EasternUSWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 CMC looks like euro of 12Z. Looks like a general 1-3" with local amounts up to 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 1-3" looks like a safe bet area wide?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 My point and click forecast has rain likely mainly after midnight - looks to be here well earlier than that based on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 11:54 AM, Kmlwx said: My point and click forecast has rain likely mainly after midnight - looks to be here well earlier than that based on radar. Yeah, just saw that. Lower eastern shore just getting in on the rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:16 AM, Ian said: Next run it's going to give us 87" of snow. Euro crushes us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 The 03Z sref really is pretty wet with a median for dca of 1.77 and a mean of 1.70". The number of .25" runs has dropped off considerably and he middle of the road solutions give at least 1". The euro QPF shown there looks odd that there isn't more rain to the east with the surface low right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 12:46 PM, usedtobe said: The 03Z sref really is pretty wet with a median for dca of 1.77 and a mean of 1.70". The number of .25" runs has dropped off considerably and he middle of the road solutions give at least 1". The euro QPF shown there looks odd that there isn't more rain to the east with the surface low right on the coast. He got you, Wes. Pretty sure that's an old snowfall map from one of the recent winter storms that didn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 12:54 PM, MN Transplant said: He got you, Wes. Pretty sure that's an old snowfall map from one of the recent winter storms that didn't pan out. That makes sense. I don't see the Euro QPF which makes me gullible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 12:54 PM, MN Transplant said: He got you, Wes. Pretty sure that's an old snowfall map from one of the recent winter storms that didn't pan out. On 10/9/2013 at 12:57 PM, usedtobe said: That makes sense. I don't see the Euro QPF which makes me gullible. That was an early Euro clown map from Sandy. Those things were absolutely hilarious...but a lot of fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 00z Euro was 2-3" area wide with 3-4" from St. Mary's Co. down to Norfolk. Precip. starts in DC at 8PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 12:36 PM, mitchnick said: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Looking at that and radar, I can almost imagine it's a wintertime Miller B about to blast us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 1:09 PM, wxmeddler said: 00z Euro was 2-3" area wide with 3-4" from St. Mary's Co. down to Norfolk. Precip. starts in DC at 8PM tonight. Damn Norfolk stealing the QPF But looking at radar... 00z EURO makes sense the most... its also been very steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 1:28 PM, WxUSAF said: Looking at that and radar, I can almost imagine it's a wintertime Miller B about to blast us. you mean it isn't???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 all I can say is that I'm just glad as he!! for the upcoming winter that the drought looks to be busted starting in October yeah, it could get dry again, but the rain a few days ago over performed just like the front a week before that and now this the worm has turned...I feel it in my old bones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 12z NAM has heavy rain moving in by 8pm into DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 1:54 PM, yoda said: 12z NAM has heavy rain moving in by 8pm into DCA winter practice-- band sits over us. thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 1:49 PM, mitchnick said: all I can say is that I'm just glad as he!! for the upcoming winter that the drought looks to be busted starting in October yeah, it could get dry again, but the rain a few days ago over performed just like the front a week before that and now this the worm has turned...I feel it in my old bones I only hope that the worm didn't turn too early. I can only imagine the anguish around here if the worm turns again around mid-December and shuts us out snowwise lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Looks like 12z NAM has us well over an inch (more like 1.5-2 even) by 9z tomorrow. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 1:56 PM, Ian said: winter practice-- band sits over us. thundersnow! nam_namer_018_sim_radar.gif Do we use the typical NAM correction and divide by 2 or 1.5 or believe it since the Euro is really heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:01 PM, usedtobe said: Do we use the typical NAM correction and divide by 2 or 1.5 or believe it since the Euro is really heavy? we multiply by 2 to adjust for the NAM's apparent error, save the maps, and post them in the future as having actually happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:00 PM, Kmlwx said: Looks like 12z NAM has us well over an inch (more like 1.5-2 even) by 9z tomorrow. Impressive. Actually 2"+ by 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:04 PM, yoda said: Actually 2"+ by 09z Thunderrain maybe!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:06 PM, Kmlwx said: Thunderrain maybe!!!!!!!!!! now you're taking this thing to far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:06 PM, Kmlwx said: Thunderrain maybe!!!!!!!!!! Do we get any thunderstorms in this type of set up anyway? I could see some localized areas getting over 3+" by rush hour tomorrow if the sim radar is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 09-10 winter FTW -- in between EZF and DCA and Warrenton looks to be the bullseye approaching 3" by 21z THUR http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:01 PM, usedtobe said: Do we use the typical NAM correction and divide by 2 or 1.5 or believe it since the Euro is really heavy?It's hard to ever believe the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 On 10/9/2013 at 2:09 PM, Ian said: It's hard to ever believe the NAM. 12z NAM correlates to the 00z EURO total QPF pretty well though in our area... so... I am invoking the EE rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 It's odd how the NAM has a very sharp N cutoff and the Euro totally disregards it and brings 2"+ into NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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