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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer.    (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance)

Why should the Euro be considered to be so reliable that it should be expected everything will cave to it? It has been inconsistent for quite a long duration. Will it remain above normal, probably but I find it to be unrealistic to expect the absurd 90's the Euro is showing.

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they would never forecast 80 this far out--watch those #'s go up as we get closer.    (Same thing in the summer, rare to see them go 90-95 when we see the models going that way a week in advance)

I've noticed that too.

 

I'm all aboard for this torch. 80s till December 1st, then snow mode.

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november 2009 torched

 

 

H5 pattern up north much more important. NAO was heading into the tank by late November, and at that point we could expect major blocking heading into early/mid December. A cold November with a positive NAO, looking positive heading into December is generally a bad sign.

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Eaxactly, the warmth is also helping to keep the ocean warmer. That could lead to more explosive winter storms with more mostuire.

 

It will also keep the coast warmer, so unless you live 50+ miles away from the coast, then you could be screwed. I guess it's okay that it's torching now rather than later and the fact that we are seeing sea ice and snow cover increasing at a quick pace is good news. However, this doesn't mean that we will have a cold, snowy winter and I would have preferred at least a weak nino over neutral conditions. 

 

We could very easily carry this warm and dry pattern straight into November, December, and even into the majority of winter. And I really hate the warmth right now, it's too warm. I'd have been okay with low to mid 70s, but mid to upper 80s is more than excessive. I wonder if we could tie or even beat October 2007 with the warm departures. 

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It will also keep the coast warmer, so unless you live 50+ miles away from the coast, then you could be screwed. I guess it's okay that it's torching now rather than later and the fact that we are seeing sea ice and snow cover increasing at a quick pace is good news. However, this doesn't mean that we will have a cold, snowy winter and I would have preferred at least a weak nino over neutral conditions. 

 

We could very easily carry this warm and dry pattern straight into November, December, and even into the majority of winter. And I really hate the warmth right now, it's too warm. I'd have been okay with low to mid 70s, but mid to upper 80s is more than excessive. I wonder if we could tie or even beat October 2007 with the warm departures. 

 

 

Snowfall patterns in winter are much more a function of pattern than ocean temps. If you have the right pattern w/ a trough in the east, sfc lows will be to our east, and SST's generally don't matter much.

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Snowfall patterns in winter are much more a function of pattern than ocean temps. If you have the right pattern w/ a trough in the east, sfc lows will be to our east, and SST's generally don't matter much.

 

Yea exactly, the snow we had in October/November last year happened with coastal water temps in the upper 50s to low 60s (which helped deepen the lows and bring in the CCB)

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Who cares about warmth in October.Like the snow in October did us any good 2 winters ago..and the early November snow last year

in 1979 we got both snow and heat and the winter suched...I'm not expecting a great winter...If the second half of December is good and we get some more snow in February I'll be fine with that...the winter of 1961-62 was like that......

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