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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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in 1979 we got both snow and heat and the winter suched...I'm not expecting a great winter...If the second half of December is good and we get some more snow in February I'll be fine with that...the winter of 1961-62 was like that......

2011 had heat and snow...Columbus day was near 90 and we had snow 10/29 as you remember...awful winter followed...so maybe we want just heat?  LOL

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they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer.    (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance)

 

 

they basically did the same thing last week for this week...highs were in the 70-75 range and then look what happened. They will jump onboard sometime Monday/Tuesday after the Karen waste passes

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Kind of a neat little scenario showing up on the 00z NAM. It shows moisture coming in off the Atlantic and up the western side of the ridge very near the east coast along with the front still to our west

 

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

This looks like the Frontal Boundary from July 1st, but it's cooler and bursting with moisture on the eastern side. 

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Anyone here want to leave their guess as to which October day is the first with a mean that  'equals' or comes in 'below' what it is suppose to be for that day.    To me it seems a below normal mean this month may take till after the 21st. !   850mb's  stay above  the usual 6-9C for this whole period maybe!

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Euro has about .5 for early next week, then backs a costal storm into the area Thursday/Friday. Then we cool off by next Monday

 

 

looks like the euro has overn inch with this late week feature.  GFS brings the ULL through with some tropical moisture mon - wed but no costal like the euro thu/fri.

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its not until hr 220 it lifts north from mid-atlantic and we get in on the rain. def 1+ of rain, but this is way out in clown range. Looks like we get back to normal temps also

 

The huge block centered over the NE and Canada really slows the northward progress to a crawl. An onshore

flow looks like a good bet with the high moving off the New England Coast.

 

 

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