Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The lawns here are absolutely dead. The last real soaker we had in my area is Tropical Storm Andrea back in June. We need the rain, bad here. I've never seen anything like this this late...looks like mid July around here. And not surprised to see Thur/Fri rain event falling apart...that's been the trend since June 20th or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 The 12z GFS Bufkit has 925mb 70kt+ winds, at 15z Friday. But I see very little instability for mixing or convection. Might be showers with gusty winds, with the cold front. There will only be some minimal elevated instability. The thing to watch will be how much wind can mix down since the inversion weakens on the SSW wind shift . The GFS has low topped squall line potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November should end up warm, at least the 1st half. The +NAO/AO assures that will happen with all the cold air either locked in Canada or out west with plenty of SE ridging. I expect low 70s prior to the front passing. Now if November ends up warm and dry just like October, then we might be screwed this winter if precedent analogs are to be believed. How is October looking to finish departure wise anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November should end up warm, at least the 1st half. The +NAO/AO assures that will happen with all the cold air either locked in Canada or out west with plenty of SE ridging. I expect low 70s prior to the front passing. Now if November ends up warm and dry just like October, then we might be screwed this winter if precedent analogs are to be believed. How is October looking to finish departure wise anyway? Just checked..most locales around NYC are +3 to +4 range right now with roughly .25-.50 QPF for the month. A warm day Thursday will likely cement these deparatures in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 November should end up warm, at least the 1st half. The +NAO/AO assures that will happen with all the cold air either locked in Canada or out west with plenty of SE ridging. I expect low 70s prior to the front passing. Now if November ends up warm and dry just like October, then we might be screwed this winter if precedent analogs are to be believed. How is October looking to finish departure wise anyway? EWR is exactly +3 with tomorrow being below and Wednesday near normal probably somewhere around +2.6 but if Thursday torches it could be back close to +3 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Just checked..most locales around NYC are +3 to +4 range right now with roughly .25-.50 QPF for the month. A warm day Thursday will likely cement these deparatures in this range Yeah, we are seeing the continuation of the colder departures staying over the west and central parts of the U.S during October. This month is a great match with the 2007-2012 average temperature pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 So +3 to +4 is very significant, wasn't July similar with regard to departures? If it were -3 to -4 everyone would make a big deal about it, but warm months like this are pretty much more normal nowadays and we don't even notice it that much. Pretty soon we could see +5 and higher departures in the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 So +3 to +4 is very significant, wasn't July similar with regard to departures? If it were -3 to -4 everyone would make a big deal about it, but warm months like this are pretty much more normal nowadays and we don't even notice it that much. Pretty soon we could see +5 and higher departures in the coming years. Agree..the last 3 years or so have featured above or much above normal temps for the vast majority of the time. Winter/spring 11-12 had several months +5 to even +6. (March 2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Agree..the last 3 years or so have featured above or much above normal temps for the vast majority of the time. Winter/spring 11-12 had several months +5 to even +6. (March 2012) Exactly, whoever thinks the extreme warmth has ended is crazy, just like those who think all of the sudden global warming is over because of the massive recovery in Arctic sea ice and snow cover. If the arctic conditions are even a bit less favorable than we saw this year, then we will end up with a top 3 lowest arctic sea ice season. Any more unfavorable conditions and we could set a record low. Also I find it funny when +1 to +2 monthly departures is considered near normal or only slightly above normal. It's not, it's definitely above normal, but because it happens to often, I guess that's why people see it as near normal because that's the new norm I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Exactly, whoever thinks the extreme warmth has ended is crazy, just like those who think all of the sudden global warming is over because of the massive recovery in Arctic sea ice and snow cover. If the arctic conditions are even a bit less favorable than we saw this year, then we will end up with a top 3 lowest arctic sea ice season. Any more unfavorable conditions and we could set a record low. Also I find it funny when +1 to +2 monthly departures is considered near normal or only slightly above normal. It's not, it's definitely above normal, but because it happens to often, I guess that's why people see it as near normal because that's the new norm I suppose. I still believe 2 or 3 above the 1981-2010 averages is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Exactly, whoever thinks the extreme warmth has ended is crazy, just like those who think all of the sudden global warming is over because of the massive recovery in Arctic sea ice and snow cover. If the arctic conditions are even a bit less favorable than we saw this year, then we will end up with a top 3 lowest arctic sea ice season. Any more unfavorable conditions and we could set a record low. Also I find it funny when +1 to +2 monthly departures is considered near normal or only slightly above normal. It's not, it's definitely above normal, but because it happens to often, I guess that's why people see it as near normal because that's the new norm I suppose. It's really a combination of the long term warming trend coinciding with a +AMO/-PDO which gives us our warmest weather here. +AMO Take inverse for -PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I still believe 2 or 3 above the 1981-2010 averages is the new normal. Which is insane because the 1980-2010 climate block is the warmest om record, and apparently even that average is too cold to represent our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Which is insane because the 1980-2010 climate block is the warmest om record, and apparently even that average is too cold to represent our weather. But keep in mind that "on record" is a very limited time - since 1860. The best paleoclimatological evidence is that there have been intervals as warm or warmer than the last 20 years during the past 2000 