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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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He meant that while 2007 and 1947 both had warm October's,  2007 had an opposite winter from 1947. 1947 was cold and 2007 was warm.

 

Right. The winter of 47-48 came in with 63.2 inches of snow vs 11.9 in 2007-2008.

Both Octobers were 63.6 at NYC.

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I just have a feeling that this great weather pattern of +10 departures and dry conditions is going to reverse itself in a big way. The last several years have been charachterized by extremes of heat, cold, dry and wet.

 

My prediction of a strong coastal storm around the time that NAO peaked at negative didn't come to fruition. Perhaps because the rise of the NAO has been more gradual than forecast and still remains slightly negative. The forecast is for the NAO to take a dip again mid month so we might be looking at the third week in October as a target time for something big to happen.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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This is some of the nicest weather I can remember in my entire lifetime.  Just a neverending string of beautiful days.

 

It's bookended on the front end by that heavy rainstorm we had some weeks ago, where my power went out for the first time since Sandy.  Go figure.

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12z GFS coming in with a glorious solution to spice up this stretch of boring weather. High end TS low end CAT 1 (future Karen) into the Florida panhandle at 96hrs. Then gets sucked NE along the frontal boundry. Combination produces an abundent amount of rain beginning very early Monday morning and persisting through at least Tuesday night. About a 36-48 hour event as the remnants of Karen track directly over NJ. 48 rainfall totals are 2.5"+ from I-95 West. The 1.5"+ line makes it to Queens. All interested parties in this region are at least 1.00"+. One would think areas would be able to see locally higher amounts.

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I just have a feeling that this great weather pattern of +10 departures and dry conditions is going to reverse itself in a big way. The last several years have been charachterized by extremes of heat, cold, dry and wet.

 

My prediction of a strong coastal storm around the time that NAO peaked at negative didn't come to fruition. Perhaps because the rise of the NAO has been more gradual than forecast and still remains slightly negative. The forecast is for the NAO to take a dip again mid month so we might be looking at the third week in October as a target time for something big to happen.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

The NAO block was transient and in the wrong place. -NAO doesn't always mean a coastal storm when it lifts out. Only west based ones really help us. The point of it is to slow down the flow over the eastern US to force a deep trough and a phase.

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12z GFS coming in with a glorious solution to spice up this stretch of boring weather. High end TS low end CAT 1 (future Karen) into the Florida panhandle at 96hrs. Then gets sucked NE along the frontal boundry. Combination produces an abundent amount of rain beginning very early Monday morning and persisting through at least Tuesday night. About a 36-48 hour event as the remnants of Karen track directly over NJ. 48 rainfall totals are 2.5"+ from I-95 West. The 1.5"+ line makes it to Queens. All interested parties in this region are at least 1.00"+. One would think areas would be able to see locally higher amounts.

It would likely just be showers over the city and east/south unless the remnant low tracks offshore. A low tracking over NJ will have a huge dry slot along and east of it. Also the NHC mentions shear becoming a problem which could keep it from much future development in the longer run.

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Any rain would be beneficial at this point, it's getting awfully dry out there. Although according to the drought monitor, NJ doesn't have any abnormally dry conditions, most is further east over LI and the city but it's nothing too crazy either. Getting 1-2" will alleviate any major concerns with regards to drought.

 

At this point, I guess it's best to embrace the torch. I'd rather have it now than later and according to analogs on the New England forum, it's not necessarily a bad thing for us to torch in October. We certainly learned that having snow in October is never a good thing and cold in October is pretty much useless for snow anyway. I hope the foliage isn't too damaged by all this warmth though.

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It would likely just be showers over the city and east/south unless the remnant low tracks offshore. A low tracking over NJ will have a huge dry slot along and east of it. Also the NHC mentions shear becoming a problem which could keep it from much future development in the longer run.

Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island.

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Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island.

The rain is needed more from NYC east, and the model is probably overdone with what it brings this area, underdone further west like maybe NW NJ and the Poconos. Even Sandy making landfall over Atlantic City brought just showers to most of us from the city north and east.

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Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island.

I'm pretty sure he's aware of that. Also this event is over 5 days away anyway so why get hung up on where the bullseye of heaviest rain is going to be when it likely won';t end up there?

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The rain is needed more from NYC east, and the model is probably overdone with what it brings this area, underdone further west like maybe NW NJ and the Poconos. Even Sandy making landfall over Atlantic City brought just showers to most of us from the city north and east.

That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid.

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That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid.

If you take the GFS's position of the storm verbatim then you move the heavy precipitation about 100 miles west, especially with the front being where it is.
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The 12z GEFS ensembles supported the 12z GFS op fairly well on a low end TS making landfall between New Orleans and the Florida panhandle with quite a few members carrying moisture up the coast. Let's not forget this will have a connection with the gulf so this will have abundent moisture to work with.

 

f132.gif

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If you take the GFS's position of the storm verbatim then you move the heavy precipitation about 100 miles west, especially with the front being where it is.

I disagree, the Western side of this sytem is modeled to be dry. The heaviest rainfall should be from just west of the center east. Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall.

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Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall.

 

Model hugging unfortunately has become an acceptable practice among weather hobbyists and some weather professionals alike. Instead of sound, professional forecasting, we see a lot more hype driven vodoo modelcasting.

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