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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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Anyone see this sneak into the AFD?

 

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS...FCST RH DROPPING TO 30-35 PERCENT...AND WEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH MAY PROMOTE FIRE WX GROWTH ON FRI...WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ON NYC METRO AND NE NJ. THIS WILL BE PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT/AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TONIGHT...ATTM EXPECT
WETTING RAINS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH REMAIN NW OF NYC. WILL UPDATE
FWF WITH ENHANCED WORDING.

 

Getting very dry out there now.

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Still looks like the strongest departures of the coming cold shot will occur between 10/24 and 10/30.   Still think first frost and freeze likely for many.  Will be close into metro NY/NJ.   Overall guidance continues to look mainly dry or limited precip the next week.  We should see a brief warmup between the first cold shot and perhaps a reload towards Halloween and early Nov.  Beyond there I suspect we see a return toeards more normal temps into the first week of Nov.

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Still looks like the strongest departures of the coming cold shot will occur between 10/24 and 10/30.   Still think first frost and freeze likely for many.  Will be close into metro NY/NJ.   Overall guidance continues to look mainly dry or limited precip the next week.  We should see a brief warmup between the first cold shot and perhaps a reload towards Halloween and early Nov.  Beyond there I suspect we see a return toeards more normal temps into the first week of Nov.

this Octobers temperatures are a far cry from 1964 which I am using as an analog...But precipitation which was a record 0.14" in 1964 is close this year with 0.29"...The month could end up as a top ten driest October...

driest...

0.14" in 1964...la nina winter

0.28" in 1924...la nina winter...

0.43" in 1879...neutral- winter...

0.59" in 1892...la nina winter...

0.66" in 2001...neutral- winter...

0.66" in 1909...la nina winter...

0.67" in 2000...la nina winter...

0.72" in 1897...neutral- winter...

0.78" in 1918...el nino winter...

0.85" in 1946...neutral- winter...

0.88" in 1921...neutral- winter...

out of the eleven driest Octobers only one was an el nino year...The others were neutral negative or la nina years...

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this Octobers temperatures are a far cry from 1964 which I am using as an analog...But precipitation which was a record 0.14" in 1964 is close this year with 0.29"...The month could end up as a top ten driest October...

driest...

0.14" in 1963...el nino winter

0.28" in 1924...la nina winter...

0.43" in 1879...neutral- winter...

0.59" in 1892...la nina winter...

0.66" in 2001...neutral- winter...

0.66" in 1909...la nina winter...

0.67" in 2000...la nina winter...

0.72" in 1897...neutral- winter...

0.78" in 1918...el nino winter...

0.85" in 1946...neutral- winter...

0.88" in 1921...neutral- winter...

out of the eleven driest Octobers only two were el nino years...The others were neutral negative or la nina years...

 

 

Unc -  you mean 63?

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A far as the October warmth goes, it's been so warm that my coldest low was nearly a month ago in September so far this meteorological fall, not to mention it dropped into the 40s at least 6 times in September vs. only twice this month. So given all that, this upcoming cool down is much needed. 

We don't need to jump from September to January in one weekend.

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