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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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I disagree, the Western side of this sytem is modeled to be dry. The heaviest rainfall should be from just west of the center east. Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall.

When tropical based systems reach our latitude, they often develop fronts and develop much heavier rain west of the track due to the tropical air associated with it overrunning continental/cool air west of it. Models showing steady rain along or east of tropical remnant tracks are very often wrong when they are at our latitude. I would count on very little meaningful rain along or east of the track. Also, the NHC is showing it as only a 50/50 chance at developing at all, and if development occurs shear would likely hamper it. Just as likely as not this could be almost nothing even for the Gulf coast.

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That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid.

Why do you think the rain with Sandy was displaced south and west of the center? The frigid for that time of year airmass colliding with it in that region of the storm caused much more rain in that region.

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Some new obs for the Bronx crew. Just saw this pop up at the 3pm.

 

CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 83 58 42 VRB3 29.94F
BRONX BO. GARD N/A 82 59 44 NW7 29.81F
LAGUARDIA APRT SUNNY 83 57 41 NW13G23 29.91F
KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 84 57 39 W18 29.92F
NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 85 58 39 NW13 29.92S
TETERBORO MOSUNNY 86 59 39 W9 29.90F
WHITE PLAINS MOSUNNY 80 60 50 NW12 29.92F

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Some new obs for the Bronx crew. Just saw this pop up at the 3pm.

 

CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 83 58 42 VRB3 29.94F

BRONX BO. GARD N/A 82 59 44 NW7 29.81F

LAGUARDIA APRT SUNNY 83 57 41 NW13G23 29.91F

KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 84 57 39 W18 29.92F

NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 85 58 39 NW13 29.92S

TETERBORO MOSUNNY 86 59 39 W9 29.90F

WHITE PLAINS MOSUNNY 80 60 50 NW12 29.92F

Lol so much for the government shutdown

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Models will keep shifting back and forth with the track so theres no need to hug the model runs, but I think we could definitely see some tropical moisture streaming north from this. It's probably the most interesting thing I've seen in weeks, if not months.

The difference in track between the Euro and GFS is leading to some major differences in their forecast for next week.
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00z GFS came in even stronger with future Karen. Only difference is that this run the moisture is closer to the coast than previous runs when it gets up this way.

 

 

CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THIS

SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHING

EXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE

EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE

GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIES

WITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERRED

WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE

NATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS

FOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS.

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The 06Z douses the city and LI pretty good.

 

Well, since YanksFan has been hugging the GFS so tight this week, it had no choice but to cry out more precip in response to the pain. (Morning Joke)

 

Seriously though, we really need some rain up here.

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