forkyfork Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Warm November=Warm First Half of Winter. Not want you want for snow mode.november 2009 torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 85.2F here so far, just jumped out of the pool. Beautiful October weather. I'm all aboard the torch train for this month. Haha its still open?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 november 2009 torched Agreeded ocean temps were above normal going into that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Haha its still open?? Upton doesn't seem to think so. Going with low 70s next Wed-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Upton doesn't seem to think so. Going with low 70s next Wed-Fri I agree with them but perhaps a tad warmer than that. Euro has been out to lunch more than it hasn't over the last several weeks/months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Upton doesn't seem to think so. Going with low 70s next Wed-Fri I am not sure if the shutdown has impacted them at all, there forcasts seem to be somewhat off/slow since it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Upton doesn't seem to think so. Going with low 70s next Wed-Fri they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer. (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 november 2009 torched Strong West Nino. An exception on that month/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Upton doesn't seem to think so. Going with low 70s next Wed-FriYeah the ULL looks to hang around for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Haha its still open?? Yep held out on closing knowing this torch was coming; latest I've ever swam around here. Looking at the ECMWF for the next 10 days, maybe it should stay open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer. (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance) Why should the Euro be considered to be so reliable that it should be expected everything will cave to it? It has been inconsistent for quite a long duration. Will it remain above normal, probably but I find it to be unrealistic to expect the absurd 90's the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer. (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance) I've noticed that too. I'm all aboard for this torch. 80s till December 1st, then snow mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I am not sure if the shutdown has impacted them at all, there forcasts seem to be somewhat off/slow since it started. Well today was definitely blown. But I didn't hear anybody call for upper 80s anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 85.4F, just barely below my record high of 86F for this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Well today was definitely blown. But I didn't hear anybody call for upper 80s anywhereit was looking cloudy but that clearly didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Well today was definitely blown. But I didn't hear anybody call for upper 80s anywhere Yea, they also had mostly sunny and 81 for me yesterday, when most models where showing cloudy conditions and lower temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Well today was definitely blown. But I didn't hear anybody call for upper 80s anywhere Maybe so but there was model consensus for several days pegging close to this warmth which is not yet the case for the future time frame we are discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 november 2009 torched H5 pattern up north much more important. NAO was heading into the tank by late November, and at that point we could expect major blocking heading into early/mid December. A cold November with a positive NAO, looking positive heading into December is generally a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Yep held out on closing knowing this torch was coming; latest I've ever swam around here. Looking at the ECMWF for the next 10 days, maybe it should stay open. what's the water temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 I've noticed that too. I'm all aboard for this torch. 80s till December 1st, then snow mode. Lol i think snow88 has to change his avatar back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Eaxactly, the warmth is also helping to keep the ocean warmer. That could lead to more explosive winter storms with more mostuire. It will also keep the coast warmer, so unless you live 50+ miles away from the coast, then you could be screwed. I guess it's okay that it's torching now rather than later and the fact that we are seeing sea ice and snow cover increasing at a quick pace is good news. However, this doesn't mean that we will have a cold, snowy winter and I would have preferred at least a weak nino over neutral conditions. We could very easily carry this warm and dry pattern straight into November, December, and even into the majority of winter. And I really hate the warmth right now, it's too warm. I'd have been okay with low to mid 70s, but mid to upper 80s is more than excessive. I wonder if we could tie or even beat October 2007 with the warm departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 It will also keep the coast warmer, so unless you live 50+ miles away from the coast, then you could be screwed. I guess it's okay that it's torching now rather than later and the fact that we are seeing sea ice and snow cover increasing at a quick pace is good news. However, this doesn't mean that we will have a cold, snowy winter and I would have preferred at least a weak nino over neutral conditions. We could very easily carry this warm and dry pattern straight into November, December, and even into the majority of winter. And I really hate the warmth right now, it's too warm. I'd have been okay with low to mid 70s, but mid to upper 80s is more than excessive. I wonder if we could tie or even beat October 2007 with the warm departures. Snowfall patterns in winter are much more a function of pattern than ocean temps. If you have the right pattern w/ a trough in the east, sfc lows will be to our east, and SST's generally don't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 what's the water temp? It's broken into the 80s now with a bit of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Snowfall patterns in winter are much more a function of pattern than ocean temps. If you have the right pattern w/ a trough in the east, sfc lows will be to our east, and SST's generally don't matter much. Yea exactly, the snow we had in October/November last year happened with coastal water temps in the upper 50s to low 60s (which helped deepen the lows and bring in the CCB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 It's broken into the 80s now with a bit of heat. Wow that's great, do you have a solar cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Octobers hottest temps... Hottest max..94 in 1941 10/591 in 1939 10/1090 in 1927 10/290 in 1941 10/690 in 1938 10/1789 in 1922 10/5 88 in 1979 10/22 88 in 1949 10/10 88 in 1944 10/7 88 in 1959 10/6 88 in 1922 10/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Who cares about warmth in October.Like the snow in October did us any good 2 winters ago..and the early November snow last year in 1979 we got both snow and heat and the winter suched...I'm not expecting a great winter...If the second half of December is good and we get some more snow in February I'll be fine with that...the winter of 1961-62 was like that...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89 stands at ewr. sunday could beat it if the front stays to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 89 stands at ewr. sunday could beat it if the front stays to our north Not buying the Euro. May hit 80 Sunday at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Not buying the Euro. May hit 80 Sunday at best. With a SE wind, it won't be easy exceeding the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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