MJO812 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Gfs shows snow showers next week for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Gfs shows snow showers next week for the area. That's not good, 2011-2012 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 That's not good, 2011-2012 comes to mind.Relax, while it's a pretty cold run it definitely doesn't show any snow within 100 miles from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Relax, while it's a pretty cold run it definitely doesn't show any snow within 100 miles from NYC. The conditionals were fairly ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 If you are interested in how Typhoon Wipha will effect the Unites States. Please read my blog at liveweatherblogs.com. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Gfs shows snow showers next week for the area. Like that will really happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Like that will really happen Maybe upstate but I doubt it happens in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 A few days ago the GFS showed a sub 996mb noreaster sitting right off the NJ coast. It would have been heavy rain and temps in the 40's/50's. Wonder if the models start to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 12z Euro has mostly pleasant temps the next 7 days with 70's possible on Thursday and most days with highs in the lower 60's. Low's never drop below 40 degress except over 100 miles west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 12z Euro has mostly pleasant temps the next 7 days with 70's possible on Thursday and most days with highs in the lower 60's. Low's never drop below 40 degress except over 100 miles west of NYC. After 7 days the bottom drops. Wouldn't shock me if there were some flakes in the air before the month is done. Even if it did snow, pattern nothing like 2011/12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Gfs shows snow showers next week for the area. You need a massive, wrapped up nor'easter for any shot at wintry precip around the area. "Snow showers" would just be some light cold rain most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 After 7 days the bottom drops. Wouldn't shock me if there were some flakes in the air before the month is done. Even if it did snow, pattern nothing like 2011/12... Sub freezing temps are confined to the lower hudson valley through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 That's a fairly strong cold front showing up in the models for next week. We could see a day or a few with -10 or greater temperature departures. That would be around 51/38 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 12z GGEM has a nice miller A day 9. Snow is confined to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 12z GGEM has a nice miller A day 9. Snow is confined to Canada. It would be weird if snow were anywhere *other* than Canada (save the hills & mountains of northern New England) in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Sub freezing temps are confined to the lower hudson valley through the end of the run. Average lows in the Hudson Valley are in the mid-upper 30's in late October. Some well protected valleys average a bit lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 It would be weird if snow were anywhere *other* than Canada (save the hills & mountains of northern New England) in late October. Well some were churping about snow on the GFS earlier and we did have snow two Octobers ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I wouldn't be overly influenced by the early (October 2011 & November 2012) snowstorms the last two autumns. For the low areas in NE Jersey, NYC proper & Long Island, its pretty rare to have measurable snow prior to December 1st, though trace amounts are common prior to that date. One would likely have to be above the 500' elevation contour to have an even chance (i.e. 50%) at seeing measurable snow before December 1st. Anything can happen, but you get into weather, and sometimes, its best to play the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I wouldn't be overly influenced by the early (October 2011 & November 2012) snowstorms the last two autumns. For the low areas in NE Jersey, NYC proper & Long Island, its pretty rare to have measurable snow prior to December 1st, though trace amounts are common prior to that date. One would likely have to be above the 500' elevation contour to have an even chance (i.e. 50%) at seeing measurable snow before December 1st. Anything can happen, but you get into weather, and sometimes, its best to play the odds. For example, the snow that fell in Central Park last November was the first time measurable snow was recorded there in the last 16 Novembers. Not saying it can't happen...but its like anything else...best to factor an area's climatology into the equation whenever making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 For example, the snow that fell in Central Park last November was the first time measurable snow was recorded there in the last 16 Novembers. Not saying it can't happen...but its like anything else...best to factor an area's climatology into the equation whenever making a forecast. I think its actually easier to get snow in october than a hard freeze along the coast in october ..but yes both are quite rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 I think its actually easier to get snow in october than a hard freeze along the coast in october ..but yes both are quite rare That's actually a fair point. We laugh, but there have been several occasions when the first sub 32 F reading of the year was recorded in the midst of the first snow event of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 We have not seen a temperature of 32 or lower in Central Park in October since 1988...24 years ago...second time this has happened...1941 to 1964 didn't have any freezing days in October...It was done six times in twelve years from 1965 to 1976... Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...1876...321879...291877...291889...321904...321917...321925...291928...321933...321936...281940...301965...321969...311972...321974...311975...311976...291988...31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Sub freezing temps are confined to the lower hudson valley through the end of the run. Think it will end up colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 We have not seen a temperature of 32 or lower in Central Park in October since 1988...24 years ago...second time this has happened...1941 to 1964 didn't have any freezing days in October...It was done six times in twelve years from 1965 to 1976... Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower... 1876...32 1879...29 1877...29 1889...32 1904...32 1917...32 1925...29 1928...32 1933...32 1936...28 1940...30 1965...32 1969...31 1972...32 1974...31 1975...31 1976...29 1988...31 A good deal different outside the heat island out at WSO Upton...who plummeted to 13 F on October 31, 1966 for the all time record low for October <see link> http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/10-octtemp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 A good deal different outside the heat island out at WSO Upton...who plummeted to 13 F on October 31, 1966 for the all time record low for October <see link> http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/10-octtemp.html NYC was 34 on the 30th and 37 on the 31st...it hit 32 on 11/4/66...That 13 degree low on the 31st hides other years with low temps on that date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Yikes. The 18Z GFS has lows in the Mid 20s North of I-80 and West of I-95 and S/E of there will be around 32F, down towards CNJ/NYC/LI. This is for the night of October 25th, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Gfs shows an interesting pattern moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The -EPO continues to be a big player this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The -EPO continues to be a big player this year. test8.gif A.gif That is one massive -EPO for sure, it's great to see those low anomalies near the Aleutian Islands. The ridging is so massive it extends almost all the way to Greenland. Let's hope this is the pattern we get for the winter. Hopefully the -EPO ridge can help raise the PDO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The -EPO continues to be a big player this year. test8.gif A.gif That is one massive -EPO for sure, it's great to see those low anomalies near the Aleutian Islands. The ridging is so massive it extends almost all the way to Greenland. Let's hope this is the pattern we get for the winter. Hopefully the -EPO ridge can help raise the PDO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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