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Octobers have been getting cooler on average for NYC since 1930...It could be the only month this is happening...So don't worry about a +3 October...It was bound to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 But keep in mind that "on record" is a very limited time - since 1860. The best paleoclimatological evidence is that there have been intervals as warm or warmer than the last 20 years during the past 2000 years. Actually I have a degree in geology and studied paleoclimatology. The medieval warm period, which was the warmest time period over the last 2000 years besides now still does not match the temperatures we are currently seeing globally. The temperature reconstruction was created by using a diverse set of proxies, all producing a similar result and conclusion: we are currently seeing the warmest temperatures over the last few thousand years. Actually, Milankovitch cycles currently put us near the bottom temperature wise, yet we are far warmer than we should be. And the temperature changes that did occur would happen over a span of several hundred years, not several decades like we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Exactly, whoever thinks the extreme warmth has ended is crazy, just like those who think all of the sudden global warming is over Three localized warm weeks and what do you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Three localized warm weeks and what do you know... I just want rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Growing support for strong warm spell between the 6th an 9th.. Guidance still looks overall back and froth but the warm period that looks to start around the 6th could see some very warm temps and departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Def getting close to peak here, colors look great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Everyone in this forum is from Jersey 'cept 4 Craig from Bay Shore & JM from Long Beach and they have coastal Monmouth County weather anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Everyone in this forum is from Jersey 'cept 4 Craig from Bay Shore & JM from Long Beach and they have coastal Monmouth County weather anyway... You have low key local alley from Miller Place with me, but truth is all i can do is corroborate your observations a bit further northeast than I (I live on sod farm, south of Aliano's). Nevertheless I can vouch that we've gotten best snowfalls starting with 95-96 winter; since then, those of us in Central-North-eastern Suffolk have kicked some serious booty, as you've alrady posted ( with regards to Upton's totals past 20 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 You have low key local alley from Miller Place with me, but truth is all i can do is corroborate your observations a bit further northeast than I (I live on sod farm, south of Aliano's). Nevertheless I can vouch that we've gotten best snowfalls starting with 95-96 winter; since then, those of us in Central-North-eastern Suffolk have kicked some serious booty, as you've alrady posted ( with regards to Upton's totals past 20 years) Yep...I've always liked you...but you are like sub 300 posts so that may be why I left u out...keep crackin' though...and maybe We can pull this off yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 The 12z Euro today was pretty seasonable temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Def getting close to peak here, colors look great! Yeah I took some beautiful shots today. Maples look great, but the oaks still haven't seen the "switch" turn yet and are pretty green. I'm thinking the end of this week / November 1st will be full peak. Slightly later than recent years due to the very warm Oct 1-20 period. But lows in the 30s every night of the past 8 days is doing its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Exactly, whoever thinks the extreme warmth has ended is crazy, just like those who think all of the sudden global warming is over because of the massive recovery in Arctic sea ice and snow cover. If the arctic conditions are even a bit less favorable than we saw this year, then we will end up with a top 3 lowest arctic sea ice season. Any more unfavorable conditions and we could set a record low. Also I find it funny when +1 to +2 monthly departures is considered near normal or only slightly above normal. It's not, it's definitely above normal, but because it happens to often, I guess that's why people see it as near normal because that's the new norm I suppose. FYI, Southern Hemisphere sea ice area has been smashing records like crazy over the past several months. Record high levels of ice down there, not that you'd ever hear about it. Yellow line is this year. Essentially the highest levels we've seen in the 1979-present period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Global sea ice area has been running near or slightly above normal for the majority of 2013, which is a significant improvement from the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 FYI, Southern Hemisphere sea ice area has been smashing records like crazy over the past several months. Record high levels of ice down there, not that you'd ever hear about it. Yellow line is this year. Essentially the highest levels we've seen in the 1979-present period. Warmer temperatures allowing ice to spread out though I'm not sure that's the correct explanation. I did read articles about how more ice in the Antarctic is actually a sign of warming. Eventually the ice will begin to steadily decline once it maxes out in the coming decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Warmer temperatures allowing ice to spread out though I'm not sure that's the correct explanation. I did read articles about how more ice in the Antarctic is actually a sign of warming. Eventually the ice will begin to steadily decline once it maxes out in the coming decades. Everyone is entitled to their opinions; but the ones you state here are quite simply wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 FYI, Southern Hemisphere sea ice area has been smashing records like crazy over the past several months. Record high levels of ice down there, not that you'd ever hear about it. Yellow line is this year. Essentially the highest levels we've seen in the 1979-present period. I thought the increase in Antarctic ice was explained. I find the bolded statement a little disingenuous, because we never really discuss anything happening in the southern hemisphere in here, whether it's warm or cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Global sea ice area has been running near or slightly above normal for the majority of 2013, which is a significant improvement from the past several years. I'm shocked, I thought all the ice was supposed to be gone by 2012? But I get it, more ice and snow equals more warmth and less ice and snow equals well more warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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