October 2013 Observations & Discussions

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Haven't seen this mentioned anywhere here yet, but October 2013 is shaping up to be an incredibly dry month. Just 0.39" at my station thus far. Looks like another dry week ahead too.

Here's a look at some of the driest October's in NYC history:

Driest 1963: 0.14, 1924: 0.28, 1879: 0.43, 1892: 0.59, 2001/1909: 0.66, 2000: 0.67, 1897: 0.72, 1918: 0.78, 1946: 0.85

Corresponding Winters for Central Park, NY:

1892-1893: 49.7"

1897-1898: 21.1"

1963-1964: 44.7"

[Guest Pamela]

Really weird: EWR got down to 41, while LGA was stuck at 52. Does EWR typically radiate that much more than NYC and LGA? I figured those three sites would be much closer in temperature...

 

 

All three stations are hellholes that produce numbers which distort the climate record & people's perceptions.

[Guest Pamela]

All three stations are hellholes that produce numbers which distort the climate record & people's perceptions.

 

 

The fact that the respected Koppen Climate Classification System places NYC in the "sub-tropical" climate zone (same as Houston, Texas) is simply messed up.

[Stormlover74]

I expect some rain, the gfs has been fairly consistent for a while now and the Euro bombed horrifically with that coastal a week ago or so. I'm going with a quarter to a half inch of rain for now, would like a more consolidated coastal though.

We're also due for an overperforming event for a change

[Sundog]

The NAM is truly utter crap.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The NAM is truly utter crap.

Any unusual changes on the 00Z NAM?

[Sundog]

Any unusual changes on the 00Z NAM?

No rain for the tristate. Just a slight difference from the previous runs I would say.

[SnoSki14]

Wow the Nam is garbage, huge run to run changes within 36 hrs.

[bluewave]

I guess that the very wet streak that we experienced from 2003-2011 was bound to end or take a break

sometime.

 

 

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

39.7F this morning, another low 5-7F under the forecast.

[stormwarn]

NAM showing that we could get a half inch or more of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. No one here buys it? I hope we get a decent amount. I want to go outside and mulch the leaves with the mower, but it's way too dry. Dry dirt would fly everywhere. We desperately need some rain to moisten the ground.

 

I for one am not buying the NAM. I expect sprinkles at the most!

 

But you're right, we need some rain. Those who do not have gardens don't take notice of these things.

[Allsnow]

I don't even look at the nam anymore. I could care less what it shows. The same goes with winter storms, idk why people get so work up about it

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z Euro had wide spread sub freezing lows overnight from 10/30-10/31 with lower 20's possible 75 miles NW of NYC. High temps on Halloween look to be in the low to mid 40's.

 

Also, less than 0.50" of total QPF on the entire 00z Euro run.

[gkrangers]

I don't even look at the nam anymore. I could care less what it shows. The same goes with winter storms, idk why people get so work up about it

Oh please.  You'll be honking the next time it shows a bomb coming up the coast. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I just want to point out that the record low for this Friday Night is 28F. We have encountered more than a handful of 2002 records in the past few months and most of them were record lows. 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS has a nice miller A during the 10/31-11/1 time frame. It's OTS but a nice long wave trough amplifies.

[jm1220]

I guess that the very wet streak that we experienced from 2003-2011 was bound to end or take a break

sometime.

 

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The recent dry period looks to be localized however, not indicative of a larger trend to rain more out West, etc. It seems to be mostly bad luck. Last winter could have been much better for many of us with slightly more blocking, or even the recent stalled out system could have been a deluge for us had the closed low feature been able to crawl slightly north, etc. I think over time it will all even out.

[IsentropicLift]

The recent dry period looks to be localized however, not indicative of a larger trend to rain more out West, etc. It seems to be mostly bad luck. Last winter could have been much better for many of us with slightly more blocking, or even the recent stalled out system could have been a deluge for us had the closed low feature been able to crawl slightly north, etc. I think over time it will all even out.

