Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Anyone see this sneak into the AFD?

 

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS...FCST RH DROPPING TO 30-35 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH MAY PROMOTE FIRE WX GROWTH ON FRI...WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON NYC METRO AND NE NJ. THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TONIGHT...ATTM EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH REMAIN NW OF NYC. WILL UPDATE
FWF WITH ENHANCED WORDING.

 

Getting very dry out there now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still looks like the strongest departures of the coming cold shot will occur between 10/24 and 10/30.   Still think first frost and freeze likely for many.  Will be close into metro NY/NJ.   Overall guidance continues to look mainly dry or limited precip the next week.  We should see a brief warmup between the first cold shot and perhaps a reload towards Halloween and early Nov.  Beyond there I suspect we see a return toeards more normal temps into the first week of Nov.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still looks like the strongest departures of the coming cold shot will occur between 10/24 and 10/30.   Still think first frost and freeze likely for many.  Will be close into metro NY/NJ.   Overall guidance continues to look mainly dry or limited precip the next week.  We should see a brief warmup between the first cold shot and perhaps a reload towards Halloween and early Nov.  Beyond there I suspect we see a return toeards more normal temps into the first week of Nov.

this Octobers temperatures are a far cry from 1964 which I am using as an analog...But precipitation which was a record 0.14" in 1964 is close this year with 0.29"...The month could end up as a top ten driest October...

driest...

0.14" in 1964...la nina winter

0.28" in 1924...la nina winter...

0.43" in 1879...neutral- winter...

0.59" in 1892...la nina winter...

0.66" in 2001...neutral- winter...

0.66" in 1909...la nina winter...

0.67" in 2000...la nina winter...

0.72" in 1897...neutral- winter...

0.78" in 1918...el nino winter...

0.85" in 1946...neutral- winter...

0.88" in 1921...neutral- winter...

out of the eleven driest Octobers only one was an el nino year...The others were neutral negative or la nina years...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this Octobers temperatures are a far cry from 1964 which I am using as an analog...But precipitation which was a record 0.14" in 1964 is close this year with 0.29"...The month could end up as a top ten driest October...

driest...

0.14" in 1963...el nino winter

0.28" in 1924...la nina winter...

0.43" in 1879...neutral- winter...

0.59" in 1892...la nina winter...

0.66" in 2001...neutral- winter...

0.66" in 1909...la nina winter...

0.67" in 2000...la nina winter...

0.72" in 1897...neutral- winter...

0.78" in 1918...el nino winter...

0.85" in 1946...neutral- winter...

0.88" in 1921...neutral- winter...

out of the eleven driest Octobers only two were el nino years...The others were neutral negative or la nina years...

 

 

Unc -  you mean 63?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A far as the October warmth goes, it's been so warm that my coldest low was nearly a month ago in September so far this meteorological fall, not to mention it dropped into the 40s at least 6 times in September vs. only twice this month. So given all that, this upcoming cool down is much needed. 

We don't need to jump from September to January in one weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...