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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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This is actually good news for December if you like colder weather and snow - the NAO is going to be positive through at least the first couple weeks of November maybe longer and if the 1 month trend of positive vs. negative NAO holds it should go back to negative by the last week of November and stay negative through a good chunk of December -BUT one thing that is very concerning right now is the drought we are currently in -yes Upton actually used that word in yesterdays discussion - we have had 6 Decembers in a row with precip above 4 inches which has never happened before - another thing to worry about is that this fall is turning out similar to 2001 - mild and dry - we all remember how the 01 -02 winter turned out...

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It'll probably end up like +1 to +2 for November with a +NAO but the high heights out west and by the Aleutians, NW Canada are promising. If that can stay with us this winter, then at the very least we could see interesting gradient events like in 1993-1994. If the NAO goes negative then it's even better as we could get some decent snow events. I won't like the fact we get a warm October and November as those have favored warmer, less snowy winters. Also the dryness is not promising either, but patterns can flip on a dime sometimes and what we see in fall may not be what we see in winter.

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Yeah but the Superstorm was in March of 1993 meaning that the November analog would have been the following winter after.

 

 

I know. Mother nature can hold the superstorm, it was a pathetic 12" here. I'd take 93-94 over 92-93 any day.

 

Of course just to clarify, a similar H5 pattern right now does not mean we'll continue being similar to 93-94 throughout the winter season. The comparisons could fall apart in a couple weeks.

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I know. Mother nature can hold the superstorm, it was a pathetic 12" here. I'd take 93-94 over 92-93 any day.

 

Of course just to clarify, a similar H5 pattern right now does not mean we'll continue being similar to 93-94 throughout the winter season. The comparisons could fall apart in a couple weeks.

I was to young to remember 93 (7 years old)

 

I would have been quite excited to see 4" of snow in the FL panhandle though.

 

Why is it that people only care about snow? It's such a small percentage of weather events.

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I was to young to remember 93 (7 years old)

 

I would have been quite excited to see 4" of snow in the FL panhandle though.

 

Why is it that people only care about snow? It's such a small percentage of weather events.

93-94 wasn't just about snow, it had everything, record cold, snow, ice, long duration events, snow on the ground most of the winter. We lucked out particularly with the Feb 8-11 period with back to back storms totaling 24-30" but most places saw one third of that. 92-93 had the December superstorm (mostly rain and wind) and the March superstorm and little else.

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Frz warning up for my area! Growing season ends tonight

 

 

We must've had just a slight frost last night. I noticed today that my tomato, eggplant and pepper plants were only slightly damaged. They'll be finished off tonight. I do have some brussels sprouts plants in my garden, which I started from seeds in the summer for a fall crop. They can handle freezing temps. So when we say the growing season ends tonight, it's for most but not all things. I'll be getting brussels sprouts in november when the rest of the garden is dead.

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