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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions.

 

gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

gfs_namer_171_precip_p36.gif

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If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions.

 

gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

gfs_namer_171_precip_p36.gif

 

Hopefully, some of the moisture from 97l that the Euro and GFS are showing makes it here.

 

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That's exactly what the GFS shows developing. Makes it down to 998mb this run in the gulf at its peak intensity.

 

The Euro has the remnant moisture over the Midwest and Apps in about a week. If the WAR is too strong, the best

chance of heavy rain will set up over the interior zones again. 

 

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The Euro has the remnant moisture over the Midwest and Apps in about a week. If the WAR is too strong, the best

chance of heavy rain will set up over the interior zones again. 

 

attachicon.gifNorth32America_msl_168.gif

these south to north moving systems tend to deposit the best rains west of us. getting a front to slip south of us would help but i don't think that's likely

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If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions.

 

gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

gfs_namer_171_precip_p36.gif

These almost always are threats for NJ and west, possibly even the Poconos and west. We had TS Andrea in June but those are generally the exception. The areas suffering the most from lack of rain are the immediate coastal areas which would likely get little more than some showers from a tropical-based system tracking over or west of them.

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80.3F today for my first 80F+ reading since September 12th.          

 

81 here first since sep 21st.   iso we may need to reopen the pool.  Im still waiting for the deluge to end the dry period - we know its coming....

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81 here first since sep 21st.   iso we may need to reopen the pool.  Im still waiting for the deluge to end the dry period - we know its coming....

 

 

Believe it or not, I held out on closing here hoping early October would flip warm, so maybe some surprise swimming in the coming days. Early summer season blew chunks so maybe pick up the slack now. The next two weeks could potentially be 75+ per the Euro. Looks torchy through 10th/12th.

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lmao I agree, tomorrow might be hotter than most days we had in August.

Let's not forget it was in the mid 90s in September so it's not like it's been since July since we've seen any type of heat. As long as snowfall expands rapidly throughout Siberia I can deal with this late season heat surge.

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I'm glad I didn't take the ac down...the 22 years that had top five daily highs in the first week of October had average snowfall but with extremes...1931 and 1997 had less than 6" for the season while 1922 and 1995 had over 60" each...so anything can happen...and will...

1879...22.7"...mild

1881...31.4"...cold

1891...25.4"...cold

1919...47.6"...cold

1922...60.4"...cold

1931.....5.3"...mild

1927...14.5"...mild

1941...11.3"...mild

1943...23.8"...cold

1944...27.1"...cold

1946...30.6"...norm

1950...11.6"...mild

1951...19.7"...mild

1954...11.5"...norm

1959...39.2"...mild

1961...18.1"...cold

1963...44.7"...cold

1967...19.5"...cold

1968...30.2"...cold

1995...75.6"...cold

1997.....5.5"...mild

2007...11.9"...mild

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I'm glad I didn't take the ac down...the 22 years that had top five daily highs in the first week of October had average snowfall but with extremes...1931 and 1997 had less than 6" for the season while 1922 and 1995 had over 60" each...so anything can happen...and will...

1879...22.7"...mild

1881...31.4"...cold

1891...25.4"...cold

1919...47.6"...cold

1922...60.4"...cold

1931.....5.3"...mild

1927...14.5"...mild

1941...11.3"...mild

1943...23.8"...cold

1944...27.1"...cold

1946...30.6"...norm

1950...11.6"...mild

1951...19.7"...mild

1954...11.5"...norm

1959...39.2"...mild

1961...18.1"...cold

1963...44.7"...cold

1967...19.5"...cold

1968...30.2"...cold

1995...75.6"...cold

1997.....5.5"...mild

2007...11.9"...mild

 

It seems like our October temperatures don't have much off a relationship to what happens in the winter. At least since 2002, the

location of where the October 500 mb anomalies set up gave us better clues as to how the winter would turn out.

 

2007 and 1947 were tied for warmest October, but had opposite winters. But sometimes very cold Octobers

like 1917 and 1976 carry over into those historically cold winters.

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2007 was a cold winter? It seemed we got little snow and cold.

Euro last night says keep the shorts out. Torch!

We all agree it would stay mild for the next 10 days or so, but mid to upper 70's in early October is not much of a torch, I would say mid- to upper 80's is.

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