snywx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 35 last night... Not the lowest but pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 43F, a few degrees colder than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 That is a very impressive STJ streak coming up the coast with the low this week. If the trough can go negative tilt a bit earlier, we will have an even stronger storm potential. gfsUS_250_spd_021.gif gfsUS_250_spd_114.gif There's no blocking. So I'm highly skeptical, how much amplification can occur, near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 My first time broken into the 30s of the season. 39.9 off of 67 yesterday, not bad. Looks like winter this morning with high clouds overspreading and a chill in the air. Iso surprised you didnt reach the 30s one of tghose cold sep days. 41 here last night. Looks like the cold sets up shop for a while come wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Iso surprised you didnt reach the 30s one of tghose cold sep days. 41 here last night. Looks like the cold sets up shop for a while come wed. Yeah it was very close, just about a month ago on September 18th, I reached 40.3F. So only slightly colder this morning. Not sure if our first frost happens Sunday night or we wait until the reinforcing cold shot post Tuesday. Last night's temps were colder than progged for sure. Right now point and click has lower 40s for Sunday night but I'm thinking 35-40F possibly. Maybe a light frost Sun night with the real freeze Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Iso surprised you didnt reach the 30s one of tghose cold sep days. 41 here last night. Looks like the cold sets up shop for a while come wed. Color's really exploding here as well. I'd guestimate around 60% changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 There's no blocking. So I'm highly skeptical, how much amplification can occur, near our area. The 12z Euro really backed off, so we'll just have to continue with the unusually dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 12z Euro really backed off, so we'll just have to continue with the unusually dry conditions. the flow is just too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The 12z Euro really backed off, so we'll just have to continue with the unusually dry conditions. That's my biggest concern this winter. The question of will we actually see storms this winter as opposed to rain or snow. Are we in a prolonged dry pattern and will we get out of it in time for winter. I still think we'll see a coastal though, I think the models will come on board in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 That's my biggest concern this winter. The question of will we actually see storms this winter as opposed to rain or snow. Are we in a prolonged dry pattern and will we get out of it in time for winter. I still think we'll see a coastal though, I think the models will come on board in a few days. With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter. I remember one major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 We also had a lot of 1-2" events last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter. I disagree, there's plenty of ways to get big storms without blocking. Perhaps they aren't as major or prolonged as when blocking is involved, but they can happen. As for next week, I fully anticipate a strong coastal because of the huge change in the NAO from negative to positive and I'll be shocked if we don't have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With no blocking, we will be hard pressed to see a major storm of any kind. We saw the same problem all last winter. single biggest snowfall of my lifetime occurred last winter. of course blocking is preferred but i think your language here is a little strong. we had no blocking and no arctic airmass in place and relatively stale air to the north and found a way to put down 30 inches out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Ok so the Euro backed off.. before last weeks bust I would had believed in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Can anyone estimate what time the "showers" will arrive tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Can anyone estimate what time the "showers" will arrive tonight? They are already here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I remember one major storm. Same here. Got 9 inches from that storm last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Same here. Got 9 inches from that storm last Feb. Brooklyn, Queens, & Manhattan were generally 8 to 12 inches with that storm. I think the 6 inches out of Kennedy Airport might have been an under measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Brooklyn, Queens, & Manhattan were generally 8 to 12 inches with that storm. I think the 6 inches out of Kennedy Airport might have been an under measurement. I measured it myself. The rates overnight were impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Very chilly look next week, Wednesday is when the big chill really starts, current forecasts show 53-55F for highs and mid to upper 30s for lows. Those figures may be too high especially if we're dealing with a coastal storm on Wednesday like the gfs implies. It's possible that we may struggle to hit 50 on one or more days later next week for highs but the forecast lows are probably close to what we'll actually see. I don't think many will see lows colder than 34-35F unless you live quite a ways N&W or in the higher elevations because there's no big high that'll be over us that would aid in idea radiating conditions. That probably means the lows will be fairly uniform and even the city could drop into the 30s with a brisk NW wind and CAA. The chill also looks to stay for the remainder of this month and heading into November minus the 1-2 days where it could warm up ahead of a strong front. So we could actually see some -10 or lower departures which I didn't think we would see too much of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Area of rain in E PA looks pretty impressive. Most of the models were very dry though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Pouring here in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Pouring here in PA Taking a break from Brooklyn? We had some light showers here earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 OKX: POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY RAINSTORM SEEMED TO BE INCREASING SURROUNDINGTHE WED TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE LOWOFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE A MUCH DRIER SOLN. AS A RESULT...ONLY CARRY30 POPS FOR THE EVENT. ALTHOUGH USUALLY EXCESSIVE...THE GFS SNOWALGORITHM DID PRODUCE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEWFLAKES ELSEWHERE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 I like how the line of rain pretty much fell apart in the area where it will pass through the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 OKX: POTENTIAL FOR A CHILLY RAINSTORM SEEMED TO BE INCREASING SURROUNDING THE WED TIME PERIOD UNTIL THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD BE A MUCH DRIER SOLN. AS A RESULT...ONLY CARRY 30 POPS FOR THE EVENT. ALTHOUGH USUALLY EXCESSIVE...THE GFS SNOW ALGORITHM DID PRODUCE A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW FLAKES ELSEWHERE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG. the NWS knows how to get our attention but like they say a north & west slight chance for snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 .04" rain tonight. Just enough to wet the dirt. .94 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Moderately heavy shower in the village about 40 minutes ago. Got up town to Midtown and did not seem to have rained as much. Crazy that I got excited over a brief shower. That's been it for Manhattan in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 0.02 rain tonight , 0.61 for the month and 35.99 for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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