wx.1028 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 37.8 F nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 This cool down has really been muted from what was expected, it was 57 yesterday and 37 this morning when the average is 62/38 or so and the next few days will be about the same. We could also really torch next week at the 06z gfs shows with a strong cutter. Halloween could be mild and wet so the rain would be a plus. It looks slightly above normal after the cutter moves through, the +NAO will keep the cold away for now. Still think the month will finish at +4 or higher given we warm above normal 29-31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period. The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2. The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period. The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2. The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it. Looks like Long Island is officially in a D1 moderate drought now. Central Park is 7.5" below normal since July. Looking at the lawns and trees across much of this area, they look pained at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 36.6 was the lowest i saw before I left for work. There was frost everywhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 This cool down has really been muted from what was expected, it was 57 yesterday and 37 this morning when the average is 62/38 or so and the next few days will be about the same. We could also really torch next week at the 06z gfs shows with a strong cutter. Halloween could be mild and wet so the rain would be a plus. It looks slightly above normal after the cutter moves through, the +NAO will keep the cold away for now. Still think the month will finish at +4 or higher given we warm above normal 29-31st. I don't think it's muted. It always seemed like low to mid 50s for highs and low 30s for lows was about the coldest we'd see. I think most places outside of the heat island will see low 30s tonight and tomorrow night but we'll likely be back above normal by Monday or Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 NYC looks like it's on track for only its 8th month below an inch of precipitation since 2000. 10-00 .68 10-01 .66 02-02 .71 09-05 .48 03-06 .80 02-09 .93 03-12 .96 10-13 .30...so far I think there's an excellent chance this will be one of the driest Octobers on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darienzo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I think there's an excellent chance this will be one of the driest Octobers on record. FYI...driest months of all time for NYC: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/wetdryyearsmonths.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 The GFS still has rain on the 31st and plenty of it. Not that I buy it yet but there is a chance of squeezing out a half inch though would still most likely end up under 1" for the month. Wouldn't surprise me if we get more on 11/1 than all of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 FYI...driest months of all time for NYC: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/wetdryyearsmonths.html If the rain holds off to after Halloween then we can actually make top ten for any month. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period. The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2. The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it. A potent storm cutting would definitely give us some rain so I doubt we would get less than a tenth of an inch if rain. The gfs makes more sense though probably too extreme. We've had record setting warmth this month, how much more warmth dio you need. Since we are entering November now, I don't want to be talking about 70s for highs. A warm November is not a good precursor to winter so I'd like it to stay as cool as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Much warmer out here for this morning. 40.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 A potent storm cutting would definitely give us some rain so I doubt we would get less than a tenth of an inch if rain. The gfs makes more sense though probably too extreme. We've had record setting warmth this month, how much more warmth dio you need. Since we are entering November now, I don't want to be talking about 70s for highs. A warm November is not a good precursor to winter so I'd like it to stay as cool as possible. The 00z ECMWF had this storm cutting way to the west, so far west that all the rain missed us. The 12z ECMWF however is shifting to a GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z Euro still has temps moderating late in the period. Also keeps the cutter fairly weak and we don't get much rain despite a further SE track. Then a big cutter goes to the lakes next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Next Saturday a total washout on the 12z Euro. Way out there, but you have a strong front moving through with waves of low pressure riding a long it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Next Saturday a total washout on the 12z Euro. Way out there, but you have a strong front moving through with waves of low pressure riding a long it. I'll believe when I see it-it's dustbowl here with the lawns (or what's left of them getting mowed) Never seen it this dry here this late. BDR's at .28 an inch for the month, driest ever so far. Most NYC reporting stations around the same figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Media already calling this slightly below average stretch a cold snap SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I'm surprised there's no frost advisories over here or maybe even freeze warnings. Given the dews in the 20s, us already being in the low 50s and low humidity, we should drop quickly once the sun sets. It got down to 37F last night, I think 33 or lower is possible tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 First flakes of the yr! 5 mins worth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Time sensitive radar showing the Lake Effect activity: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 I'm surprised there's no frost advisories over here or maybe even freeze warnings. Given the dews in the 20s, us already being in the low 50s and low humidity, we should drop quickly once the sun sets. It got down to 37F last night, I think 33 or lower is possible tonight. Too windy, won't decouple. Freezes will occur Saturday morning as sfc high approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 First flakes of the yr! 5 mins worth lol Lucky you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Just had a decent rain shower near Paramus, NJ. Unless I was imagining things, it looked like the precip was falling as snow but melting into raindrops maybe 500-1000ft above the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Just had a decent rain shower near Paramus, NJ. Unless I was imagining things, it looked like the precip was falling as snow but melting into raindrops maybe 500-1000ft above the ground. It probably was snow at that level. There are flakes flying in the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Rainfall in Smithtown: October - 0.19" September - 1.63" August - 1.48" Since January 1 - 30.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 43/24 currently.. Its def chilly out there. I was trying to hold out on the heat till at least Nov 1 but the wife was gonna kill me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 43/24 currently.. Its def chilly out there. I was trying to hold out on the heat till at least Nov 1 but the wife was gonna kill me 24? Bombs away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 24? Bombs away? Yeah.. Should hit the 20's tonight. 38/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 Yup I was trying on holding off with the heat as well that failed. The Ms. Cranked it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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