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October 2013 Observations & Discussions


Rtd208

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12z Euro has mostly pleasant temps the next 7 days with 70's possible on Thursday and most days with highs in the lower 60's. Low's never drop below 40 degress except over 100 miles west of NYC.

After 7 days the bottom drops. Wouldn't shock me if there were some flakes in the air before the month is done. Even if it did snow, pattern nothing like 2011/12...

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12z GGEM has a nice miller A day 9. Snow is confined to Canada.

 

 

It would be weird if snow were anywhere *other* than Canada (save the hills & mountains of northern New England) in late October. 

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Sub freezing temps are confined to the lower hudson valley through the end of the run.

 

 

Average lows in the Hudson Valley are in the mid-upper 30's in late October.  Some well protected valleys average a bit lower. 

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I wouldn't be overly influenced by the early (October 2011 & November 2012) snowstorms the last two autumns.  For the low areas in NE Jersey, NYC proper & Long Island, its pretty rare to have measurable snow prior to December 1st, though trace amounts are common prior to that date.  One would likely have to be above the 500' elevation contour to have an even chance (i.e. 50%) at seeing measurable snow before December 1st. 

 

Anything can happen, but you get into weather, and sometimes, its best to play the odds. 

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I wouldn't be overly influenced by the early (October 2011 & November 2012) snowstorms the last two autumns.  For the low areas in NE Jersey, NYC proper & Long Island, its pretty rare to have measurable snow prior to December 1st, though trace amounts are common prior to that date.  One would likely have to be above the 500' elevation contour to have an even chance (i.e. 50%) at seeing measurable snow before December 1st. 

 

Anything can happen, but you get into weather, and sometimes, its best to play the odds. 

 

For example, the snow that fell in Central Park last November was the first time measurable snow was recorded there in the last 16 Novembers.   Not saying it can't happen...but its like anything else...best to factor an area's climatology into the equation whenever making a forecast.    

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For example, the snow that fell in Central Park last November was the first time measurable snow was recorded there in the last 16 Novembers. Not saying it can't happen...but its like anything else...best to factor an area's climatology into the equation whenever making a forecast.

I think its actually easier to get snow in october than a hard freeze along the coast in october ..but yes both are quite rare

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I think its actually easier to get snow in october than a hard freeze along the coast in october ..but yes both are quite rare

 

That's actually a fair point.  We laugh, but there have been several occasions when the first sub 32 F reading of the year was recorded in the midst of the first snow event of the season!

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We have not seen a temperature of 32 or lower in Central Park in October since 1988...24 years ago...second time this has happened...1941 to 1964 didn't have any freezing days in October...It was done six times in twelve years from 1965 to 1976...

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...
1876...32
1879...29
1877...29
1889...32
1904...32
1917...32
1925...29
1928...32
1933...32
1936...28
1940...30
1965...32
1969...31
1972...32
1974...31
1975...31
1976...29
1988...31

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We have not seen a temperature of 32 or lower in Central Park in October since 1988...24 years ago...second time this has happened...1941 to 1964 didn't have any freezing days in October...It was done six times in twelve years from 1965 to 1976...

Octobers with a temp. 32 or lower...

1876...32

1879...29

1877...29

1889...32

1904...32

1917...32

1925...29

1928...32

1933...32

1936...28

1940...30

1965...32

1969...31

1972...32

1974...31

1975...31

1976...29

1988...31

 

A good deal different outside the heat island out at WSO Upton...who plummeted to 13 F on October 31, 1966 for the all time record low for October <see link>

 

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/10-octtemp.html

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A good deal different outside the heat island out at WSO Upton...who plummeted to 13 F on October 31, 1966 for the all time record low for October <see link>

 

http://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/10-octtemp.html

NYC was 34 on the 30th and 37 on the 31st...it hit 32 on 11/4/66...That 13 degree low on the 31st hides other years with low temps on that date...

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The -EPO continues to be a big player this year.

test8.gif

A.gif

That is one massive -EPO for sure, it's great to see those low anomalies near the Aleutian Islands. The ridging is so massive it extends almost all the way to Greenland. Let's hope this is the pattern we get for the winter. Hopefully the -EPO ridge can help raise the PDO as well.

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The -EPO continues to be a big player this year.

test8.gif

A.gif

That is one massive -EPO for sure, it's great to see those low anomalies near the Aleutian Islands. The ridging is so massive it extends almost all the way to Greenland. Let's hope this is the pattern we get for the winter. Hopefully the -EPO ridge can help raise the PDO as well.

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