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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Great post Nate! As for winter I'm thinking warm and snowless. I'm not a expert or have as much knowledge as others, but I just get that feeling. I hate warm and late falls for our area. I often feel that's the kiss of death. I think from Bos-dca will all be snowless.

Amazing how even with that cold shot we did not even pull off a -10 or greater daily. It was def kind of muted, from what was being forecast

this October is a little like 1954, 1959 and 1961...1954 had a cold December...1959 and 1961 had snowstorms for a white Christmas...If December is warm like last year I won't expect much the rest of the season...Last year we did get some snow(10" imby in Feb.) but it wasn't a blockbuster around here...

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Another above normal stretch coming October 30-November 3, so we'll close out the month near +4 in NYC. Warm Octobers haven't always meant the kiss of death for winter as we saw in October 2012 (+1.1) and October 2010 (+1.5). The magnitude of the anomaly, however, does suggest a milder than normal winter. The gradient developing with an Aleutian/Alaska ridge and strong +NAO with associated polar vortex over Greenland reminds me a lot of Winter 07-08. That year also had the abnormally mild October, finishing around +6 in Central Park, with a turn towards colder in November. Had the gradient been suppressed a little bit further south, as I am expecting this year, 07-08 would have been more like 08-09 or 71-72, both decent winters for NYC.

 

Heading forward, Nov 1-3 should feature a torch as the SE ridge dominates with a trough in the West (-PNA) and over Greenland (+NAO). However, the expansion of the Alaska ridge may cause a cold outbreak Nov 4-5, with the potential for moderation thereafter due to the positive state of the polar indices. There's no sign of cold afterwards: today's 12z ECM shows a very mild spell from November 5/6 on, with 850mb temperatures as high as 14C. The -PNA pattern remains in place, and a cut-off ridge appears over Alaska, which along with the +NAO leaves the PV on the other side of the pole, ranging from the Kara Sea to Siberia.

 

Two things we really have to watch are stratospheric temperatures and the placement of the PV. 2mb temperatures are very low right now near the North Pole, with 5mb and 10mb temperatures near normal but falling fast, indicating a strong PV and +AO regime:

attachicon.gif2mbtemps.gif

 

Also, the 12z ECM suggests the polar vortex will remain on the Eurasian side of the hemisphere, limiting the potential for cold outbreaks in North America. The placement of the polar vortex in this unfavorable state has been a persistent pattern since Winter 03-04, which was the last time we saw a dominant PV on our side, bringing the extremely cold January that brought NYC into the low single digits. Today's Euro suggests a continuation of what's been the trend since 2004, with limited cold air available on this side of the Pole:

attachicon.gifpvplacement.gif

 

Luckily, we didn't need for the dominant polar vortex to be on our side of the globe for all the record snowfalls since 2006. One of the greatest Long Island snowstorms off all time happened last winter which was mild  on average. 

 

 

 

 

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Great post Nate! As for winter I'm thinking warm and snowless. I'm not a expert or have as much knowledge as others, but I just get that feeling. I hate warm and late falls for our area. I often feel that's the kiss of death. I think from Bos-dca will all be snowless.

Amazing how even with that cold shot we did not even pull off a -10 or greater daily. It was def kind of muted, from what was being forecast

Reverse psychology? It would be very difficult to get a snowless winter from NYC to Boston at least. Even in the worst winters, we got some snow. However given how much of a dud most of this entire year has been , I wouldn't be surprised to see a dud winter as well. Perhaps 2013 is just a dull weather after some the crazy weather we've seen. 2014 could be the exact opposite.

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Big question today is if the rain forecasted for late tomorrow will hold off a few hours to give NYC a top 10 driest month on record (tied for 9th) and the 3rd driest October on record - right now they stand at 0.30 for the month

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Big question today is if the rain forecasted for late tomorrow will hold off a few hours to give NYC a top 10 driest month on record (tied for 9th) and the 3rd driest October on record - right now they stand at 0.30 for the month

Upton is going  for rain mainly after midnight with only a 20% chance of showers before then, so we might pull it off.  BDR would have it's driest October on Record and 2nd driest month of all time if we don't have any QPF prior to midnight.

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Reverse psychology? It would be very difficult to get a snowless winter from NYC to Boston at least. Even in the worst winters, we got some snow. However given how much of a dud most of this entire year has been , I wouldn't be surprised to see a dud winter as well. Perhaps 2013 is just a dull weather after some the crazy weather we've seen. 2014 could be the exact opposite.

Well in snowless I mean way below avg, obv we will see some snow. I'm thinking 2011-2012 like

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Well in snowless I mean way below avg, obv we will see some snow. I'm thinking 2011-2012 like

 

Those super duds are just as rare as blockbuster winters. I don't see it being that bad. Honestly I don't know what's going to happen at all.

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Those super duds are just as rare as blockbuster winters. I don't see it being that bad. Honestly I don't know what's going to happen at all.

I hope I'm wrong, and again my prediction is not based on any scientific reasoning. If we see that vortex show up and the end of November we might as well fast forward to spring

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Right now we have a positive NAO, positive AO and a negative PNA. We're going to torch the next 2 weeks or so. Then the pattern will likely breakdown at some point. At least the SE ridging should help track some disturbances our way as the lack of rain is really becoming an issue. The pattern projected on the day 8-9 GFS is more like what we saw in June. Hopefully a very wet pattern such as that one verifies.

