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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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This cool down has really been muted from what was expected, it was 57 yesterday and 37 this morning when the average is 62/38 or so and the next few days will be about the same. We could also really torch next week at the 06z gfs shows with a strong cutter. Halloween could be mild and wet so the rain would be a plus. It looks slightly above normal after the cutter moves through, the +NAO will keep the cold away for now. 

 

Still think the month will finish at +4 or higher given we warm above normal 29-31st.

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The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period.

 

The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2.

 

The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it.

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The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period.

 

The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2.

 

The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it.

Looks like Long Island is officially in a D1 moderate drought now. Central Park is 7.5" below normal since July. Looking at the lawns and trees across much of this area, they look pained at best.

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This cool down has really been muted from what was expected, it was 57 yesterday and 37 this morning when the average is 62/38 or so and the next few days will be about the same. We could also really torch next week at the 06z gfs shows with a strong cutter. Halloween could be mild and wet so the rain would be a plus. It looks slightly above normal after the cutter moves through, the +NAO will keep the cold away for now. 

 

Still think the month will finish at +4 or higher given we warm above normal 29-31st.

I don't think it's muted. It always seemed like low to mid 50s for highs and low 30s for lows was about the coldest we'd see. I think most places outside of the heat island will see low 30s tonight and tomorrow night but we'll likely be back above normal by Monday or Tuesday

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NYC looks like it's on track for only its 8th month below an inch of precipitation since 2000.

 

 

10-00  .68

10-01  .66

02-02  .71

09-05  .48

03-06  .80

02-09  .93

03-12  .96

10-13  .30...so far

 

I think there's an excellent chance this will be one of the driest Octobers on record.

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The models are in excellent agreement on a fairly potent storm cutting to the lakes next week as the NAO transitions to positive and the SE ridge gets pumped up. This should bring a brief warm up the first week of November before a cold frontal passage late in the forecast period.

 

The 00z Euro now has highs in the mid-50's for most on Halloween after indicating that we would be hard pressed to make it out of the low 40's a few days ago. This is then followed by widespread 60's next Friday, and a few spots could hit 70 with the flow coming out of the southwest on Saturday 11/2.

 

The 00z Euro had less than 0.10" of rain for the entire region for the next ten days. Dryness continues, might as well get some nice warm weather out of it.

A potent storm cutting would definitely give us some rain so I doubt we would get less than a tenth of an inch if rain. The gfs makes more sense though probably too extreme. We've had record setting warmth this month, how much more warmth dio you need. Since we are entering November now, I don't want to be talking about 70s for highs. A warm November is not a good precursor to winter so I'd like it to stay as cool as possible.

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A potent storm cutting would definitely give us some rain so I doubt we would get less than a tenth of an inch if rain. The gfs makes more sense though probably too extreme. We've had record setting warmth this month, how much more warmth dio you need. Since we are entering November now, I don't want to be talking about 70s for highs. A warm November is not a good precursor to winter so I'd like it to stay as cool as possible.

The 00z ECMWF had this storm cutting way to the west, so far west that all the rain missed us. The 12z ECMWF however is shifting to a GFS solution.

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Next Saturday a total washout on the 12z Euro. Way out there, but you have a strong front moving through with waves of low pressure riding a long it.

I'll believe when I see it-it's dustbowl here with the lawns (or what's left of them getting mowed)  Never seen it this dry here this late.  BDR's at .28 an inch for the month, driest ever so far.   Most NYC reporting stations around the same figure.

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I'm surprised there's no frost advisories over here or maybe even freeze warnings. Given the dews in the 20s, us already being in the low 50s and low humidity, we should drop quickly once the sun sets. It got down to 37F last night, I think 33 or lower is possible tonight.

 

 

Too windy, won't decouple.

 

Freezes will occur Saturday morning as sfc high approaches.

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Just had a decent rain shower near Paramus, NJ. Unless I was imagining things, it looked like the precip was falling as snow but melting into raindrops maybe 500-1000ft above the ground.

It probably was snow at that level. There are flakes flying in the Hudson Valley.

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