mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Until the Euro is dry I'm in tonight's NAM totals look like today's Euro http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I had to issue a Flying Empty Trash Can Warning. 1.1" total and it was rockin' around 11:30am with multiple gusts to 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I'm really not liking how this storm just sits off the coast. Tidal flooding could become an issue in SE VA and NE NC. I'm surprised there isn't more talk about it. It's certainly more of a threat than Karen ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I'm really not liking how this storm just sits off the coast. Tidal flooding could become an issue in SE VA and NE NC. I'm surprised there isn't more talk about it. It's certainly more of a threat than Karen ever was. usually, folks down your way have their own thread in the MA forum There are probably more discussions in that thread (assuming there is an active thread from your area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z GFS is really wet for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 usually, folks down your way have their own thread in the MA forum There are probably more discussions in that thread (assuming there is an active thread from your area) haha i think they all went into hibernation after last winter 00z GFS is really wet for you guys We do need the rain but not the winds. When Ida reformed off the coast as a nor'easter it ended up flooding nearly as bad as Isabel because it just sat there with a strong pressure gradient. Thankfully this is much weaker but if it sits there long enough the water will slowly pile up. Kind of funny that the NWA conference happens to start on Sunday in Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 00z GFS is really wet for you guys Very sharp cutoff west of BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Squeak squeak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro destroys us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Euro destroys us lol Rains on us for about 3 straight days. I'm not sure what totals are, but they look hefty. 6z GFS starts about the same time (Wednesday night), but looks a fair bit lighter in totals...0.75-1.5" for all of us. Lots more towards OC, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 6Z RGEM really impressive http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 this starts tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 days and days of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Approx. 00z Euro totals for you guys 3"+ from Richmond, VA east 3"+ from Washington DC south and east 2-3" from Ocean City, MD to VA beach Philly - Ocean City, MD 1.75"-2.50" Sharp cut off west of Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 days and days of rain unless you live west of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 this starts tomorrow? I believe Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 grass seed time I don't know why I spread it as much as I hate mowing grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 this starts tomorrow? Between 2AM and 2PM Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Between 2AM and 2PM Thursday. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 And 12z NAM is going to be a miss Most of the rain RIC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 And 12z NAM is going to be a miss Most of the rain RIC south tries to work in at the end but meh #InEuroWeTrust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 tries to work in at the end but meh nam_total_precip_se_29.png #InEuroWeTrust Plenty of time for the NAM to trend northwest and come into line with the good models...only to overdo the QPF by a factor of five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 And 12z NAM is going to be a miss Most of the rain RIC south NAM being the NAM SREFs shows a decent hit with bulk still south of us.....but we all know what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Eastern Shore and SE VA get smoked on 12z GFS Total QPF through 51 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_051_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 NAM being the NAM SREFs shows a decent hit with bulk still south of us.....but we all know what that means The 03Z sref members were all over the place in terms of how much rain we might get. Lot's of room still for anything from a prolonged period of drizzle to the euro solution. Personally, I favor something in between and am glad it's not a winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Do these run to run model swings really surprise anyone? It will be one of those "it wont act like anything shown" storms. This storm will be a total nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 The 03Z sref members were all over the place in terms of how much rain we might get. Lot's of room still for anything from a prolonged period of drizzle to the euro solution. Personally, I favor something in between and am glad it's not a winter forecast. Oct_9_sref.png Wes, I was referring to the 9Z 24-hr. ensemble forecasts which had just come out prior to my post idk what those individual members showed but I agree with you, if this was winter, it would be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Wes, I was referring to the 9Z 24-hr. ensemble forecasts which had just come out prior to my post idk what those individual members showed but I agree with you, if this was winter, it would be ugly If this were winter, the low would be tracking west of Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 nice gradient on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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