 

gfs_namer_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Right now we have a positive NAO, positive AO and a negative PNA. We're going to torch the next 2 weeks or so. Then the pattern will likely breakdown at some point. At least the SE ridging should help track some disturbances our way as the lack of rain is really becoming an issue. The pattern projected on the day 8-9 GFS is more like what we saw in June. Hopefully a very wet pattern such as that one verifies.

 

 

I dont think we're necessarily going to torch. We start warm, cool off this weekend, warm up again. Looks like a back and forth pattern ending up above normal but not like in the +5 to +10 category except for a couple days.

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I dont think we're necessarily going to torch. We start warm, cool off this weekend, warm up again. Looks like a back and forth pattern ending up above normal but not like in the +5 to +10 category except for a couple days.

Yeah i think we yoyo a bit too...though a few all out torch days late next week wouldnt surprise me.

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Well in snowless I mean way below avg, obv we will see some snow. I'm thinking 2011-2012 like

It's only happened 9 times in the last 140 plus years - about as odd as having a 60 inch plus winter - which has happened about 5 times in recorded history . Plus it only happened a couple of years ago - which makes it less likely this year. Also the Nao has NOT been mainly positive the last few months . In addition we have had a few 40 degree + average temp Decembers in a row now - which rarely happens - I still think anyone who predicted a mild snowless December might not be correct this year ....

 

 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

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I dont think we're necessarily going to torch. We start warm, cool off this weekend, warm up again. Looks like a back and forth pattern ending up above normal but not like in the +5 to +10 category except for a couple days.

 

 

Violent agreement, warm  / cool  / warm with the overall biased above normal seems reasonable for the next couple weeks.

 

Remember the -EPO signal will tend to prevent prolonged torching in the Northeast though we will have transient torches along with the transient cold shots.

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It's only happened 9 times in the last 140 plus years - about as odd as having a 60 inch plus winter - which has happened about 5 times in recorded history . Plus it only happened a couple of years ago - which makes it less likely this year. Also the Nao has NOT been mainly positive the last few months . In addition we have had a few 40 degree + average temp Decembers in a row now - which rarely happens - I still think anyone who predicted a mild snowless December might not be correct this year ....

 

 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html

I don't think that means it can't happen again. Its not like we said in 2010 we can't have another snowy winter because the previous year was snowy. Or that we'd have 4 40" winters in a row from 2002-06. Last winter was one of the rare 'average' snowfall winters we've had of late. Otherwise we're usually way above or way below. Its been the trend the past 20 years or so

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Great post Nate! As for winter I'm thinking warm and snowless. I'm not a expert or have as much knowledge as others, but I just get that feeling. I hate warm and late falls for our area. I often feel that's the kiss of death. I think from Bos-dca will all be snowless.

Amazing how even with that cold shot we did not even pull off a -10 or greater daily. It was def kind of muted, from what was being forecast

Umm, because early November is going to be warm?.The last few years it snowed in late Oct and early Nov..then it blowtorched Dec and most of January..And years like 1963, and 1995 had falls like this..really makes no sense

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Umm, because early November is going to be warm?.The last few years it snowed in late Oct and early Nov..then it blowtorched Dec and most of January..And years like 1963, and 1995 had falls like this..really makes no sense

Agree 100% - check out how mild October 1995 was 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1995/10/2/MonthlyHistory.html

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I really don't see any connection at all between the pattern in October and November and the resultant winter regarding snowfall. The last two years (October/November) featured mostly a - NAO and blocking regimes, and in some cases historical blocking setups (Sandy). October 2011 featured a historical snowstorm for the area and November 2012 featured a snow storm as well. The last two winters have been anything but blockbuster regarding snowfall, although 2012-2013 was definitely better than 2011-2012. So the fact that we seem to have flipped the switch this year is probably a good sign. Now we are just getting out of a long period where the NAO was quite negative and it's perfectly plausible to think that eventually (hopefully right in time for winter) that the pattern will flip again.

 

It always bothers me when people root for cold snowless patterns due to the myth that it will make a changeover less likely at the coast should a storm system threaten the area. What type of precip falls is much more of a direct result of the synoptic setup and track rather than the airmass days if not weeks beforehand. You need things to be timed perfectly to get snow at the coast. You need an artic high pressure system anchored to the north northeast, with a fresh supply of cold air. But....it can not be too strong, or you end up with subsidence and dry conditions. Occasionally you end up with setups that are so perfect that it doesn't matter (Boxing Day) but most of our big noreasters' have featured a mix for at least part of the region for part of the event (96'). And I can use 96 as an example as the airmass was very cold beforehand with temps dipping below zero in spots. Yet, some places still had mixing issues. Those punches of warm air at the mid levels can reek havoc.

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1995 turned much colder in November, contrary to this year (at least based on what models show).

November 1995 started out quite warm the first few days - then as the weeks went by each one was colder then the previous and the first shot of much colder came on the 29th - then if you go to the next month after a brief warm up in early december around December 7th is when much colder temps took hold and it just kept getting colder and colder right through the first couple of weeks in January

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1995/11/2/MonthlyHistory.html

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