The past few years have been nothing but extremes in both directions. I wouldn't expect any less as this extended period of below average precip will likely be followed by an extended period of above average precip.

[dbc]

The past few years have been nothing but extremes in both directions. I wouldn't expect any less as this extended period of below average precip will likely be followed by an extended period of above average precip.

Last year's winter was not extreme in my opinion. It was a solid normal winter for a change. I'd say the rest of 2013's weather has followed suit with it's normal look other than some slightly abnormal dry stretches.

[NycStormChaser]

Drizzling now in Weehawken, New Jersey.

[Stormlover74]

Last year's winter was not extreme in my opinion. It was a solid normal winter for a change. I'd say the rest of 2013's weather has followed suit with it's normal look other than some slightly abnormal dry stretches.

I would agree. This year hasn't been as wet, hasn't had many heatwaves, and has had a few below normal months. Essentially since the early season snowstorm last November its been much quieter.

[Allsnow]

38 degrees in chicago at 1pm

[IsentropicLift]

12Z Euro is dry and chilly the next 7 days.

[Allsnow]

Oh please.  You'll be honking the next time it shows a bomb coming up the coast. 

 

 

lol 

[Allsnow]

big early season winter storm on the euro next week for the upper midwest and colorado

[SnoSki14]

I would agree. This year hasn't been as wet, hasn't had many heatwaves, and has had a few below normal months. Essentially since the early season snowstorm last November its been much quieter.

 

Well so far this month's heat has been record breaking and the dry conditions these past few months are nothing to sneeze at either. Extreme weather doesn't have to mean huge storms, 100s in the summer, or 0 to below zero in the winter, near record dry conditions and a near record warm month are extreme as well although the month will end up less extreme by the time it ends. 

[SACRUS]

Today will be the last of the above normal days for the next week.  May sneak in a + day between fronts next week.

[winterwx21]

I for one am not buying the NAM. I expect sprinkles at the most!

 

But you're right, we need some rain. Those who do not have gardens don't take notice of these things.

 

 

Yeah, extended dry weather is very irritating to those of us that have gardens. But at least the extended dry weather this season waited until the fall. We had plenty of rain during the summer. The lawns stayed green all summer, and I didn't have to water my vegetable garden much. Better to have the dry weather now in October when the crops are almost finished, than in the summer when you really need the rain.

 

But I do hope we get some tomorrow because again, I want to be able to mulch the leaves without dry dirt flying everywhere. It's bone dry. I hope we can somehow squeeze out a quarter inch, but it's not looking very likely. Probably just a few hundreths of an inch, barely enough to briefy wet the ground. We just can't buy any real rain this month.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Yeah, extended dry weather is very irritating to those of us that have gardens. But at least the extended dry weather this season waited until the fall. We had plenty of rain during the summer. The lawns stayed green all summer, and I didn't have to water my vegetable garden much. Better to have the dry weather now in October when the crops are almost finished, than in the summer when you really need the rain.

 

But I do hope we get some tomorrow because again, I want to be able to mulch the leaves without dry dirt flying everywhere. It's bone dry. I hope we can somehow squeeze out a quarter inch, but it's not looking very likely. Probably just a few hundreths of an inch, barely enough to briefy wet the ground. We just can't buy any real rain this month.

 

Out here the drought started in July. So its pretty serious and there will likely be a decent die-off of trees. Watching that shower dissapear this afternoon as it headed for the city was painfully to watch

[bluewave]

Out here the drought started in July. So its pretty serious and there will likely be a decent die-off of trees. Watching that shower dissapear this afternoon as it headed for the city was painfully to watch

 

I was just down in Long Beach and the lawns look terrible from a combination of the dry conditions and the salt water damage

from Hurricane Sandy. The surge line was really obvious in spots as recently as the spring into summer.

This was a shot of a lawn that marks the surge elevation at Lincoln and Walnut back in April.