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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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My first time broken into the 30s of the season.

39.9 off of 67 yesterday, not bad.

Looks like winter this morning with high clouds overspreading and a chill in the air.          

 

Iso surprised you didnt reach the 30s one of tghose cold sep days.  41 here last night.  Looks  like the cold sets up shop for a while come wed.

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Iso surprised you didnt reach the 30s one of tghose cold sep days.  41 here last night.  Looks  like the cold sets up shop for a while come wed.

 

 

Yeah it was very close, just about a month ago on September 18th, I reached 40.3F. So only slightly colder this morning.

 

Not sure if our first frost happens Sunday night or we wait until the reinforcing cold shot post Tuesday. Last night's temps were colder than progged for sure. Right now point and click has lower 40s for Sunday night but I'm thinking 35-40F possibly. Maybe a light frost Sun night with the real freeze Wednesday night.

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The 12z Euro really backed off, so we'll just have to continue with the unusually dry conditions.

 

That's my biggest concern this winter. The question of will we actually see storms this winter as opposed to rain or snow. Are we in a prolonged dry pattern and will we get out of it in time for winter. I still think we'll see a coastal though, I think the models will come on board in a few days. 

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That's my biggest concern this winter. The question of will we actually see storms this winter as opposed to rain or snow. Are we in a prolonged dry pattern and will we get out of it in time for winter. I still think we'll see a coastal though, I think the models will come on board in a few days. 

With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter.

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With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter.

 

I remember one major storm.

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With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter.

 

I disagree, there's plenty of ways to get big storms without blocking. Perhaps they aren't as major or prolonged as when blocking is involved, but they can happen. As for next week, I fully anticipate a strong coastal because of the huge change in the NAO from negative to positive and I'll be shocked if we don't have one. 

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With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter.

 

single biggest snowfall of my lifetime occurred last winter.  of course blocking is preferred but i think your language here is a little strong.  we had no blocking and no arctic airmass in place and relatively stale air to the north and found a way to put down 30 inches out here.

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Same here. Got 9 inches from that storm last Feb.

 

Brooklyn, Queens, & Manhattan were generally 8 to 12 inches with that storm.  I think the 6 inches out of Kennedy Airport might have been an under measurement. 

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Very chilly look next week, Wednesday is when the big chill really starts, current forecasts show 53-55F for highs and mid to upper 30s for lows. Those figures may be too high especially if we're dealing with a coastal storm on Wednesday like the gfs implies. It's possible that we may struggle to hit 50 on one or more days later next week for highs but the forecast lows are probably close to what we'll actually see.

 

I don't think many will see lows colder than 34-35F unless you live quite a ways N&W or in the higher elevations because there's no big high that'll be over us that would aid in idea radiating conditions. That probably means the lows will be fairly uniform and even the city could drop into the 30s with a brisk NW wind and CAA. The chill also looks to stay for the remainder of this month and heading into November minus the 1-2 days where it could warm up ahead of a strong front. 

 

So we could actually see some -10 or lower departures which I didn't think we would see too much of. 

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OKX:

 

POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY RAINSTORM SEEMED TO BE INCREASING SURROUNDING
THE WED TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE LOW
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE A MUCH DRIER SOLN. AS A RESULT...ONLY CARRY
30 POPS FOR THE EVENT. ALTHOUGH USUALLY EXCESSIVE...THE GFS SNOW
ALGORITHM DID PRODUCE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
FLAKES ELSEWHERE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG.

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OKX:

 

POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY RAINSTORM SEEMED TO BE INCREASING SURROUNDING

THE WED TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE LOW

OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE A MUCH DRIER SOLN. AS A RESULT...ONLY CARRY

30 POPS FOR THE EVENT. ALTHOUGH USUALLY EXCESSIVE...THE GFS SNOW

ALGORITHM DID PRODUCE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW

FLAKES ELSEWHERE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG.

 

:) the NWS knows how to get our attention but like they say a north & west slight chance for snow showers.

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