west...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 this blast looks a bit early, October 29 is still 2 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 It was a perfect day to get stuff done outside. Which I did. Day two of drying out as well. Ground soaked things up well but still a bit mushy in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 12z Euro apparently still shows the big cold shot next week and DT is honking on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 12z Euro apparently still shows the big cold shot next week and DT is honking on Facebook. Is there an ******ALEET************ yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GFS backing off cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GFS backing off cold.... might not be cold cold but it will cool off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 might not be cold cold but it will cool off Brief but yeah cooler...I'm worried my freeze guess for iad is too early now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 GFS backing off cold.... Now that's a truly stunning development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Brief but yeah cooler...I'm worried my freeze guess foriad is too early now Setup is definitely still there for IAD. Just need one good radiational cooling night. Surface high is in a good spot. I have a hunch that just like with the gfs in late sept early oct breaking down the -pna too quickly that it's breaking down the +pna too quickly. Get a good vort turning north of the great lakes and it can be stubborn. Some pretty nice blocking wobbling all over greenland. Much to be resolved. Coolest air of the year is a lock but that's supposed to happen now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 might not be cold cold but it will cool off Chill...it's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 DCA hits 80 tomorrow....first call What was your second call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 What was your second call? To SNE to get their advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 To SNE to get their advice Good idea. You certainly wouldn't find it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 All indications still show it looking a bit nippy in the extended range. Big ridge on the West Coast. If this were winter, I think we'd all be really interested in what the next couple weeks could bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 All indications still show it looking a bit nippy in the extended range. Big ridge on the West Coast. If this were winter, I think we'd all be really interested in what the next couple weeks could bring. I heard it through the grapevine that things should be cool through mid Nov so a nice stretch of at or below temps would be nice for a change. When was our last neg departure month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I heard it through the grapevine that things should be cool through mid Nov so a nice stretch of at or below temps would be nice for a change. When was our last neg departure month? Ahhh...did your "source" tell you that? I honestly don't know when our last negative departure month was, nor would I know where to find such info. Which just goes to show you how sad it is that only you and I are commenting on actual weather right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 I heard it through the grapevine that things should be cool through mid Nov so a nice stretch of at or below temps would be nice for a change. When was our last neg departure month? September was below normal at BWI and IAD and just above normal at DCA. August was below normal at all 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 FYI... www.instantweathermaps.com now has free Euro maps similar to what used to be shown on Raleigh's site (e.g., 24hr increments). Not as pretty, but functional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 FYI... www.instantweathermaps.com now has free Euro maps similar to what used to be shown on Raleigh's site (e.g., 24hr increments). Not as pretty, but functional. Very helpful, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 drizzle....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 Cold front with a line of showers incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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