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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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here's the whole list...

first and last freeze dates in Central Park...

season....first.freeze....last.freeze..

1876-77.......10/15.......4/08

1877-78.......11/07.......3/26

1878-79.......11/05.......4/06

1879-80.......10/25.......4/12

1880-81.......11/18.......4/07

1881-82.......11/22.......4/12

1882-83.......11/03.......4/03

1883-84.......11/12.......4/06

1884-85.......11/19.......4/14

1885-86.......11/01.......4/04

1886-87.......11/07.......4/19

1887-88.......10/30.......4/25

1888-89.......11/17.......3/31

1889-90.......10/24.......4/19

1890-91.......11/21.......5/06

1891-92.......11/04.......4/25

1892-93.......11/11.......3/30

1893-94.......11/15.......4/09

1894-95.......11/07.......4/05

1895-96.......11/12.......4/08

1896-97.......11/23.......4/20

1897-98.......11/18.......4/07

1898-99.......11/24.......4/06

1899-00.......11/12.......4/11

1900-01.......11/15.......3/31

1901-02.......11/10.......3/20

1902-03.......12/05.......4/05

1903-04.......11/07.......4/20

1904-05.......10/31.......3/15

1905-06.......11/14.......4/01

1906-07.......11/29.......4/03

1907-08.......12/03.......4/05

1908-09.......11/04.......4/11

1909-10.......11/30.......3/18

1910-11.......11/20.......4/03

1911-12.......11/03.......4/04

1912-13.......11/03.......3/28

1913-14.......11/11.......4/13

1914-15.......11/10.......4/04

1915-16.......11/18.......4/09

1916-17.......11/15.......4/10

1917-18.......10/31.......4/12

1918-19.......11/24.......4/26

1919-20.......11/14.......4/11

1920-21.......11/12.......4/11

1921-22.......11/06.......4/21

1922-23.......11/21.......4/14

1923-24.......11/09.......4/03

1924-25.......11/16.......4/21

1925-26.......10/29.......4/20

1926-27.......11/04.......3/28

1927-28.......11/07.......4/16

1928-29.......10/30.......3/18

1929-30.......11/22.......4/24

1930-31.......11/05.......3/14

1931-32.......11/07.......4/13

1932-33.......11/20.......3/25

1933-34.......10/26.......3/29

1934-35.......11/14.......4/16

1935-36.......11/23.......4/08

1936-37.......10/26.......3/31

1937-38.......11/21.......4/07

1938-39.......11/24.......4/13

1939-40.......11/13.......4/15

1940-41.......10/19.......3/31

1941-42.......11/25.......2/28

1942-43.......11/13.......4/16

1943-44.......11/15.......4/06

1944-45.......11/23.......3/11

1945-46.......11/21.......3/12

1946-47.......11/23.......3/31

1947-48.......11/19.......4/04

1948-49.......12/11.......3/20

1949-50.......11/22.......4/14

1950-51.......11/16.......3/27

1951-52.......11/03.......3/17

1952-53.......11/29.......3/11

1953-54.......11/06.......4/04

1954-55.......11/10.......3/29

1955-56.......11/19.......3/28

1956-57.......11/10.......3/25

1957-58.......11/11.......4/09

1958-59.......11/28.......3/29

1959-60.......11/17.......3/27

1960-61.......11/07.......3/21

1961-62.......11/10.......3/09

1962-63.......11/07.......3/23

1963-64.......12/01.......4/05

1964-65.......11/21.......4/01

1965-66.......10/29.......3/29

1966-67.......11/04.......4/12

1967-68.......11/08.......4/06

1968-69.......11/21.......4/01

1969-70.......10/23.......4/11

1970-71.......11/23.......3/27

1971-72.......11/08.......4/09

1972-73.......10/20.......3/21

1973-74.......11/10.......4/10

1974-75.......10/19.......4/10

1975-76.......10/31.......4/12

1976-77.......10/27.......4/10

1977-78.......11/14.......4/03

1978-79.......11/25.......4/08

1979-80.......11/30.......4/17

1980-81.......11/16.......3/21

1981-82.......11/25.......4/08

1982-83.......11/13.......3/30

1983-84.......11/13.......3/18

1984-85.......11/19.......4/10

1985-86.......12/02.......3/22

1986-87.......11/13.......4/01

1987-88.......11/11.......3/23

1988-89.......10/31.......3/22

1989-90.......11/18.......3/28

1990-91.......11/09.......4/13

1991-92.......11/26.......4/13

1992-93.......11/08.......3/20

1993-94.......11/21.......3/19

1994-95.......11/23.......4/06

1995-96.......11/09.......3/29

1996-97.......11/12.......4/10

1997-98.......11/13.......3/23

1998-99.......12/22.......3/16

1999-00.......11/30.......4/09

2000-01.......11/20.......3/28

2001-02.......12/16.......4/07

2002-03.......11/27.......4/08

2003-04.......11/09.......4/06

2004-05.......11/09.......3/16

2005-06.......11/18.......3/22

2006-07.......12/04.......4/09

2007-08.......11/11.......3/30

2008-09.......11/18.......3/24

2009-10.......12/07.......3/27

2010-11.......12/04.......3/29

2011-12.......12/10.......3/27

2012-13.......11/06.......3/23

NYC's latest 1st 32 day since 1876...

1998...12/22

2001...12/16

1948...12/11

2011...12/10

2009...12/07

1902...12/05

2010...12/04

2006...12/04

1907...12/03

1985...12/02

1963...12/01

 

 

Thank you for this! 12/10 in 2011 is really late, amazing how much it has been pushed back. Early on the avg seem to be around late october/ early november. Now its more like late november/early december.

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+NAO will keep things relatively mild, keeps the cold locked in Canada, and will assure plenty of cutters as the 12z gfs implies. In fact the cooler air we experienced may be the coolest in a while. Canada stays cold, which is good if we ever turn the corner. The odds of us seeing anything of significance in November is fairly low, maybe towards the end of the month we have a better shot. If November does end up mild to very mild, then our winter could be jeopardized. 

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As we progress into November the latest guidance continues to show a warm up between fronts/troughs 10/30 - 11/1/.  Beyond there - the ecm and gfs dig a trough into the east with another shot of some chilly air later next weekend.  This next shot of cool  (11/2 - 11/4 or 5) looks more transient with another trough pushing into the west coast forcing ridging east.  We'll see where the 12z guidance takes us but the early part of November looks like it may be a back and forth between cold shots and warmer weather averaging near normal.   Temps could reach or exceed 70 next thu or fri, perhaps for Halloween.

 

As far a rain the next shot for meaningful precip would be with the front around 11/1 into next weekend. 

 

 

Not much change today translating the latest guidance -  we should see heights rise ahead of the next trough between wed and fri with a brief surge of warmth.  With a southwest flow temps could get near 70 thu/fri.  As we head into Nov it looks to feature a bit of back and forth with a sharp cooldown next weekend (11/2 - 11/4 or 5).  The SE ridge is modeled to offer resistance to any prolonged trough and cool in the NE in conjunction with frequent storms and troughs pushing into the west coast.  The next warmup which might occur between 11/5 and 11/10 could see some strong warmth....  Overall the first week to 10 days of nov looks near normal by way of back and forth cool and warm periods with neither locking in quite yet.

 

 

test8.gif

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A  lot of people would enjoy the rain right about now. I doubt we get more than .25 with the front though. It'll be a quick shot that'll probably runoff, we really need a nice steady 1-3" soaker to help.

Yeah the GFS keeps getting drier and drier. .25" looks to be about it. Though I wouldn't be surprised if we get far less

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